Our position.

Here are our positions. Please, please, please do not do any gambling ever, and especially on our information. That is our disclaimer. Spend your money in wiser places, like in index funds or bars featuring dollar-beer nights.

More accurately: "the material here have no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any visitor. These sites are published solely for informational purposes and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. References made to third parties are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Visitors should not regard it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this site are subject to change without notice."

Ahem. The "Price" is what percent it is likely that said event takes place. If we clarify "SOLD", we'd like to see the value go to zero, otherwise we'd like it to get to 100. Note that the times are Irish times, ahem.

First up, we believe we'll have a net gain of 23-25 seats for the Democrats, so we are bullish on Democrats taking over 20 seats, slightly less bullish on them taking over 25, and we sold (them out) on Democrats gaining 30 seats.

-This position has changed. We are stronger at 20, stronger at 25, and we aren't selling the Democrats out until 35.

DEMOCRATS 20 SEATS

DEMOCRATS 25 SEATS

DEMOCRATS 35 SEATS – SOLD

We very quickly realized that our patriotic duty could be purchased by making 2 dollars on our investment in the Democrats taking the senate. We are now invested in the Democrats taking only the house and the GOP holding onto the senate.

DEMOCRATS GAIN HOUSE, REPUBLICANS KEEP SENATE

RHODE ISLAND (technically the same graph, but we're now selling shares of Whitehouse)

MARYLAND

UNCHANGED-

NJ SENATE RACE – SOLD

TENNESSEE

VIRGINIA


JOEY LAWRENCE

Camp.

Slate on Thursday had a special summer camp issue, with several articles on the camping experience. Two things of note:

1) Their excellent cultural editor, Meghan O'Rouke, writes about going to (her phrase) "nerd camp", a camp for only the top 3% of academic students in the country:

But the fundamental enterprise remained a shared one, and the weekly dances were, as a friend recently put it, wondrous displays of group awkwardness. In our day, each concluded with either "Sympathy for the Devil," "Ana Ng," or "American Pie,"

If the thought of a group of honors-honors kids dancing around to They Might Be Giants at a forced social doesn't make your secret (or not so secret) inner 13 year old nerd happy, I don't know what will. (re-watch the video for Ana Ng if you've forgotten how much fun tmbg are at times – the desk pounding and the weird hop walk at 2m18s are so wonderful).

2) Summer camp stories, especially about nerd camps, give me an opportunity to dust off my favorite thing I've done for this page, from back in 2000, the time I encouraged the kids in my Computer Summer Camp section to write essays I promised would not get censored or reviewed by parents.

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Here's what they wrote. They certainly had their finger on the pulse of the immigration debate.

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Sending messages.

I'm sure you all have reasons for supporting the Constitutional Ban on Gay Marriage. Here is one you probably haven't thought of: The recent fighting in the Middle East. Quote Rep. Gingrey:

The Democrats accused Republicans of raising the issue even as they ignored what the Democrats said were more pressing problems, including the war in Iraq, an expanding conflict in the Middle East, high gasoline prices and North Korean missile tests.

But Representative Jack Kingston, Republican of Georgia, said the marriage issue was “just as important and a top-tier issue as any of those.

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Another Georgia Republican, Representative Phil Gingrey, said support for traditional marriage “is perhaps the best message we can give to the Middle East and all the trouble they’re having over there right now.”

I also think that repealing the Death Tax and opening up ANWR for drilling will help with the situation in Darfur personally. It's the second best message we could send.

Ghouls come out at night.

I'll leave it for you to judge: Is this too horrible to turn away from?

Too endearing not to be moved by?

Too interesting to not stop reading?

My Death Space, a complete directory of people who have died on myspace and now have memorial webpages (you can see the list of recent updates too).

I've been told by avid watchers that you can try and predict deaths over time – following the 4th holiday there's been a death due to firework injuries. Evidently a lot of teenagers are dying from auto accidents, and people who commit suicide (or die from suicidal-ish drug overdoses) have extensive web presences.

Hmm…please help reset my moral compass to Absolute North by leaving a comment as to whether or not this is awful and ghoulish.

Not tolerating BS

Hi all. I'm in graduate school all of a sudden, and up to my neck with statistical curves. I've meant to post this for a while, and since I have little to say that isn't going to be on a midterm next week, I feel better about just posting someone else's writings.

Earlier this year the New Yorker did a profile of Bill O'Reilly, which was one of the funnier and snarkier things I've read this year (certainly from them). They refer to The Factor as being in a baroque period, and drop this one-liner: "Once, when Howard Stern was asked to explain his success, he said that he owed it to lesbians. O’Reilly owes his to child molesters."

They explain a bit about O'Reilly's lesser known fiction from the late 90s. This was written right around the time that a lot of conservative's bizarre paperback fiction was coming to light, most notably Scooter Libby's novel that featured this line: "At age ten the madam put the child in a cage with a bear trained to couple with young girls…"

Unlike some conservative talk-show hosts, O’Reilly hasn’t had a career in politics or government; he has never been based in Washington. Long Island notwithstanding, he really comes from a place called television news. After college, he taught high school in Florida, then got a degree in broadcast journalism and worked his way around the country’s media markets, starting as a consumer reporter in Scranton, Pennsylvania. In the early eighties, he landed at CBS News, as a correspondent for the “Evening News.” It should have been his big break, but it didn’t work out. Although he had a happier time at another network, ABC, before joining the syndicated show “Inside Edition,” in 1989, and then Fox, the CBS episode has stayed with him. It hurt—it still hurts. No matter how big a star he becomes, he’s eternally the guy who was banished from the charmed circle.

O’Reilly’s account of what went wrong at CBS has him, as always, pissing off powerful people because he won’t play their phony games. The key moment seems to have come when, during the Falkland Islands War, O’Reilly and his crew got some exclusive footage of a riot in the streets of Buenos Aires and it wound up being incorporated into a report from the veteran correspondent Bob Schieffer, which failed to mention O’Reilly’s contribution. O’Reilly was furious, and after that, by his account, he was in career Siberia at CBS. During this period of forced inaction, he later wrote, “on a visit to Cape Cod, Massachusetts, I stumbled upon an amazing story. The tiny fishing village of Provincetown had become a gay mecca!” O’Reilly took a cameraman there and did a piece on the dangers this posed to local kids, but the network wouldn’t air it. Not long after that, he left.

In 1998, after the launch of “The O’Reilly Factor,” but before superstardom, he published a thriller called “Those Who Trespass,” which is his most ambitious and deeply felt piece of writing.

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“Those Who Trespass” is a revenge fantasy, and it displays extraordinarily violent impulses. A tall, b.s.-intolerant television journalist named Shannon Michaels, the “product of two Celtic parents,” is pushed out by Global News Network after an incident during the Falkland Islands War, and then by a local station, and he systematically murders the people who ruined his career. He starts with Ron Costello, the veteran correspondent who stole his Falkland story:

"The assailant’s right hand, now holding the oval base of the spoon, rocketed upward, jamming the stainless stem through the roof of Ron Costello’s mouth. The soft tissue gave way quickly and the steel penetrated the correspondent’s brain stem. Ron Costello was clinically dead in four seconds. "

Michaels stalks the woman who forced his resignation from the network and throws her off a balcony. He next murders a television research consultant who had advised the local station to dismiss him: he buries the guy in beach sand up to his neck and lets him slowly drown. Finally, during a break in the Radio and Television News Directors Association convention, he slits the throat of the station manager. O’Reilly describes each of these killings—the careful planning, the suffering of the victim, the act itself—in loving detail.

In the novel, O’Reilly splits his alter ego in two, by creating a second tall, b.s.-intolerant Irish-American, a New York City homicide detective named Tommy O’Malley. O’Malley is charged with solving the murders that Michaels has committed, while competing with Michaels for the heart of Ashley Van Buren, a blond, busty aristocrat turned b.s.-intolerant crime columnist. Michaels, a possibly once good man driven mad by broadcast journalism, tells Ashley, “Journalism, as you know, is a profession that requires its participants to be aggressive, skeptical, and persistent in pursuit of the truth. Yet, the moment you enter your own newsroom, you’ve got to drop all that. The managers want total conformity. They want you to play the game, to do what you’re told to do.

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” And, later, “It’s a self-obsessed business.
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‘How are things going to impact on me? Is this person my friend or my enemy?
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I’ll get him before he gets me.’ That kind of thing. It’s a brutal way to live.” Again and again, O’Reilly’s characters remind us that on-air broadcasters are among the most powerful and glamorous people in America, and so the stakes in television newsroom politics could not be higher.

Tommy O’Malley, too, has a lot of ambition and rage, but he channels it into bringing bad guys (not just Michaels but a collection of urban ethnic street punks out of the old “Dirty Harry” or “Death Wish” movies) to justice. Michaels, though rejected by the suits, the swells, and the phonies, is not entirely immune to their values. He lives in a mansion, eats filet mignon, dresses stylishly, and can’t dismiss the A-listers from his consciousness. He is drawn to places like Malibu, Martha’s Vineyard, and the Upper West Side, partly to carry out his murders and partly because a kind of psychological undertow pulls him there. O’Malley seems not to know that they exist; he is broke and not stylish. He is morally redeemed by the police mission, just as Michaels is morally damned by television.

Capes

1) The last time Bryan Singer directed Kevin Spacey as a criminal mastermind, the movie was The Usual Suspects.

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I've often asked myself (as I'm sure you have as well) "What it would it be like if Keyser Soze had access to Kryptonite?
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" I'll be finding out tonight…

Go Lex go!

2) I'm seeing Superman Returns just a few weeks after seeing the quite awful X3. I glanced at my watch an hour into the movie, and told my party "we've only been here one hour" – a statement nobody believed. They all felt that the movie was approaching the third hour.

I would recommend seeing X3 only to see the trailers that came on beforehand.

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Regardless of X3's worth, the trailers for the movie were the largest gathering of bad trailers I've never seen. Remember the Awesomo episode of South Park where Cartman keeps making up Adam Sandler movies? That's all I can think of when I see the trailers for Click. There was Little Man and Fast and the Furious Part 3: Tokyo Drift. But the movie that takes the cake was Ghost Rider.

Nicholas Cage plays a stunt motorcycle driver who is possessed by a demon. Or something. At night his head and the wheels of the motorcycle burst into flames and he fights evil. He has a shotgun that shoots fireballs as well. It's something to behold. I really like the idea that somewhere, the producer pulled aside the director and they had this exchange:

Producer: "Listen, if only Ghost Rider's front wheel is on fire, and we leave the back wheel flameless, we can save about 100 grand and get the movie out early."
Director: "I will not compromise the artistic integrity of this project. Ghost Rider's motorcycle is on fire, or I walk from the project.
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"

Classical, Modern.

Huh? I understand that the baby boomers have a weird set of emotional and parental issues that cause them to weep at the very thought of their parents' "Greatest Generation" age cohort. On the scale of things I don't like about the boomers (mortgaging my generation out with the federal debt, outsourcing my generation's career tracks to fatten themselves, obsessive nostalgia and their feeling American culture stopped in '78, etc.) this rates rather low.

But is this book cover necessary?

Yes, yes. Heroism in WWII and all that (I'll keep the snark low about it really being the Soviet's victory). But Homer? I though the real horror of the World Wars was exactly how mass-produced, and not heroic, it was – it involves firebombings and suicide planes and factory production and nuclear warfare and mass conscription. There's no beauty of Achilles' shield being crafted by the gods, but someone handing you a rifle as you get off a boat.

I can only assume there's a Odyssey cover on its way of the current Iraq conflict, with a group of solider wandering around a hostile land just trying not to get killed and get the fuck home.

God I hate Greatest Generation nostalgia. And the boomers.

Manufacturing and cherry-picking supporters.

I saw former New York Times correspondent Stephen Kinzer speak last night about his new book Overthrow, a eagle-eye's perspective on the last 14 regime changes carried out by the United States (he's written more in depth about the coups in Guatemala and Iran).

The Q&A was mostly about the situation in Iran. He mentioned having been in Los Angeles, with its very large population of American-Iranians, talking with several immigrants and dissidents friends. I saw him on CSPAN-2 Book TV a few weeks ago, but his composure was changed last night. He looked worried as he related this new story of a large number of prominent Iranian-Americans being pulled to Washington in the past week to talk with administration and military officials, who are trying to get a sense of the reaction on the street if the President were to bomb Iran. And for kickers, how would it play out in the coffeehouses if they were to, say, drop a small tactical bunker-busting nuclear weapon on Iran?

The funny part is how much the administration believes that (a) a free, democratic, Western-and-peace loving Iran is not going to want the nuclear bomb even though backwater neighbors like Pakistan have them and (b) that us bombing a couple hundred military and scientific station is going to cause a democratic revolution, and that people will rise up against the government, instead of, ya know, rallying around it, and (c) how much they want to find a dozen or so Iranian dissents to sign off on it for accountability reasons ("We've consult with people who know Iran and found that the people there crave getting nuked…"). I can only assume it's like an episode of Sopranos, with contracts going out to whomever is willing to go public with support ("you can take 3 points on the construction of Tehran, with 5 no-work jobs and 2 no-shows"); the lack of the government being able to find a patsy only highlights how poorly this is all going to go.

Drop the hacky sack! Drop it now!

It's great when the internet adds little touches to my favorite television shows. I'm thinking of the slideshows presented by the DP and costume designer for "The Sopranos" on hbo.com. Over the weekend someone told me that the 24 webpage has the resume of all their major characters posted, filling you in on some of the character's backgrounds off-air.

Since it's off the air, they get to have some fun with it. I love that, according to his online resume, the current "24" President, the cowardly, insecure and power-hungry Charles Logan, was was former House member who became the CEO of "Western Energy Coal & Reserve" (winning the "Energy CEO of the Year"), and left his energy company to become the Vice-President. Wonderful.

Those biographies add little neat details – First Lady Martha Logan has an Standford art history degree and worked as a fundraiser, a path about as Congressional wife as you can get. And my favorite, god bless them, is that Jack Bauer studied at Berkeley. I can't describe how happy I am filling in the blanks of my previous visits with Bauer running around Telegraph Street foiling hippies' plans in real time ("Audrey listen! These are plans for a drum circle! a drum circle!" tick tock tick tock).

Three things about "24": (1) For an actor, to say one line and then have to repeat it louder and more angry must be difficult to do all the time. Considering that is more than half of Jack Bauer's lines I genuinely respect Kiefer as an actor. (2) Isn't it weird to consider that Kiefer is a brat packer? He was in Stand by Me, The Lost Boys and Young Guns. Statement: Jack Bauer versus the entirety of the 80s brat pack movie generation. Through in everyone; Anthony Michael Hall to Molly Ringwald to John Cusack. Bauer wins, hands down.

(3) As a friend pointed out, if Jack Bauer asks you to go somewhere with him, don't go. He does just fine by himself, while it's about 99% likely you are going to die (if only so they don't have to write you into the next episode).