Category: Election 2008

FOR THE OHIOANS

Posted on | by Ed | 1 Comment on FOR THE OHIOANS

Since the GOP has literally created an industry centered on making sure people (young, brown, or poor ones, anyway) can't vote, I think it is important for Ohioans to realize that a failure to produce certain forms of identification does not preclude voting.

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According to our friends at the Franklin County (Columbus) Board of Elections, state law mandates:

Voters must bring identification to the polls in order to verify identity. Identification may include current and valid photo identification, a military identification, or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document, other than this reminder or a voter registration notification that shows the voter's name and current address. Voters who do not provide one of these documents will still be able to vote by providing the last four digits of the voter's social security number and by casting a provisional ballot. Voters who do not have any of the above forms of identification, including a social security number, will still be able to vote by signing an affirmation swearing to the voter's identity under penalty of election falsification and by casting a provisional ballot.

Note that, aside from the list of acceptable ID being far more expansive than you've been led to believe, voters without any identification can still vote provisionally via affirmation. I don't have a list of 50 states' laws in front of me, but nearly every state has provisional balloting rules which require little more than an affidavit that a voter is not lying about his or her identity.

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In short, someone who tells you that you cannot vote is lying as long as you are registered.
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Oh, and no matter how actively involved in politics you happen to be, there's still a decent chance that you're not properly registered at your current address. Do it now.

2008 SENATE RACES, PART IV: SAFEBUTS

Posted on | by Ed

We've done the uncompetitive seats and the open/toss-up races. All that remain are the safebuts – seats for which assertions of safety are immediately followed by "but…." This small group of races are not what we could call competitive. Nor are they uncompetitive. Think of them as the sasquatches of American politics, the missing link between man and ape. I'll let you determine which primate represents which party.

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  • NE Open (Hagel retirement): Nebraska's conservative. Scott Kleeb is a good Democratic candidate for a plains state. I like him. But Mike Johanns, the former Governor, seems like he will be too much for a rookie to handle. A weaker Republican might be in trouble, but if the queen had a dick I suppose she might be the king. In a year that favors Democrats this is potentially a little competitive, but a whole lot would have to go right for Kleeb (and a lot wrong for Johanns) to make it close. Call it for Johanns with a 1% chance of Kleeb prevailing and a 15-20% chance that he causes the GOP a few sleepless nights.

  • Mitch McConnell (KY): McConnell is another guy who should be safe by a mile, but…well, people just don't seem to like him very much. I suppose that is the harvest of being a mean, partisan bastard all of one's political life. He has under 50% approval in his state and can't crack 50% in polling against war vet Steve Lunsford (although McConnell is consistently ahead in said polls). McConnell has the upper hand but this is going to be a lot closer than anyone expects of one of the highest-profile Senators. The guy in charge of making sure other Republican Senate candidates win better watch out for his own ass.
  • Elizabeth Dole (NC): Governor Mike Easley proved that Democrats can win statewide races in NC, although he politiely declined to give up the statehouse to battle Dole. Challenger Kay Hagan is the clear #2 in this race, but there has been enough variance in polling and signs of hope from the DNC to suggest that a massive investment of resources could put this in play. Worth it? Probably not. It's important to note, though, that North Carolina is changing more rapidly than any state east of the Mississippi – especially the high-tech area and PhD factory known as "The Triangle." As the blue menace creeps down the coast and claims Virginia, North Carolina could become competitive within 10 years. But right now Dole is likely to be OK.

  • Susan Collins (ME): George W. Bush's bestest friend in the Senate might seem to be in trouble in a state Kerry won by 9%. The reality of New England's strange political schizophrenia argues otherwise. Rep. Tom Allen is as strong a statewide Democratic challenger as Maine can produce in this era, so if he fails to seriously test Collins then both she and Olympia Snowe (who beat a token challenger by 35% in 2006) can safely be considered incumbents-for-life.
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    Essentially, these are the "Oh, Shit" races for the GOP. If November rolls around and they are legitimately worried about any of these, they're in big trouble. These are races that only become competitive when everything has gone wrong for one party and everything went right for the other.

    If that sounds familiar, well, that was 2006 – an election night that saw Republicans sweating out a Senate race in Virginia, losing 3 House seats in Indiana, and seriously contemplating the possibility of losing a House race in Wyoming. The GOP is clearly in a transitional period and, unfortunately, sometimes a 1994-style thrashing is necessary before the ship can get pointed in the right direction again.

    • BREAK GLASS IN CASE OF EMERGENCY

    Posted on | by Ed | 8 Comments on BREAK GLASS IN CASE OF EMERGENCY

    I have turned over too many plausible tie scenarios in the Electoral College (play around here) to neglect looking beyond Election Day to our eminently logical contingency procedures.

    Short answer, if you want to skip the next few paragraphs: in case of a tie, Obama wins.
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    The long answer is that elections not decided in the Electoral College are decided in the House. But members do not vote – states do. This is called the Unit Rule. Each state's delegation to the House meets and casts a single vote.
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    We expect that this takes place along party lines within the states, i.e. Indiana has 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans, and hence Indiana's 1 vote presumably goes to Obama.
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    The incumbent Congress, not the folks who get elected in November, make the call (see comments for correction: incoming Congress decides). Right now, here is how our state delegations break down:

    Republican (21): AL, AK, DE, FL, GA, ID, KY, LA, MI, MO, MT, NE, NV, NM, OH, OK, SC, TX, UT, VA, WY

    Democrat (27): AR, CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, IN, IA, ME, MD, MA, MN, MS (!!!), NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, VT, WA, WV, WI

    Split (2): AZ, KS

    The scenario, even assuming AZ and KS throw their support to McCain, clearly favors Obama. The GOP, in response, will suddenly develop a very principled stance (unrelated to the fact that standard unit voting leads to their defeat) in favor of state Congressional delegations voting in accordance with the popular vote in their states. This, coincidentally, would almost certainly lead to a McCain win, as the GOP excels at winning lots of states in which no one lives.

    Of course the Democrats in the House wouldn't go along with that at gunpoint, but that's not the goal. The goal will simply be to flood the talk radio airwaves with torrents of "fairness" and "disenfranchising" and "the will of the people" talk.

    I wouldn't call a tie likely, but it could happen. Among swing states, let's say IA, MN, CO, and NM go to Obama. Give McCain VA, OH, and NH and you've got yourself a tie. That, in my opinon, is entirely plausible. Accordingly I have a hard time seeing how McCain wins without sweeping the big trio of OH-PA-VA. Single-state polling isn't great, but Obama has sizeable leads in IA, NM, MN, and other supposedly competitive states that McCain would have to win if he doesn't sweep the Big Three.

    (Polling caveat: I rip on it a lot, but even if results fall within margins of error I subscribe to the belief that consistency counts. For example, Obama's lead in various Michigan polls is always within the margin of error but he is the consistent winner in poll after poll (see also: McCain in Missouri). While I wouldn't put any stock in a single poll showing one guy with a 2-point lead, twelve polls over 4 months are a different story.)

    WHAT MOTIVATES YOU

    Posted on | by Ed | 8 Comments on WHAT MOTIVATES YOU

    Jeffrey Toobin, in what rapidly proved to be an understatement, called McCain's speech on Thursday "shockingly bad." Having finally forced myself to watch portions of it (in addition to the usual transcript-hunting) I lack the energy to talk about the specifics of his random fusillade of rhetorical anti-matter.

    My reaction was simple and focused: if you get inspired by watching John McCain speak – truly, deeply inspired as a person – there is something wrong with you. You are the kind of person who, when really letting your hair down, has a couple of sugar-free Nilla Wafers and fat-free Cool Whip. You enjoy slices of white bread dipped in room temperature tap water. You have to water down your caffiene-free Diet Rite because it is too strong. You find Jay Leno's comedy funny but a little too edgy. You turned down Cher tickets because you don't like hard rock. Your collection of ties ranges from red to magenta. You read Family Circus.

    And, apparently, you respond well to Crazy Teethtm.

    2008 SENATE RACES, PART III: SEATS IN PLAY

    Posted on | by Ed | 7 Comments on 2008 SENATE RACES, PART III: SEATS IN PLAY

    Nothing says these have to go in order from safest to least safe, so let's cut in line and do the fun races. There won't be many. As with Rick Santorum in 2006, once again we have an incumbent who is expected to suffer a double-digit loss. Open seats, usually a source of intense competition, offer little excitement this year. Three Republican open seats have essentially been conceded, leaving only a small number of action-packed races.

    Screwed Incumbents

  • John Sununu (NH): Historically Republican New England is becoming a dangerous place to be friends with George W. Bush. After Sheldon Whitehouse downed Lincoln Chaffee in 2006 (RI) it was immediately clear that the uninspiring Sununu was in big trouble. NH is a different animal, but if Chaffee's widespread personal popularity could not save him it's hard to imagine Sununu surviving. Factor in his opponent, popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, and if there's anything Sununu wants to accomplish in the Senate he might want to do it soon.
  • NM Open (Domenici retirement): When Heather Wilson declined to represent the GOP (just like in 2006) this quickly became a laugher. Domenici's pending ethics censure from the US Attorney scandal sealed his fate, although let's be polite because he's also dying. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall looks unbeatable and the GOP is throwing in the towel. To quote NRSC Chair John Ensign, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.” Congressman Steve Pearce is on his own.
  • CO Open (Allard retirement): This was a potentially epic contest until the GOP couldn't scrape up a challenger. An eminently contestable seat, I'm amazed that Bob Schaffer (last seen losing the 2002 race for this same seat in the primary) is the best they could do. Mark Udall – cousin of NM candidate Tom – looks like he will cakewalk, although the large conservative base south of Denver could make this competitive. A major failure in candidate recruitment and development for the GOP; begging friggin' John Elway to run doesn't count.
  • VA Open (Warner retirement): John Warner retired and is likely to be replaced by Mark Warner (no relation) with opposition from weak challenger Jim Gilmore. The story of the GOP's decline will have to be entitled What's the Matter with Virginia? The speed with which they went from the only game in town to an afterthought in this state is stunning.

    Toss-ups

  • Ted Stevens (AK): I was really tempted to call this one blue but AK remains a very Republican state. Needless to say, however, the septuple-indicted octogenarian is in serious trouble. The RNC is furious that he has refused to withdraw and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who would have tested Stevens even sans indictments, now must be considered the favorite. Insert "series of tubes" joke here.
  • Norm Coleman (MN): The gut says Coleman will hold on, but I'm not sure how. Minnesota is so overwhelmingly liberal that Coleman's tenure in the Senate is a minor miracle to begin with. This is a remarkably tight race, literally a coin flip. Franken has money but has not run a good campaign, including some embarrassing revelations about his personal finances. This is the race most likely to go down to the wire. Expect "celebrity" Democrats to come out in force for this one – the Clintons, Biden, Obama, Feingold, Pelosi, and others will become very familiar with the Minneapolis airport. Will the GOP make a similar committment or will its manpower be too tied up in McCain? Does the GOP even have any big guns who Minnesotans wouldn't hate?
  • Gordon Smith (OR): Here's another Senator holding on in a very liberal state. With Obama likely to win Oregon by 20 points, the anonymous and none-too-popular Smith is definitely in trouble. His opponent is middling – State House Speaker Jeff Merkley – but he is running a good campaign based on Smith's record of support for Bush. If the coast (Portland, Eugene) turns out big, Smith's gone.
  • Mary Landrieu (LA): Everyone calls this a toss-up out of guilt for not including one Democrat on the list, so I'll join them. Yes, Landrieu is going to be tested. But the myth of black voters fleeing the state (hence screwing the Democrats) is widespread even though few New Orleans residents actually fled the state permanently. New Orleans, yes. Louisiana, no. Challenger John Kennedy is hard to take seriously; the Democrat switched parties on August 27 and announced his challenge to Landrieu on November 29. Polling provides little value in close races, but most existing polls show Landrieu up 10-15. The state is very red, but right now I see the 12-year veteran hanging on. Her support for offshore drilling (a politically popular stance at home) may have shifted things in her favor.

    So once again I feel compelled to apologize for the seemingly partisan tilt to this analysis, but in this case reality has a distinct liberal bias. Eleven of the mere twelve Democrats up in 2008 are as safe as can be and half of the 20+ GOP seats to defend are in hostile territory or lack quality challengers. When the NRSC essentially gives up on four GOP seats in June (NM, CO, NH, and VA) how in the hell am I supposed to come up with a scenario in which the party does well? The toss-up races are very important for the Republicans, as they represent the dividing line between a bad year and a beatdown of historic proportions. They're basically conceding 54 Democrats, which is very risky. With that as a baseline, they'll need to catch some breaks in the rest of the races or they'll be looking at 60. After the failure of the "firewall" in 2006 they can't actually be overconfident again, can they?

    • I LOVE SARAH PALIN

    Posted on | by Ed | 7 Comments on I LOVE SARAH PALIN

    No, seriously. She is like a gift from heaven. That hateful, corrupt little troll is going to go over like gangbusters with the people who were voting for McCain anyway.

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    And exactly no one else.

    Best I can tell from her speech (usual caveat: read, not watched, as one takes 90 seconds and the other an hour) she was nominated because Ann Coulter was busy.

    Classic right-winger-unconstrained-by-facts moment: Barack Obama wants to take all your money. Ignore reality, that both candidates propose tax plans that cut taxes on everyone making under $200,000. Conservatives have a neat way around inconvenient facts like that – Obama's lying.

    Second-favorite moment: bringing up all of her kids in the first 2 minutes after days of complaining about how the media is prying into the lives of her children.

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    That mean librul media! What kind of people would shine the national spotlight on teenagers for political gain?

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    PALINDROMES

    Posted on | by Ed | 9 Comments on PALINDROMES

    In the past 5 days, among media, things I have seen on the interweb, and people with whom I have spoken, Sarah Palin has been compared to Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Ronald Reagan, Martin Luther King, Hillary Clinton, Margaret Thatcher, and Lyndon Johnson. She is, in short, the most amazing, incredible human being in the history of people. Tenured researchers at the University of Awesome have finally solved their field's historically unsolvable equation. The answer is Sarah Palin.

    Not that the reaction has been hyperbolic or anything.

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    I'm sure these comparisons, lain upon someone her new acolytes never heard of five days ago, are well-grounded in reality. If anything they may not be going far enough.

    She also reminds me of Ghandi, Abraham Lincoln, Sir Edmund Hillary, and legendary knuckleballer Phil Niekro. She runs faster than Usain Bolt. She can deadlift a 1974 Ford Ranchero. She can cure pleurisy with her touch. She appears on tortillas in El Salvador. She can make dinner with one hand while writing in Hittite cunieform with the other.

    She declined to break the NFL single-game record for safeties out of respect for Fred Dryer.

    She craps platinum ingots. Her penmanship has been described as unpretentious and legible.

    She is not an American, she is America.

    2008 SENATE RACES, PART 2 – UNCOMPETITIVE

    Posted on | by Ed | 1 Comment on 2008 SENATE RACES, PART 2 – UNCOMPETITIVE

    (note: the "senate" tag at the bottom of the post can take you to other parts of this discussion)

    While I discussed the odds stacked against the GOP in the first post, the good news is that many of their incumbents are safe. Unfortunately, the Democratic percentage of safe seats is far greater. Before we move on to the exciting races, let's cover the obligatory ones.

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    These races are not considered competitive in any reasonable scenario. The unreasonable does happen. But these seats are safe in the absence of a major, game-changing blunder on the part of the incumbent. I'm not talking about answering some question wrong at a press conference – I mean calling someone "Macaca" or getting indicted. These candidates, some of whom have little more than token challengers, need only play decent defense to get re-elected.
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    Safe Republicans (12)

  • Idaho – Open: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has a cakewalk to fill Larry Craig's deeply closeted shoes.
  • Lamar Alexander (TN): Tennessee is not a total wasteland for the Democrats, but Bob Tuke is not a quality challenger and Lamar is a local institution.
  • Mike Enzi and John Barrasso (WY): Yawn.
  • Saxby Chambliss (GA): This disgusting excuse for a human being is likely to be tested by Vietnam vet Jim Martin, but he will return to Washington nonetheless.
  • Thad Cochran (MS): To call his opposition 'token' would be hyperbolic.
  • Roger Wicker (MS): I don't want to say this is competitive, but Ronnie Musgrove (Governor, 2000-2004) is the closest thing the MS Democrats have to a legit statewide threat. Keep an eye on this one. It could move.
  • John Cornyn (TX): State Rep. Rick Noriega poses little threat to an otherwise shaky Republican.
  • Jeff Sessions (AL): The former Democrat remains safe in a state whose internal politics remain Democratic.
  • Pat Roberts (KS): War veteran/Congressman Jim Slattery is a strong challenger fighting a losing battle.
  • Jim Inhofe (OK): The dumbest man in the Senate will return for six more years of humiliating himself on the world stage.
  • Lindsey Graham (SC): Among the safest of all GOP states.

    Safe Democrats (11)

  • Mark Pryor (AR): The only candidate who literally has no challenger – in a state GWB won twice.
  • Max Baucus (MT): Opposed by an 85 year-old joke candidate.
  • Jack Reed (RI): Opposed by a casino pit boss named Bob Tingle whose website was designed by a 9 year-old.
  • Jay Rockefeller (WV): The latest generation of the political royalty in the Mountaineer state.
  • John Kerry (MA): Jerome Corsi said he would challenge Kerry but, to no one's surprised, pussied out. Pussy.
  • Dick Durbin (IL): Where's Alan Keyes when you need him?
  • Joe Biden (DE): Some GOP direct mail consultant threw her name on the ballot when no one else wanted any part of this kamikaze run.
  • Tom Harkin (IA): Wealthy businessman Chris Reed could stress Harkin, but he is unlikely to prevail.
  • Carl Levin (MI): It's cute how the GOP insists Michigan is competitive and then runs a guy named Jack Hoogendyk against Levin.
  • Tim Johnson (SD): Inexplicably safe. He is getting a bump from something like a sympathy vote after his life-threatening aneurysm. Weak challenger.
  • Frank Lautenberg (NJ): I got into trouble by giving the GOP some credit in this state in 2006, but 84 year-old Lautenberg may be pressed by Dick Zimmer. Of the safe Democratic seats, this is one that could move.
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    While the safe Republicans are very safe, the sheer awfulness of some of the GOP challengers to safe Democrats is kind of awesome. Senile? Non-existent? Make $12/hr in a casino? Want your name on the ballot to impress your friends? Step right up!

    • CRYSTAL BALLS

    Posted on | by Ed

    I don't like predicting things about politics, because in most cases politics are unpredictable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or wildly overconfident.
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    When I do make predictions, I'm very comfortable admitting when I missed the mark.

    I knew who Sarah Palin was, but not in a million years did I consider her a credible VP pick.
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    The few (very few) media outlets that predicted her selection in advance (or even identified her as a serious option) deserve credit, including Jack Kelly at RCP. I recall reading one or two other articles that nailed it, but unfortunately I can't recall them to give credit where it is clearly due.
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