KRISTOL STICKS A FORK IN IT

Well, add Mr. Sunnis-and-Shias-Love-One-Another to the list of rats fleeing a sinking ship (today's NYT column: "Fire the Campaign"). Note the irony in Kristol criticizing McCain's campaign for its panicked, frantic behavior in a column that reads like the author is running about like a chicken minus its head.

Some day a friendly reader is going to register "www.billkristol.net" as a gift to me (my birthday's coming up!) and I will use it to chart a timeline of every Kristol column and major TV appearance since 2000, based on which I will determine what percentage of the time this man is actually right about anything. And as a bonus, we will see how many times he contradicts himself in print in any six-month period Friedman Unit.

EXHIBIT A

It's great that the day I post about fake Rove-generated "comeback" stories and efforts to create realities that don't exist, Mr. Rove himself runs a WSJ editorial entitled "Voters Haven't Decided Yet."

Aside from being a textbook example of fantastically wishful thinking, it's patently untrue. It is an empirical fact that the vast majority of voters of any political persuasion have long since decided.
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Nice try, though, d-bag.

UPDATE: ONE MONTH OUT

Less than 30 days remain until the election. Having talked about the Senate races in detail, where do we stand in The Big Race? Well, this much is all but carved in stone:

Obama 260, McCain 174 (sorry for the poor image quality – I remain tech-tarded and would love for someone to explain how to get a decent jpg out of Flash)

Very few states remain in play, although it is not beyond McCain to put a state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania back in play. If the election took place tomorrow, though, we would expect Obama to come out on top in these states. Note that I am being conservative giving Obama 260 EV; based on aggregated state polling, Pollster puts him at 320 right now. Let's stick with the safer estimate, which I believe is a reasonable one based on the data and trends, and consider what each candidate needs to do in order to win.

McCain needs to win every undecided state. Obama needs to win one. That's a slight oversimplification, but that's essentially the score.

McCain will need to rally in Florida, Colorado, and Ohio, where he currently trails, in addition to fending off Obama in surprisingly-competitive Virginia and North Carolina. I'm being very generous and handing him Indiana, which is reasonable, and assuming that he can win Missouri (where he leads but is struggling).

Remember, Obama wins the tiebreaker in the House so he only needs 9 EV. New Hampshire and Nevada together would give him 9, as would any other state currently undecided (IN, VA, NC, FL, OH, MO, or CO) on its own.

I believe that any election decided after Election Day (in the House or in court) is harmful to the winner. So Obama is unlikely to ease off the accelerator in any state he reasonably thinks is competitive in order to score a decisive win. If McCain sweeps the undecided states and wins, he will be winning by a nose (something like 270-275 EV). A decisive win isn't really an option for him this year. Obama, as indicated by the generous estimate on Pollster, can win with a big margin. Whether he will remains to be seen.

The short answer is that McCain is in trouble. Both he and his campaign appear moribund in recent days.

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Democrats should refrain from breaking out the America-Hating Champagne, though.

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Four weeks is plenty of time for things to change. Here's what's likely to happen.

McCain will rally with about 10 days left (last week of October). More accurately, he'll "rally." His campaign will saturate anyone who will listen with messages about how he's "coming on strong" or mounting a huge last-minute comeback. The media will carry the water because, frankly, a close election is in their (ratings) interest too. The 2006 Election provides a good template – remember those last 48 hours before the polls closed when the media was abuzz with the GOP's great big rally that didn't exist? Expect that again, only louder and more insistent.

Whether he actually rallies or Karl Rove simply attempts to create a new reality with a few planted stories will be revealed shortly. Having lapsed into desperation and full-on smear mode, a real rally is unlikely.
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As the body digests its own muscles in a starving person, McCain is burning his credibility as fuel to stay alive right now. This makes no difference, of course, because the talking point will be the same – boy, what a "surge" McCain is making! He's closing fast!

If you support Obama, I encourage you not to be worried about this predictable tactic. The media will pound you with "comeback" stories right before the election but they're likely to be bullplop.
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They certainly didn't mean anything in 2004 or 2006. McCain needs to establish real momentum in Ohio and Florida, not the "let's just say we have momentum and hope people buy it" kind. The same old shit – smear Obama, rely on ultra-conservative Evangelicals to sweep the GOP to victory – isn't cutting it. McCain needs to give those voters a reason to vote for him, not against Obama.

DEBATE ANALYSIS

All I have to say about this unremarkable debate (guaranteed to be completely forgotten within 72 hours) is that John McCain looks absolutely whipped. His slams on Obama seem feeble and half-hearted, and nearly all of them are one-upped by Obama's quicker, more clever responses.

McCain's campaign has lapsed into desperation and consequently he is just going through the motions tonight.
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He knows that debate answers won't help him – only parading Obama around as a scary, black, terrorist, secret Muslim can save him, and even that isn't helping now.

The guy honestly looks like he is falling asleep; perhaps he is as tired as his talking points.
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It's really sad to see a man who used to be respected lapsing into the same kind of pathetic ass-kissing ("American workers are the greatest in the world!
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Woooooooooo!") we got from his functionally retarded running mate on Thursday.

2008 SENATE RACES UPDATE: IT'S ACTUALLY GETTING WORSE

I didn't think it was possible, but the 2008 Senate landscape is getting even worse for the Republicans. Here I thought I was being too hard on them, making predictions that would prove to be far too dire. And now it's looking like the scenario I described earlier (click the tag to see previous installments) is something of a best-case.

1. North Carolina (Incumbent R) moves from Safe to Toss-Up – This is astounding. Don't ask me how, but Elizabeth Dole has not only eliminated any aura of "safety" surrounding this seat but she is actually trailing in the most recent estimates. Neither candidate seems able to establish a lead outside of the margin of error, but the cumulative polling data shows an unmistakable trend away from Dole.

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This could be the race that writes the epitaph for the GOP's election year. If one of their most nationally well-known and respected Senators loses to an absolute nobody (try to name her opponent; I dare you) then the dam is really broken. There are several weeks until Election Day and this race may sort itself out further, but the idea that this is even talked about as a potential Democratic pickup is stunning.

2. Mississippi 2 (Incumbent R) moves from Safe to Toss-Up – Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is the only Democrat in Ole Miss who could even think about winning a statewide race, and the GOP seriously miscalculated by choosing an absolute nobody (Roger Wicker?) to fill Trent Lott's vacancy.

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It's a classic case of hubris; "It doesn't matter who we pick, the Democrats can't win." It's true that the state is incredibly conservative, but a race between the strongest possible Democrat and weakest possible Republican is proving to be very competitive.

3. Louisiana (Incumbent D) moves from Toss-Up to Safe, But… – This was the GOP's one hope for knocking off a Democratic incumbent, and it looked fairly likely for a while. Then, thanks to her expedient decision to break with her party and support offshore drilling – a popular stance in the state – Landrieu just pulled away. Far from being a potential takeover, it's hard to argue that this one is even close anymore. Kennedy proved to be the joke of a challenger that I thought he was.
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4. New Hampshire (Incumbent R) moves from Safe to Safe, But… – Sununu has shown more fight than I initially gave him credit for, although I believe his stronger-than-expected showing is largely an artifact of John McCain's appeal in New Hampshire. Shaheen still has this one (note that the "tightening" of the race is based almost entirely on one Rasmussen poll serving as an outlier – and they are slightly more reliable than Mr. Ford in Frisky Dingo) but banish any idea of this one being a blowout. Sununu has made this competitive if nothing else.

5. Minnesota (Incumbent R) moves from Normal Senate Race to Clusterfuck – Independent candidate Dean Barkley, a former fill-in Senator for Paul Wellstone under Reform Party Governor Ventura, is polling double-digits and casting this race into disarray. A liberal who has flirted with running with the DFL in the past, Barkley is probably the only thing keeping Norm Coleman in the lead at the moment. Franken has run a poor campaign and has never led. Barkley not only makes things tough for him but he also makes this race essentially impossible to predict. To wit, Coleman has led for months but the most recent Star-Tribune poll shows Franken up ten. Three-way races are just chaos.

6. Other races on notice – Decorated war veteran Rick Noriega is closing on John Cornyn in Texas. He's yet to lead, though. Susan Collins is ready to join the Senator-for-Life category in Maine. Steve Lunsford, defying all logic, is dragging Mitch McConnell close to toss-up territory. GOP incumbents Gordon Smith and Ted Stevens are both trailing narrowly in what have long been considered toss-up races in Oregon and Alaska, respectively.

Either Cornyn or McConnell being dragged into a toss-up is truly an armageddon scenario for the GOP and they may be looking at 60 Democrats in the Senate. As Obama opens up a lead on McCain – and it looks like he is finally starting to establish a legitimate one – these races we never imagined could be competitive may ride the coattails.
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DAVID BROOKS COMES BACK FOR SECONDS

David Brooks, author of a pitifully predictable column entitled "The Palin Rebound," is a stupid person. I can do no less than prove that to you. I always knew that I would end up violating my one-time-only FJMing rule for Mr. Brooks. I was right.

There are some moments when members of a political movement come together as one, sharing the same thoughts, feeling the same emotions, breathing the same shallow breaths. One of those occasions occurred Thursday night when Republicans around the country crouched nervously behind their sofas, glimpsed out tentatively at their flat screens and gripped their beverages tightly as Sarah Palin walked onto the debate stage at Washington University in St. Louis.

So Palin's goal heading into the debate: make Republicans feel less ashamed of her and less dirty about voting for her. Reassure people who are voting for McCain anyway that she is not the dumbest thing to fall off of a turnip truck since James Inhofe. That sounds really productive.

There she was, resplendent in black, striding out like a power-walker, and greeting Joe Biden like an assertive salesman, first-naming him right off the bat.

She sure looked confident and pretty! And it's nice that she dispensed with the Senator's title, unlike how the media would have shit creamed corn all over itself for days if he "disrespected" her by calling her Sarah.

Just as the midcentury psychologist Abraham Maslow predicted, Republicans watching the debate had a hierarchy of needs. First, they had a need for survival. Was this woman capable of completing an extemporaneous paragraph — a collection of sentences with subjects, verbs, objects and, if possible, an actual meaning?

To David Brooks, that performance was unscripted. Extemporaneous. Natural. In other news, The Blair Witch Project was totally real. The film was, like, found in the woods by some hikers and the police wanted to release it in theaters hoping that someone could help catch the killer.

I'm still waiting for someone to explain why in the holy name of tap-dancing, ball-scratching baby Jesus it matters what Republicans think about Sarah Palin's performance.

Sarah Palin putting on a display of oratory that would make Daniel Webster sound like a hobo stroke victim = Republicans will vote for McCain.

Sarah Palin responding to questions by crapping on the podium and then smearing it around with her hands while yelling "GAA! GAA! GOO! GOO!" = Republicans will vote for McCain.

By the end of her opening answers, it was clear she would meet the test. She spoke with that calm, measured poise that marked her convention speech, not the panicked meanderings of her subsequent interviews.

She can read scripts well. Great. We have a whole industry of people who can read teleprompters convincingly. Good Morning America hosts. People on infomercials. Those stage models on The Price is Right. The weekend weather girl at every TV station in America. I can't think of a quality that serves a president better than being unable to string a coherent sentence together without a script and weeks of careful rehearsal.

When nervous, Palin has a tendency to over-enunciate her words like a graduate of the George W. Bush School of Oratory,

So now George W. Bush's oratory, eight-years praised for its "folksiness" and ability to connect to mythical creatures like Joe Six-Pack and the Kraken, is the subject of ridicule? He's an example to be mocked in service of a new candidate praised for her "folksiness" and ability to connect to mythical creatures like Joe Six-Pack and the Kraken?

but Thursday night she spoke like a normal person.

Foreshadowing Comment #1 in re: David Brooks' impression of what a "normal person" is like.

It took her about 15 seconds to define her persona — the straight-talking mom from regular America

What's "irregular America," David? I mean, aside from the multimillion dollar Beltway neighborhood from which you wrote this. That's pretty atypical, of course. Do you get a lot of contact with "regular Americans" or do you just pull stuff out of your ass and assume that the commoners who do your laundry and mow your lawn conform to your imagined archetype?

Also, my sister and her entire social circle are Moms from Regular America (downstate Illinois counts, right?) and I have never heard any of them talk like this. If they did, I would need to spend 45 minutes before each visit freebasing crack off of the intake manifold of my car in order to stand being around them.

and it was immediately clear that the night would be filled with tales of soccer moms, hockey moms, Joe Sixpacks, main-streeters, “you betchas” and “darn rights.”

We agree: it was immediately clear that the evening would be full of those things.

I have called Vegas, and legendary oddsmaker Jimmy "The Pancreas" Mazzone tells me that there is a 3:1 chance that you are about to say this is a good thing. Let me make sure I'm sitting on something that resists stains and odors.

Somewhere in heaven Norman Rockwell is smiling.

And somewhere here on Earth the rest of us were projectile vomiting blood from our eye sockets at the cloying, degrading spectacle of watching an idiot read "folksy" lines written by a six-figure East Coast speechwriter from an Ivy League university.

With a bemused smile and a never-ending flow of words, she laid out her place on the ticket

Look at this construction: a "never-ending flow of words." They didn't make any sense and they didn't have anything to do with the questions, but the words kept coming. Awesome.

This is like praising a pitcher who gets bombed for 10 runs in an inning for his "never-ending flow of pitches." Or praising lenders for that never-ending flow of subprime mortgages.

Also, Republicans make "bemused smiles" whereas Democrats who smile are smug, condescending, child-molesting bastards who leave trails of slime as they move.

Where was this woman during her interview with Katie Couric?

She was sitting in a chair next to Katie Couric, unable to paste together four words without the scripted answers on which her life depends. Didn't you just praise her like three goddamn paragraphs ago for performing well at the convention and the debate? I know you're "special" David, but think real hard – what's the common denominator of those two events? And what's different about an interview? Both questions have the same answer. You can do it, David.

Their primal need for political survival having been satisfied, her supporters then looked for her to shift the momentum. And here we come to the interesting cultural question posed by her performance.

Yes, having satisfied a group whose opinions on the debate are totally irrelevant to the dynamics of the race, let's see if she shifted momentum.

The presidency and the vice presidency once was the preserve of white men in suits. As the historian Ellen Fitzpatrick pointed out on PBS Thursday night, if, in 1984, Geraldine Ferraro had spoken in the relentlessly folksy tones that Palin used, she would have been hounded out of politics as fundamentally unserious.

I agree, David. There is absolutely no way that a Democrat could get away with being this amateurish and vacuous. Excellent point.

But that was before casual Fridays, boxers or briefs and T-shirt-clad Silicon Valley executives. Today, Palin can hit those colloquial notes again and again, and it is not automatically disqualifying.

I'd say it has less to do with Casual Fridays than the Conservative movement's decision to abandon the intellectual high ground and wallow in stupidity for a living. Replace Buckley with Laura Ingraham. Fuck William Safire, bring on Ann Coulter. Get that literate, camera-unfriendly Bob Dole fellow out of here and replace him with a pageant automaton. Create a movement whose culture is so dumbed-down that the idiotic frat-boy ramblings of Jonah Goldberg pass for intellectualism. If you do all of that, Palin's behavior certainly isn't "automatically disqualifying." Good on you though, David, for recognizing how tremendously low your ideology has sunk in just 25 years. It used to take ideas to be a popular conservative; now it takes a loud voice and the willingness to exchange integrity for ratings.

She ran not only against Washington, but the whole East Coast, just to be safe.

That's a good tactic! I don't think any people live on the East Coast.

To many ears, her accent, her colloquialisms and her constant invocations of the accoutrements of everyday life will seem cloying.

At least 50, and probably more like 60, percent of the population. "Many" ears indeed.

But in the casual parts of the country, I suspect, it went down fine.

HALT! THIS IS THE RHETORICAL MONEY SHOT – THICK, WHITE STREAMS OF ELOQUENCE FURIOUSLY BLASTED INTO OUR COLLECTIVE FACE. SHIELD YOUR EYES.

When Mr. Brooks wants to observe regular people, he does so through a powerful telescope from one of his two residences in midtown Manhattan and Georgetown. It is nice that he admits to having absofuckingloutely no idea what anyone outside of the Beltway and the elite media cocktail circuit is like. Very bold of him. Wither, then, the basis for the "suspicion" that this went over well? What basis, other than classist arrogance, underlies this mystical understanding of what us unwashed fly-over rubes are like?

You've nailed it, buddy – we're all fucking morons who bark like trained seals whenever some polished politico representing the elitest of the elite in the Republican Party puts on an act and pretends to be "one of us." Maybe to connect with Asian voters the Governor should put on a giant rice-bowl hat and punctuate her speech with "ME RIKEY!" instead of "youbetcha!"

On matters of substance, her main accomplishment was to completely sever ties to the Bush administration.

Yeah, that was totally believable. We're all convinced. She said that she and McCain are different. That severed the living shit out of those ties.

Palin could not match Biden when it came to policy detail, but she never obviously floundered.

"The Yankees could not match the Red Sox when it came to scoring more runs and winning the game, but they never obviously floundered."

Let's get Sarah a blue ribbon reading "PARTICIPANT" to mark her performance. That is essentially what this sentence means. She got blown away on merit, but she bodily participated in the event. She even avoided (in his opinion) completely humiliating herself. This deserves applause, the kind of applause we reserve for the talent show contestant who botches a magic trick. Way to show up and try, Sarah!

She was surprisingly forceful on the subject of Iran (pronouncing Ahmadinejad better than her running mate)

What's "surprising" about the same "ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK!" drum they have been beating for years? And what a shock that they drilled her for a week on how to pronounce it and then she pronounced it right. I can do the same thing with a parrot.

Biden, for his part, was smart, fluid and relentless. He did not hit the change theme hard enough. He did not praise Barack Obama enough. But he was engaging, serious and provided a moving and revealing moment toward the end, when he invoked the tragedy that befell his own family and revealed the passion that has driven him all his life.

So, to recap: Sarah Palin was dressed in black and said all kinds of folksy shit. Biden had a command of facts & details, was more serious, and emotionally connected with viewers. I think it's obvious, based on these statements taken from Brooks' own mouth, who won.

Still, this debate was about Sarah Palin. She held up her end of an energetic debate that gave voters a direct look at two competing philosophies. She established debating parity with Joe Biden.

Palin. Palin clearly won.

For the purposes of future measurement, the following things are equivalent and result in parity:

Group A – stories about soccer, winks that made all of America want to punch her in the fucking throat, a black suit, talking in circles, and repeating McCain's "maverick" slogan 1000 times. Also, speaking in an insulting parody of how incomprehensibly rich political elites think we serfs talk.

Group B – Having facts and details, looking like a serious candidate, answering the questions, and appearing confident and competent.

By the end of the debate, most Republicans were not crouching behind the couch, but standing on it.

OMG THAT'S GREAT FOR YOU GUYS! HOW EXCITING! SOMEONE REMIND ME HOW, AND IN WHAT UNIVERSE, THIS MATTERS!

Great job, Sarah. If your goal was to use this debate as a way to make the people who are already voting for you less humiliated about doing so, MISSION AFUCKINGCCOMPLISHED! You have built a bridge to somewhere: the Land of Unimportant Things that Are Nice in an Irrelevant Way.

The race has not been transformed, but few could have expected as vibrant and tactically clever a performance as the one Sarah Palin turned in Thursday night.

"This had no effect on the race, but it sure was pleasing to a small group of die-hard partisans."

It made David Brooks happy, and that was really what this was about. The McCain people went into the evening thinking "Gosh, if we can please right-wing columnists with her performance, this evening will be a stunning, complete, backboard-shattering tomahawk dunk of a victory!"

And she delivered. Kudos, Sarah. What were the odds that die-hard Republicans would watch your performance and find a reason to declare victory? I certainly didn't see it coming. The rise of the sun each morning and the tendency of unrestrained heavier-than-air objects to fall toward Earth also shock me.

THIS IS WHERE IT GETS REEEEEAL GOOD

(NPF cancelled, obviously)

After a record number of viewers watched Thursday evening's spectacle, any delusions of Palin being an asset – or at least not a liability – to the McCain campaign have been taken behind the chemical sheds and shot. Rather than over-analyzing the performance I think it's more relevant to talk about where the campaign goes from here. McCain, in the timeless words of St. Augustine of Hippo, is looking way fucked.

That's an overstatement. He could still win; that is to say it is not impossible. It certainly looks likely that his "maverick" gamble with Palin will be self-inflicted, possibly fatal, wound. The are rapidly losing steam and they know it. They badly want to reverse the trend but there is no obvious solution. We can expect, in short, that McCain will shortly begin Phase III: Desperation.

We haven't seen this in a while. Al Gore acted like the front-runner throughout the 2000 race, and John Kerry felt like he was neck-and-neck with Bush even if trailing. Bob Dole's campaign never diverted from his patrician, boring tone in 1996 even though Clinton offered so much scandal material to work with. George H. Bush got a little frantic in 1992, but the most outrageous results were a plaintive effort to get Ross Perot to drop out and an ill-advised ten-day campaigning marathon which nearly killed the septugenarian President. Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale rode the high road to a fault. Ford, Carter, and even McGovern were able to lose without resorting to insanity.

But the 2006 election offered just a brief glimpse of how Rove & Co. react to the new experience of losing, and let's just say it will not be graceful. The next five weeks are going to be Hail Mary time for the McCain camp. Not all of it is going to be what we could call dignified. We can quasi-agree that he has lost his post-convention, post-Palin momentum and can safely be described as "trailing" at the moment. Obama is picking up steam and Palin is killing McCain with non-Republicans. McCain realizes that he is on the razor's edge between losing and getting blown out. What could they try?

1. Having Palin "decide" to spend more time with her family and respectfully withdraw. This is a no-win situation for McCain. Either he keeps a crappy running mate or admit that he blew it by picking a crappy running mate. Good judgment, John! I struggle to think of a replacement who would actually make things better. Anyone?

2. Buying into the whacko arguments about Obama and pushing them hard – the secret Muslim stuff, the "meetings with terrorists", the anti-christ angle, all of it. Abandon any claims to the high road. See what sticks and hope that it undermines Obama.

3. Promising to serve only one term. Dole floated this when he realized his odds – the theory being that an old candidate offers himself as a short-term solution who can quickly be replaced. This happened in the 19th Century (Hayes, for example) but seems woefully defeatist today.

4. Start making shit up. Promise voters anything and everything, hope it gets you in the door, and then deal with breaking your word later. Promise ridiculous things that no elected official could possibly deliver and hope someone buys it.

5. Go nuts with the martyr complex. Refuse to debate, fabricate horrible things Obama and the DNC have tried to do ("We uncovered a plot to sabotage one of our rallies!"), and aim for sympathy/outrage in general. They're already doing this to some extent.

This is really a tough situation for McCain's strategists. What would you do to turn things around? What could you do? The message isn't believable, the candidates are inarticulate, and the electoral landscape is unfavorable. Doing more of the same clearly isn't going to turn things around, but what is a reasonable alternative? Failing that, is there even a good unreasonable alternative? We'll be learning the answer through painful experience soon.

DEBATE GRADES

Palin nets a C-. She didn't do anything well, nor did she actually answer any of the questions (going so far as to helpfully point out that she wouldn't be answering the questions "the way you or the moderator would like"). Her pitiful, awkward stabs at populism were transparently ridiculous and scripted.
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But she avoided a single gaffe of legendary, sound-bite-worthy proportions.
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It was just a shitty performance overall, not a performance marred by one significant disaster.

Biden gets an A. I'd like to give him a much lower grade so that it would make me feel more "fair" but if you watched that debate and don't think that he blew her out of the water with his attention to detail, specificity, and command of the facts countered by her inane bumper sticker slogan responses, then I don't know what to tell you. Ignoring Palin, Biden on his own was really as good as he can be (whatever you think of that). He was not smarmy, he answered the questions, and he hammered Palin without being a dick.
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I mean, he just drove her into the ground but did not come off like a bully in doing it. That's difficult. I would have blown it. He didn't.

The GOP is relieved in one sense because she wasn't as bad as in the Couric interview. But I think it's going to be damn well impossible to pretend that the debate was anything other than a brutal ass-beating. If you like hearing random slogans thrown at the camera, there was a candidate for you. There was also another who sounded like a serious statesman.
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If you watched that debate and thought Palin looked like the person best suited to lead the nation, I'd love to hear on what basis you make that judgment.

(PS – How awesome was the CNN camera in the GOP "Debate watching room"? It looked like a fucking morgue. Those people looked like they were at their own children's funeral.)