ginandtacos.com - shut up and drink the gin

MAYBE HE'S RIGHT!

Reactionary racist Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo (I could tell you what party he belongs to, but do I really have to?) recently got in some hot water for saying the following about the city of Miami on noted wingnut rant outlet WorldNetDaily.com.

"Look at what has happened to Miami. It has become a Third World country. You just pick it up and take it and move it someplace. You would never know you're in the United States of America. You would certainly say you're in a Third World country," Tancredo said.

Pretty strong words, Tom! The average non-Republican might find some things to criticize about that statement. But I have to rush to the good Congressman's defense for a minute. He didn't mean it that way. Let me explain.

What he means is that southern Florida conducts elections just like they do in Nicaragua or Mozambique. After all, the Department of Justice just declared southern Florida to be the most corrupt place in America. And there isn't even a close second. Noted corruption capitals like Chicago and New York pale in comparison to the tip of America's wang.

If you're not convinced by the statistics, it's worth noting that Florida's 13th Congressional district race is still undecided because their electronic voting machines mysteriously and inexplicably recorded 18,000 no-votes for the House candidates. Coincidentally enough, the "results" from the voting machines place the Republican candidate just a few hundred votes ahead. Amazing. Even MORE coincidentally, it's Katherine Harris's old district. EVEN MORE COINCIDENTALLY, the 18,000 no-vote ballots voted 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats in other races on the ballot.

I mean this with all sincerity and honesty, South Florida: go fuck yourself. Shut the hell up and stop trying to influence the affairs of our formerly great nation until you can conduct an election that would pass UN Election Observer standards for the average Ukranian parliamentary race.

Tom Tancredo is right. I just don't think he's aware of why he's right.

BLUE BALLS

Looks like Bill Frist is already pulling out (too bad his father didn't do the same! *rimshot*). All that Dobson-fluffing was for naught.

In even better news, looks like Liddy Dole's retarded ass will be heading the NRSC again in 2008. This just in - the Senatorial campaign organization that she ran into the ground in 2006 not only lost SIX SEATS but also lost money doing it! Yep, they're in debt and they're asking for more help just to get out of the red. Try a bake sale, bitch.

Lastly, ginandtacos.com is soon to have a spin-off site - a Family Matters to ginandtacos' Perfect Strangers. It's going to be dedicated to political oddsmaking and it will start out with early analysis of the 2008 Senate, House, and Presidential races. Basically, it'll be Sabato's Crystal Ball with more dick jokes. Whee!

(I bet you totally forgot that Family Matters is technically spun off of Perfect Strangers. It is. Harriet Winslow - the mom on FM - worked at thenewspaper with Cousin Larry from PS.)

CUT HIM SOME SLACK - HE'S A LUMBERJACK

As anyone who has been following the news is already aware, this hasn't been a particularly good fortnight for America's law enforcers. Whether they're tasering Arab college kids, firing off 50 rounds at an unarmed wedding party, or popping a cap in an 88 year old woman in her home, there has been plenty of reason to discuss issues of police and the use of force recently.

Unfortunately, such discussions inevitably end up being reduced to "Look, police officers have a stressful, dangerous job. They have to make snap decisions and it's too easy to second-guess." This is, of course, the conclusion of the argument for those who defend the police in these instances. There's a certain logic to that, I admit. It really is a dangerous, stressful job. No one can dispute that. The logical leap I fail to make, however, is that stressful employment = carte blanche for inappropriate conduct.

While being a cop is certainly hazardous, it's not even close to the most dangerous job in the United States. Not even in the top 10, as a matter of fact. According to the Department of Labor, the 10 jobs in which one is most likely to be killed in the line of work are (fatalities per 100,000 hrs. of work) working on a fishing boat or in the timber industry. Regarding injuries (non-fatal), law enforcement isn't even in the top 25 - being a steel worker seems to offer the highest odds of injury.

Furthermore, according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund there are an average of about 160 law enforcement deaths annually. Is 160 dead police officers a lot? Yes, it is. That's a lot of violence. 160 deaths means that there are approximately 18.2 fatalities per 100,000 hours worked. It indicates that being a law enforcement officer is indeed a dangerous job.

But there are a lot of dangerous jobs. "Police officer" is neither the only one nor the most dangerous. Therefore it makes no sense (here in the reality-based community) that police officers' conduct, when inappropriate, can be justified by the hazards of the job. If a lumberjack or electrician beats the crap out of an unarmed person in the street, does anyone say "Well, they have a very dangerous and stressful job" as an excuse? Well why the hell not? Their jobs are statistically about 500% more dangerous than being a cop.

This isn't really about whether or not police were or were not guilty of using excessive force in any of the recent cases. That's for the courts to decide (*snicker*). The officers involved have already faced discipline - paid administrative leave (the rest of us call that "vacation"). I'm sure the legal system will investigate itself and reassuringly inform us that it found no evidence of wrongdoing. While there's nothing that we can do as individuals to change the attitudes and behavior of people in law enforcement, I think we're all more than capable of contributing to the fight against piss-poor logic and lame excuses.

COALITION OF...AH, FUCK IT. IT'S JUST US.

So Britain's pro-war Labor Party has finally gotten the memo that they need to start covering their asses if they have any hope of future political success. Our anglo cousins are preparing to remove "most" of their 7,000 troop contingent in Iraq (the second-largest force behind our 140,000 troops). Ditto Italy, which currently contributes less than 100.

You forgot Poland! No, we didn't. They're leaving too (900 troops).

The Coalition of the Willing, minus these three nations, will be the United States followed by, in descending order of troop committment:

- United States (140,000)
- South Korea (2600)
- Australia (1400)
- Netherlands (1200)
- Romania (865)
- Denmark (515)
- El Salvador (380)

Awesome! Need I even point out that the overwhelming majority of these "contingents" are non-combat personnel (engineers, medics, etc)?

So much for "Iraqization" of the ground forces. Let the Americanization continue unabated!

SAVE YOUR MONEY, FOOL

I have paid my six matinee dollars to see Christopher Guest's newest, For Your Consideration. In the words of Cypress Hill: save your money, fool.

People in Hollywood seem incapable of understanding the simple truth that the rest of us do not find jokes about Hollywood to be funny. This film is a perfect example of why that always fails. The reason is that there is nothing inherently likeable about Hollywood personalities. Nothing. In fact they're inherently dislikeable - most of them quite strongly.

Best in Show, Waiting for Guffman and A Mighty Wind are three of my favorite movies. They're absolutely hilarious, mostly because there's something inherently funny about dopey old folk musicians, people who go to dog shows, and small town hicks. Contrast that to the newest film. There is absolutely nothing funny about Hollywood agents, vapid producers, and washed-up actors.

First of all, we've never met any of those people. So if they are funny, it would basically be an inside joke for those making the film. Second, what we do know about those people suggests that they are vapid, soulless, and unspeakably vain. Ha ha! That's hilarious. Wait. No it isn't.

This movie is about 4% funny (basically whenever this guy was on screen) and 96% depressing. I cannot imagine what Christopher Guest was thinking. Why did he think we would be amused by actors getting dicked around by a cruel, manipulative system and then ending up suicidal and alcoholic? Honestly, if anyone can make it to the end of this film and tell me what's supposed to be funny about Catherine O'Hara I'd like to hear it.

The kindest I can be to this film is to say that it is a joke I didn't get. More accurately, though, I'm not sure there were any jokes at all. What a waste of a hilarious cast.

RICHES AWAIT YOU

Believe it or not, I'm kind of a luddite and I've never bothered to learn many of the intricacies of this blogging thing. If anyone can help me out in protecting the ginandtacos comments from annoying spam, you will receive a tremendous prize. So tremendous, in fact, that the true extent of it will only be comprehended centuries hence.

LOOK OUT, DENNIS MILLER!

Fox News is prepping a conservative answer to the Daily Show. If it's anywhere near as awesome as the right-wing response to leftist punk and anti-war music then we are in for one hilarious show.

I only hope it somehow incorporates neoconservative stand-up comedian Julia Gorin! She is just so goddamn funny I can barely stand it!

(Author's note: stand-up comedians whose acts are made up almost entirely ( > 75%) of laughing at their own jokes and egging the crowd into applause breaks with phrases like "Am I right, people?" make me want to tunnel to the Earth's core and ignite an explosive powerful enough to turn our planet into soccer ball-sized chunks of uninhabitability.)

POPTONES

I'm sick of talking about politics. Or reading about it. Or getting angry about it, which is a permanent side-effect of talking or reading about it. This post is about Dick Clark.

OK, the Ageless One is only tangental to the point, which is that you need to watch this video (also available in much less awful mpeg quality here or here) if you've never seen it before. What is it? Why, it's none other than Public Image, Ltd. - maybe the most underappreciated band of my brief but expanding lifetime - on American Bandstand. In his later years (i.e., right now) Clark called this "surrealist" performance one of his 10 favorite episodes in the show's history.

How did PiL end up on American Bandstand? Apparently the answer is that they never saw American Bandstand and American Bandstand never saw PiL. We can imagine, then, that PiL were none-too-happy when they found out they were expected to lip-synch their "hits" ("Poptones" and "Careering") for a studio audience. We can also imagine that Dick Clark was equally unhappy to learn that PiL's music is bizarre, completely atonal, and utterly unlovable.

For those who don't feel like watching this 9 minute clip, the band make absolutely no effort to play along. They swap instruments as John Lydon heads straight into the seats, mouths words to the song (sans microphone), and organizes some sort of bizarre game of Red Rover. After a completely surreal "meet the band" interlude where Dick Clark introduces everyone (including a massively stoned Keith Levene) they go into "Careering." By this point Lydon is just standing around chatting with audience members, most of whom are dancing on stage.

I wasn't cognizant of things on TV when this happened, but I am pretty convinced that until Twin Peaks came along this is the most surreal thing that had ever been on network television. Enjoy it. It is not politics.

(PS - While we're at it, can someone please tell me what f'n planet Jah Wobble is from? I can't imagine the amount of drugs one would have to do to come up with those bass lines. But maybe it all came naturally to a man who got booted from the band after he set their drummer on fire. He set the fuckin' drummer on fire. Top that.)

STANLEY SPIDOWSKI LOSES IT

Well, so much for Michael Richards' career. Then again, you probably could have safely said the same thing the minute Seinfeld went off the air.

Enjoy the video! Not even close to Work-Safe!

LET ME GUESS....

OK, I give up. Where did you find this fucking idiot, Lexington Herald-Leader?

Post-doctoral fellow at Harvard? MacArthur Foundation board member? Mensa?

Am I at least getting warm? Don't tell me the answer. I want to keep guessing. This is fun.

IF YOU'RE HAVIN' GIRL PROBLEMS...

I'm pretty convinced that this graph is the funniest thing ever.

MAYDAY! MAYDAY! WE'VE LOST ENGINE #2!

Week 2 of the Right-Wing Meltdown is showing no signs of being less entertaining than the first.

The GOP is pretty messed up, right? Everywhere you look there's corruption, the evil scourge of homosexuality, and a general failure to support the Culture of Life. Well it's good to hear that someone is mad as hell and isn't going to take it anymore.

Ladies and gentlemen, 2008 Republican Presidential hopeful Bob Dornan! Yes, "B-1 Bob"! Bat-shit Bob, more accurately. You might remember him, the red-faced lunatic who serviced the defense industry directly from the Congressional glory hole for almost two decades. You can see some of his greatest hits if you need to refresh your memory.

Thanks Bob. We needed someone to rally the GOP around a good ol' fashioned Adultery and Homosexuality witchhunt. As always, you're the man for that job!

I'M TOUGH BUT FAIR

Looks like a little bird inside Fox decided to leak the Wednesday morning-after-election talking points to Huffington Post.

I don't give two flying shits how fascist it sounds - when I'm president we're rounding up everyone involved with that network and putting them through a wood chipper. Why? 'Cause fuck'em, that's why.

PILOT TO GUNNER! WE'RE BREAKING UP! EJECT!

As a follow-up to this morning's post re: the Frayed Ends of Republican Sanity, send some tea and get-well cards to Hugh Hewitt over at TownHall blog. He's completely gone in the head. To wit, here's his Wednesday morning-after post. An excerpt:

President Bush will not flag in the pursuit of the war, and Senator Santorum is now available for a seat on the SCOTUS should one become available. GOP senators will have the chance to select leadership equal to the new world of politics which, as the past two years have demonstrated, does not reward timidity.

Boy, sounds like a great thing that the Republicans got hammered, Hugh! You found that silver lining pretty quickly! Let me translate - that Santorum is "now available" means he's fuckin' unemployed. Was he not "available" before? But really, I'm engaging in a pointless semantic argument here. Not to mention that I'm mocking a man who is clearly mentally ill.

Who's at the top of the list of qualified and confirmable Supreme Court nominees? Rick Santorum! Rick "I took family pictures with my stillborn baby" Santorum. Rick "Least popular man in my home state" Santorum.

Hugh Hewitt, you've crossed the line from regular Conservative Blogger insane to pickin'-peanuts-out-of-shit insane. And you have pancake man-boobs.

IT'S COMING DOWN

The fragile supporting columns of sanity underneath the conservative blogosphere are crumbling in a hurry.

Exhibit A: Turns out that the guy who sent threatening letters filled with white powder to numerous lefty celebrities (including Keith Olbermann, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jon Stewart) is....none other than Free Republic's very own Chad Castagana! Have fun in prison, Chad. Watch your cornhole! Here's his Free Republic bio (since removed):

I am a lifelong Conservative Republican .

I have an Associates Degree in the Science of Electronics .

Ann Coulter is a Goddess and I worship Laura Ingraham and Michele Malkin .

English is the langauge of the United States of America- - our Declaration of Independence and our Constitution are written in the langauge that expresses our civilized freedoms .

Spanish is the language of Banana Republics, beyond that it belongs in a European country.

Exhibit B: Remember when Power Line, Michelle Malkin, La Shawn Barber, and dozens of other right-wing bloggers were going apoplectic over the "Terri Schiavo Memo" in which Congressional Republicans discussed how to use the corpse-woman for political gain? It was fake! they said. Democrats wrote it, or the media fabricated it! Oops. Mel Martinez wrote it. Let's do a quick fact-check....of which party is the Senator from Florida currently a member?

(Note on Musical Accompaniment to this Post: As soon as I typed the title of this entry, I was siezed by an uncontrollable need to listen to the Danzig song of the same name. It's been a long time, man, and let me tell you - Chuck Biscuits just fuckin' rescues that early Danzig stuff. It takes a pretty incredible drummer to make me put up with an ass-clown like Glenn, but.....damn.)

LET THE MELTDOWN BEGIN!

In the wake of the 2004 election Mike K. did a nice job highlighting the best in liberal meltdowns. I feel it's only fair to do the same for 2006.

The granddaddy Lifetime Achievement Award Super-Mega-Burnout for 2006 absolutely has to go to Jonah Goldberg over at National Review. He has written the best non-ironic, dead-serious imitation of The Onion's "I am fucking insane" article since Ol' Dirty Bastard penned "Here Comes the Judge." You can practically picture him smearing his own shit on his chest and running around in a loincloth as you read this little gem. Yes, George W. Bush certainly could do that, Jonah. If not for the fact that he is a gigantic pussy, just like Jonah Goldberg, Sean Hannity, and every other warmongering right-wing suburban war-hawk white guy. Wouldn't W need to have his dad call in James Baker to show him how to skin the bear?

Next, let's give a collective award to Fox News for the following bit. This seems like prime evidence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. I prescribe a 2-week vacation and a cement mixer full of Zoloft for the entire network.

Let's also pick on Morty Kondracke and Fred Barnes as prototypical examples of the incessant "the country is now doomed, and here is our spin on why the White House actually won the election - and if you don't buy that, here's some spin about how our Dear Leader was Shanghaied by a left-wing election-stealing machine" memes. Look at those awful partisan liberals. Refusing to confirm a good man like John Bolton? We can't figure out which motivates them - spite or treason - but it has to be one of the two!

Lastly, I am STILL SEARCHING for the video or a transcript of Shepard Smith losing his f'n mind on Fox News circa 1 AM EST on election night. If ANYONE can locate transcripts or video of his bizarre soliloquy, I'll seriously pony up something significant as a reward. I'm not up on the Tivo technology, but is it possible to retrieve old programming? I'm checking with the Vanderbilt TV News Archive but they don't yet have a tape of full election coverage.....

Boy Genius.

Remember that article about the Republicans mocking Democrats for living in the "reality-based community" (where they "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality")? I always thought that may have been a bit unfair, since the quote was from an unnamed aide to the President. But then I see this interview NPR did with Karl "Fixing up my resume" Rove right before the election (transcript here):

SIEGEL: We are in the home stretch though and many would consider you on the optimistic end of realism about...
ROVE: Not that you would exhibit a bias, you just making a comment.
SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.
ROVE: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.
SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races...
ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.
SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your...
ROVE: I said THE math.

Evidently Rove's faith-based mathematics, based on internal secret polls that I'm sure were in no way biased towards those who were paying for it, lost out to the reality-based ones.

MACACANS 1, REPUBLICANS 0

Allen's giving up. First smart thing he's ever done, I think.

It's readily apparent that he's not going to make up enough votes in a recount - Webb picked up a few hundred in the initial counts. So basically we're looking at a potential recount process that will take 8 weeks, drive everyone nuts, and STILL result in an Allen loss. Talk about bad publicity for the GOP.

Besides, Allen is such a black mark on his party at this point that the last thing they want is a month or two of Georgie being the lead story on the news every night. He's embarassed himself and his colleagues in just about every way imaginable, and a protracted recount would be an exercise in the media reviewing every asinine thing he's said and done. Not smart.

See you later, dickhead.

IT'S SO HAAAAAAAAARD TO SAY GOODBYE

Wait. No it isn't.

Sayonara, fuckface. It's been swell. Wait. No it hasn't.

LESSON LEARNED

The Democrats learned one very important thing from W in 2000: declare victory, and do it as soon as practicable.

Tester and Webb have declared victory in MT and VA after the last remaining uncounted votes from Tuesday were tallied. Tester's 3,000 vote margin is unlikely to disappear in sparsely-populated Big Sky country. Webb's declaration of victory is a bit more tenuous. He leads by about 7,000 out of 2.3 million votes cast. That's considerably more iffy. But by declaring victory and showing a lead at this moment, he psychologically establishes himself as the "legitimate" claimant and the losing Allen as the "sore loser" challenger. Worked wonders in 2000, and it should do the same here.

Due to some complicated election rules in VA, no recounts can begin until after 11/27. Here's hoping that George Allen has enough decency to concede and not turn this into a 2-month fiasco.

Who the fuck are we kidding. George Allen has no decency at all. Get ready.

RUMINATIONS

1a. Did anyone else catch Shepard Smith losing his f'n mind on Fox News at about 1 AM (EST)? He looked like his head was going to explode and went on some bizzare, incomprehensible 90-second rant about how the Democrats will need to find a leader to step up and realize that the war we are in is a war for the existence of our civilization. After that it became essentially impossible to understand, as he threw disconnected batches of words at the screen while choking back tears and bile.

1b. I came to the stunning and somewhat sad realization last night that, in voting for Baron Hill in my Congressional race, it marked the first time in my life that I have voted for someone for President, Senate, or Congress who actually won. Mind you, I have voted in every election after 1994. Unfuckingbelievable.

2. Whatever happens in Montana and Virginia, I hope to God it is decided by the recounts and not by the courts. I don't think America can take another 6-week vote-counting debacle that is ultimately decided by a nonsensical ruling from a Republican judge.

3. Where did I go wrong with the Senate calls? Well, in Tennessee I did the classic bet-with-your-heart-instead-of-your-brain. I really like Harold Ford and I wanted him to win. All signs indicated otherwise, though. In New Jersey, I think I've learned something about underestimating the power of corrupt but incredibly powerful Democratic urban turnout machines. Kean was the better candidate, but the GOP's disadvantages in that state are just too huge. Lesson learned.

4. When the smoke clears, the Democrats will have about 30-32 House gains. They did better than expected thanks to a strong showing out west. WY-At Large will end up being decided in a recount and is incredibly close. That the Republicans could end up hanging on for dear life in such a seat is stunning.

5. The miracle of gerrymandering in action: of California's 53 House seats, exactly one changed party control. One. But it was a big one - noted lunatic defense industry hooker Dick Pombo was taken down. In Illinois, none of the 19 seats flipped.

6. I hate Joe Lieberman. Jesus H Tap-Dancing Christ on a Crutch, do I ever hate Joe Lieberman.

The ever changing financial market.

Perhaps everyone simply thought that Mike and I would sit on our laurels and wait for the results of today’s election. That was definitely a faulty opinion. We have actively been trading in this free market of election results hoping to maximize our final 2006 midterm election profits.

I am going to give a quick update on what we have done.

• Late last night we had made some money on our gamble that the Democrats would win the senate. So, naturally, we sold them out hard. Took our profits and strengthened our position that Democrats would take at least 20 seats in the house.

• We also noticed some severe pricing irregularities in Rhode Island. The Wall Street Journal was telling us that Chaffee (R) had the momentum in the race. He was also strongly undervalued. As a result, we sold Whitehouse (D) and took a position in favor of Chaffee, it was simply an economic no brainer.
  
  
  Come on Chaffee! You're now our guy!
  

• Changing position on the Rhode Island race freed up some money for another decent investment. We are now in favor of the Democrats taking the house while the Republicans retain the senate. Mathematically it makes sense; the Democrats will almost surely take the house (even fox news agrees). However, to take the senate they would essentially have to win three coin flip elections. Statistically this is a 12.5% chance, whereas the position was valued at 41%. We also used this money to strengthen our position that the Democrats would take at least 25 seats in the house.

• We thought we had found a good value, so we purchased Democrat Ben Cardin (on Ed's advice) in Maryland.

• Earlier today market fluctuations left us with a wonderful opportunity to back out of or hedge in the House of 30 seats. We moved this back to 35 seats at no cost to us. We are at slightly more risk if the Democrats don't win at least 20 seats, but we do much better if they beat 30.

• Everything else that isn't mentioned is unchanged. Honestly how could we possibly go against Ed's gut in TN?
  
  Capitalism at Work!
  
  Posted by Erik at 05:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

The American (and partially the Irish) Way.

Mike and I haven't really posted anything on ginandtacos.com for quite some time. It is not that we don't have anything to say, but...no actually it is mostly because we don't have anything to say.

However, all of that changed this evening when we went to Taco Bell to enjoy several of their new menu entree the "Cheesy Gordita Crunch". For the record, the commericals where the texture of said food item is debated are valid in so much as the texture does tend to change in every example of this Gordita, and often within one sample. More to the point, this fine bit of Mexican food got us thinking about the fact that neither of us intended to vote tomorrow. Its not that we don't care, its just that we both kind of forgot to register.

We felt bad not being involved in the democratic process, so obviously we responded the only way we knew how.

By placing 100 American Dollars into the futures market for 2006 midterm election results via a somewhat shady Irish website. We are at least 85% certain that it was legal.

click the above image to see the full resolution image of Mike and Erik buying a Democratic senate
(technically selling the Republicans keeping control)

It seemed quite obvious to us. Mike is obtaining a Masters degree in Financial Engineering, Ed had already supplied us with a bunch of sure fire "winners" and I- well I decided it was exceptionally amusing and was willing to risk 50 of those American dollars.

So here is how it transpired. After we became 85% certain that this was legal, and there was a good likely hood that we could actually get the money back from the Irish, Mike created a 100 dollar account. It was a good sign when his bank accepted the transfer of money (at least we think it was a good sign). When looking at the site, there are options to buy or sell contracts on pretty much every race, and other various overriding situations (for example: the Democrats taking at least 24.5 seats in the house). If you are buying a contract it means you are purchasing your opinion that the event will happen. If you sell a contract it means you are assuming the event will not happen. The moral is that I could simultaneously buy a contract saying that Rod Blagojevich is going to win the Illinois gubernatorial race and sell contracts saying Judy Baar Topinka will win. Mike and I did not do this. That would have been stupid. I am fairly certain even Judy Baar Topinka's mother knows she is going to lose. Hence, we would make absolutely no money. We needed to find positions that were fairly volatile, and where Ed had picked the winner in his previous post.

As much as Mike and I are proud to be Americans and were taking great pride in doing our civic duty, we also wanted to make a lot of money. The only way to do this was to place sums of money "against the market". We believed we had superior information (Ed's previous post on election results). We were taking obvious cues from Ed's past performance:

Proven Past Winner

So here is what we did:

Ed tells us that the Democrats are going to win between 23 and 25 seats in the House.

So we took a strong position on the Democrats winning 19.5 seats, a weak position on Democrats winning 24.5 seats. And actually sold contracts on the Democrats winning more than 29.5 seats. Essentially we are putting our money on the Democrats taking between 20-30 seats. That's going to be fun to watch.

The market is saying (in a dramatic fashion) that the Democrats are going to hang onto New Jersey. Mike and I trust Ed's opposite analysis of the race and sold contracts to people believing Bob Menendez would win - we invested in the democrats losing. The margin was better than simply investing in Tom Kean.

Ed Believes that Lincoln Chaffee's luck has run out. That was a position we could invest the hell out of. Particularly since most people in the market still thought Mr. Chaffee had a bit of luck.

Here is a really interesting one. Ed proclaimed his gut was in favor of Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee. I have seen many bottles of Robert Burnet's London Dry Gin processed by Ed's gut. Even though the market is only 15% certain this will happen, we invested in Ed's gut much like his gut invested in many Taco Bell Grande Meals throughout the years.

We invested in Jim Webb in Virginia. We really did not like the political stylings of George "I hate the negros" Allen, and this race was trading at 50-50. Sounded good to us.

Finally, just so that we felt we were doing right by the Democrats we have picked them to win the senate. I know that this is in direct contrast with Ed's opinion, and our pick of Tom Kean in New Jersey, but what the hell. It wasn't a lot of money.

If you are bored with watching traditional exit poll results tomorrow. Take a quick look at some live updating graphs of Mike and My position in the futures market. Bare in mind our position was purchased around 9pm.

Oh, and despite having never watched it and aren't even entirely certain what the format of the show is, we invested money in Joey Lawrence taking it all in Dancing with the Stars.

Here are updating graphs of our official positions: Capitalism at Work!

WHO ARE YOU TO ARGUE WITH SOUTH CAROLINA?

You're nobody, that's who. The State, which calls itself "South Carolina's Homepage," recommends ginandtacos.com. I fear looking around to see what else they recommend.

Also, hey look! Mike and Erik posted something! While its true that they've come out of the woodwork to make fun of my 2004 predictions, if that's what it takes then so be it.

THE END

So the campaign is over and within 36 hours you will have voted. Ginandtacos takes this opportunity to serve the public with a review of competitive House and Senate races one final time. We have also put our political oddsmaking balls on the line by making predictions in competitive races - predictions that, come Wednesday, will either leave us open to severe mockery or provide even more evidence of why we rule.

See previous posts on this subject for a review of non-competitive races. To economize time and effort, they will not be re-hashed here.

House
You don't need to be Jane Fonda to realize that the GOP has already resigned itself to losing the House. I've not met anyone - even the staunchest Republicans among my friends - who would bet a nickel on their party retaining the lower chamber. The question becomes one of magnitude.

Now, as ginandtacos.com is a free public service, I never did find the time to do a run-down of the 40-50 competitive House races. So rather than bogging down in the details now, I'll focus on the House as a whole.

Believe it or not, there is a slight chance of the Republicans retaining control. I emphasize that it is very slight. Basically, I see 45 races that are legitimately competitive. Out of that group, the Democrats' 95% confidence interval is between +40 and +10. That is, it's 95% likely that they'll gain between 10 and 40 seats in the House. Note that a gain of less than 16 would leave the GOP in control of the chamber by a slim margin.

The most likely prediction, and the one ginandtacos will run with, is a gain of +23 to +25 seats. The end result will be Democratic control by a margin of 8-10 seats - not a huge margin, but enough to send Denny Hastert to the backbench.

The barometer races are:

IN09 - Sodrel (R) v. Hill

IN08 - Hostettler (R) v. Ellsworth

ID01 - Sali (R) v. Grant (open seat)

IL06 - Roskum (R) v. Duckworth

WY00 - Cubin (R) v. Trauner v. Rankin (L)

If the Democrats split those races, they're looking at moderate gains overall. If they win all five, then it's likely that they've won closer to 40-45 seats. Please note that the odds of that happening are minimal.

Senate
For those of you who want to cut to the chase, ginandtacos is going with a Senate breakdown of 50R, 48D, 2 I (Democratic caucus). Basically I think this is going to turn into an enormous cluster-fuck. Neither party will emerge from Tuesday with a real advantage. Even if the Democrats take a 51-49 edge, the questionable Democratic loyalties of Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) make it plausible for the GOP to re-take the chamber via party-switching. It's just going to be a mess. Sorry, we calls it like we sees it.

Connecticut - Joe Lieberman (I) appears to be inevitable here. I am not willing to write Lamont off completely because polling in 3-way races is notoriously inaccurate. But Lieberman certainly looks like he will hang on provided Schlesinger (R) doesn't steal too many moderate/conservative votes. Lamont (D) just ran out of gas, like so many out-of-nowhere anti-war candidates have done historically. Joe L says he will remain with the Democrats, but nothing else the man has ever said has been believable. I see him being courted heavily by the GOP and either switching parties or refusing to seat with the Democrats. Little piss-ants like Lieberman just love the attention and power that being the deciding vote provides.

Prediction: Lieberman (Democrats retain seat)

Washington - Maria Cantwell (D) was beatable on paper, but not in 2006. Mike McGavick spent millions and still hasn't sniffed her coattails yet.

Prediction: Cantwell (Democrats retain seat)

Virginia - George "I hate the negroes" Allen (R) has really just fallen apart. If he hangs on, it will be by a thread. This might be the hardest race to call. By all rights Allen has no business winning this race given how terribly he's campaigned, but here's a guy who was a 2008 Presidential contender just 6 months ago. It's almost impossible to picture a fall from grace so severe that now he might not win his Senate seat. Jim Webb (D) has campaigned as strongly and as well as any Democrat could in VA. I'm just not convinced that it's enough. I go with Webb, but this is basically a coin flip. It's amazing that it's come to this. Allen's campaign will go down as one of the worst in American history. He literally did everything wrong.

Prediction: Webb by a hair (Democrats take Republican seat)

Montana - Conrad Burns (R) has the late momentum. The GOP is spending boatloads to turn out the anti-gun control, socially conservative rural base. Unfortunately I think it's too little, too late. Burns is just a classic case of a politician going Washington and losing touch with his state. Ask Tom Daschle if that's a bad reputation to have. Jon Tester (D) has just out-campaigned Burns from start to finish. You'll hear from him in the future.

Prediction: Tester (Democrats take Republican seat)

Ohio - Mike DeWine (R) has essentially been written off. Sherrod Brown (D) ran a mistake-free campaign and has basically left DeWine and the rest of the Ohio GOP with enough rope to hang itself. It worked.

Prediction: Brown (Democrats take Republican seat)

Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum (R) has never really been in this race. He won't get blown out like the polls have been indicating, but he's not winning this one.

Prediction: Casey, Jr. (Democrats take Republican seat)

Missouri - Jim Talent (R) v. Claire McCaskill (D) is probably the second-hardest race to call. They're just such a bland, unmemorable pair of candidates that it's hard to say voters have strong feelings one way or another. Two things lead me to conclude that McCaskill will win. First, the national climate is negative for the GOP and Missouri is famous for being a bellwether state. Second, Libertarian Frank Gilmore will get a couple percent of the conservative vote. Talent's virtual anonymity is his downfall.

Prediction: McCaskill (Democrats take Republican seat)

Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee's (R) luck runs out. Rhode Island is the most Democratic state in the union based on 2004, and that will finally be enough to overcome the fact that most of its residents genuinely like Chaffee. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) did a good job of keeping the focus on Bush and Iraq.

Prediction: Whitehouse (Democrats take Republican seat)

Tennessee - The numbers say Corker will pull this one out - he's had momentum in recent polls. But my gut says Ford has this one by a hair. His organization in Memphis and the western half of the state should turn out voters who don't normally show up in off-year elections.

Prediction: Ford (Democrats take Republican seat)

New Jersey - Here's another ball-buster. Bob Menendez (D) benefits from incumbent-party status and living in a very liberal state. The Democratic party also has a fearsome urban machine in place in the major cities. But Tom Kean (R) is just more likeable and a better politician. Period. He's just more personable and more professional than Menendez. Having a famous politican name doesn't hurt - Tom Kean Sr. is still revered in New Jersey. The Democrats think they have this one, but to a man I bet they're sweating like whores in church over it.

Prediction: Kean (Republicans take Democratic seat)

Minnesota - This one really veered away from "competitive" and turned into a non-entity. Mark Kennedy is too far out there to win a liberal state in a liberal year.

Prediction: Kloubchar (Democrats retain seat)

Maryland - Here's another tough one. It's very similar to NJ. Maryland is a liberal state and this is an open Democratic seat. Ben Cardin (D) should be cake-walking. But Mike Steele (R) has just run a much better campaign. He's more likeable and he's appealed to suburban voters very well. Cardin is a stiff who hasn't excited anyone and isn't even garnering much enthusiasm in his Democratic base. This should be a 65%-to-35% race, but it's basically going to be 51%-49%. Steele has been teriffic, but this state is just too liberal and the national climate is too unfavorable for the GOP. Steele is someone you will hear from in the future.

Prediction: Cardin (Democrats retain seat)

Fin
That's +5 for the Democrats (counting Lieberman) and a 50-50 Senate. Even if Menendez pulls out NJ to leave us with 51D, 49R the situation will still be a mess, and the political pressure on fence-riders will be even greater. When the balance of power in our great nation is left in the hands of shitheads like Joe Lieberman, we can't expect much beyond gridlock, inefficiency, and mass confusion to ensue. May God have mercy on our souls.

Posted by Ed at 10:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

CRITICAL (M)ASS

How deep into the barrel of things to cover/sample must we dig before modern hip-hop artists are forced to actually start writing their own songs?

Every 6 months, something new comes out and causes me to say "OK, it can't really get worse than this." Then a few months later, it gets worse. To wit: Trick Daddy's homage to the Talking Heads' "Sugar." I am convinced that this song is personally responsible for Jesus refusing to come back for another couple of years. He turned to God and said "Did you hear that fuckin' song, dad? I'm not going back. These people don't deserve to be saved."

UHHH. Put tha sugar on my tongue, tongue...

Then came the Black Eyed Peas cover of "Misrilou." Well, let's just say every Black Eyed Peas song counts. Have they ever done anything that wasn't a cover? Are they even a real band or are they just a CGI-animated corporate logo created to endorse every product on Earth?

And now, we've reached endgame: Gnarls Barkley covering noted hip-hop icons and pioneers the Violent Femmes. If you have been staying up nights thinking that the world needs a sorta-rapped version of "Gone Daddy Gone," prepare to sleep easy.

In light of this aggressively awful monstrosity, I think ginandtacos needs to start a pool guessing the next unlikely song to be turned into a hip-hop smash. The Kingston Trio's "Sloop John B?" Or how about a little ABBA? "Fernando" perhaps? Or maybe we can delve into the catalog of the 70s horn bands. Chicago? I'm putting good money on a 50 Cent version of "If You Leave Me Now."

I kid, I kid. Everyone mentioned herein is a great musician, and I'm just jealous of their phenomenal talents.

YAWWWWWWWWWWN

I'm bored to death with far right-wing social conservatives turning out to be closet queers, wife beaters, drunks, pedophiles, or adulterers. It's so damn predictable. If you haven't quite figured it out yet, please realize one thing: anyone that far to the right is hiding something. Period.

So apparently Ted Haggard, President of the National Association of Evangelicals, likes the gay hookers. And meth. It's nearly impossible for me to summon up the strength to mock him and point out the hypocrisy. Wow, another virulently anti-gay Jerry Falwell knockoff secretly likes the dick. Haven't we heard this before?

Tell me I've been bad

What the fuck is wrong with these people? It's like they can't get it up unless they think that whatever sex act they're about to consummate is going to condemn them to hell.

"Hey congregation! Gay marriage is a sick, perverse sin!" (*Oooh, I'm a dirty dog. Tell me I'm a bad boy....*)

"Be sure to vote Republican, folks!" (*Oooh, I'm a nasty liar...you better punish me, Mr. Gay Hooker*)

"Marriage is between a man and a woman! Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve!" (*Mmmmm, I love it when you make me lick your balls*)

Something tells me that in about 20 years, christian fundamentalism is going to be considered a fetish rather than a religion. It's obviously less an interpretation of the Bible than it is a precondition to its adherents getting hard.

CAN'T SPELL 'COMEDY' WITHOUT 'HARD GAY'

About a month ago, someone asked me if there were any (living) comedians I actually like. For someone who is a comedian, said person was understandably confused by the fact that I apparently hate every comedian on Earth. David Cross? So fuckin' overrated, it hurts. Dane Cook? Get me a rifle. Carlos Mencia? I've taken shits that made me laugh more. Lewis Black? Basically a decade-long version of Chris Farley's "van down by the river" character that struggled to stay funny for 3 minutes.

Basically, modern stand-up comedy is a group of people who are so f'n bad as a whole that anyone who's even halfway decent (Sarah Silverman, Cross, LouisCK, Eddie Griffin, Daniel Tosh) ends up being treated like the reincarnation of Lenny Bruce. Yes, they're funny. No, they're not anything special.

So I'm losing a lot of faith in stand-up. Mostly because I blow at it, but moreso because everyone else seems to blow at it too these days. For some strange reason, I've been getting most of my giggles out of people with bizarre and/or retarded comedy alter-ego characters. Sort of like Sacha Baron Cohen, only, you know, funny. What? FUCK YOU. No. He's not funny. Borat isn't funny - it's Yakov Smirnov with a big budget. Ali G isn't funny. And go watch "Talladega Nights" if you REALLY need proof of how piss-poor this man's comedic skills are. Just marvel at how everything on screen dies every time he opens his mouth. Amazing, really.

Anyway.

I love Hard Gay. Go ahead and take that last sentence out of context, please. Hard Gay (aka Masakai Sumitani) is the kind of ridiculous shit that Americans think of when we think of Japanese TV. I spent the better part of this past summer watching Hard Gay clips on YouTube. Whether he's using his skills to help out local businesses, reminding Japan of the importance of Father's Day, interacting uncomfortably with children, or engaging in Hard Gay Social Improvement, this man is just plain hilarious. Of course you also get the comedy bonus of awkward Engrish translation. The character is offensive and completely demeaning to gays. And funny.

On a completely different note, I'm almost as obsessed with Nardwuar lately. Canadian comedian and complete jackass John Ruskin (yes, his parents really named him John Ruskin) legally changed his name to Nardwuar the Human Serviette years ago - and when anyone calls him John, he points out (loudly) that no one calls Iggy Pop "James Osterberg." Basically, this guy is really, REALLY annoying until you reach some tipping point at which you realize he's brilliant. He's an ambush interviewer who focuses on politicians and musicians. He's also intelligent as shit and likes to freak people out by asking them questions about obscure aspects of their past. He gets a lot of "how the fuck did you find out about that?" looks. A lot. He also gets threatened with physical violence a lot. The best moments come when he interviews unsuspecting people who don't know whether to take him seriously or call the cops. His interview with Panic at the Disco is priceless.

What? You need a stand-up fix? Fine. Russell Peters. He'll be huge soon, I promise.