CNN is reporting that the FBI has evidence of collusion between Trump's campaign and the Russian government. At this point we have no idea what that evidence consists of. If it is firm evidence, he is not going to last the year.
I know, I know. You've heard "This is the end of Trump" before. Too many times. But consider the following points before you disregard this, remembering that the argument is contingent on the evidence being firm and more than circumstantial.
1. "The GOP will never turn on him in Congress." Look, I know it doesn't feel like it – it feels more like an eternity – but Trump has only been President for sixty-one days. Nobody could realistically expect they would impeach him at the first hint of a scandal. They've stood behind him thus far, but "thus far" hasn't been very much time in this case. So…
2. Two months of constant damage control might be OK with the Congressional Republicans. After six months? Eight? Remember, members of Congress do not like wasting their time on things that provide them with no benefit, and that midterm election will be here before you know it.
buy cipro online alvitacare.com/wp-content/languages/new/where/cipro.html no prescription
What they feel willing to put up with today may not be what they're willing to tolerate in six months. Remember Watergate; Republicans stood firmly behind Nixon, right up to the point where they didn't. If the tide turns, it will turn with dramatic speed.
buy amoxicillin online alvitacare.com/wp-content/languages/new/where/amoxicillin.html no prescription
3. Trump has surrounded himself with a group of people (excepting family) who seem almost comically self-interested and ready to turn on each other in a heartbeat. There's no Ollie North ready to take a bullet for the old man. Some of his hangers-on look like they would squeal on their own mother under the slightest pressure.
4. It's Russia. Russia. Americans agree on few things, but almost everybody hates the Russians ("Alt-Right" dead-enders who recently discovered a deep love for Russia excepted).
The Russians are The Bad Guys. Sure, your core group of 20% of the population will defend Trump to the bitter end. Your McCain-style Republicans will end up deciding between a GOP president they never wanted in the first place and America's long-time rival and enemy.
5. The GOP realizes that an impeached Trump would be replaced with another Republican from whom they can get anything Trump can give them…except for constant headaches and bad press.
6. The most important point is that, as I've repeated to the point of absurdity, the Russia story gets worse almost by the day. Like clockwork, a new piece of Even Worse News for Trump comes out like clockwork every two or three days. There is no indication this is going to stop.
61 days is not long. Even a principled party with a sense of shame would stand behind one of their own for two measly months. Six? Twelve? Eighteen, which would run smack into next year's midterm elections? That they will indulge him for that long and potentially imperil themselves to defend a guy they don't like and didn't want in the first place seems questionable.
I don't believe this is the end. But I believe that what has been happening since December – new, incriminating revelations about Trump-Russia connections surfacing every few days – will continue to happen. It is like Watergate or any other scandal; it doesn't strike like lightning.
It builds like a wave, and sometimes it becomes big enough to do fatal damage when it finally hits the shore.
mojrim says:
Well, yeah, except… People only hate Russia in the abstract. Any republican who uses turns on El Cheeto over this will be disemboweled by his constituency. Very few people actually care about Crimea or NATO at this point; kitchen table issues always win.
mago says:
Russia. How long's that trope been trotted out?
As regards the rest, fickle is the word.
Fucking politicians.
Anytime. Anywhere.
Periscope says:
How does Donald Trump the damaged person lose, especially now that he has the most power in the entire world? We all know he is too messed up to admit wrong, let alone display contrition. Even if the evidence of collusion or emoluments violations are undeniable and irrefutable he'll figure out a way to divert attention to something unthinkable – like start a war. What won't be "like a wave" is what this cripple will do when he gets backed into a corner.
Straight jacket and a buzz cut.
Bosh says:
Well a smart Republican looks at how many votes they're going to lose from Trump loyalists who will scream about mainstream Republicans stabbing them in the back if they dump Trump and subtract how many votes they'd gain if they had Pence heading up things instead.
The thing is egging on his diehards to get revenge on Republican members of Congress is one of the things that Trump is actually good at and how many people are out there who don't want to vote for a Republican for Congress now but who would under the glorious leadership of Pence? A lot? Really?
If I were a self-interested Republican congressman I'd just keep my head down and try to ride things out and feed Trump cholesterol every chance I got.
Bill says:
You're all forgetting that crimes, real go to prison, do not pass go, crimes have been committed. Both during the campaign and likely throughout Trump's last decade.
Manafort, or Bannon, or Lewandowski, or somebody similarly connected to Trump and with knowledge of the dirt both during the campaign and in Trump's recent history is going to turn state once they see what is laid on the table against them.
Once indictments have been issued against Trump and his close associates for collusion, money laundering, RICO, statutory rape, whatever, his ability to do anything of substance, certainly to wage war or ignore the judiciary, is gone. Kaput.
Do you really think the JCS and military brass, who he has already attempted to blame for the death of Navy Seal Owens, is going to order deployments on his word when he's facing indictments for colluding with Assange, or money laundering for Russian gangsters, or statutory rape, or maybe even worse? Do you really think that US Marshals are going to stand by while he attempts to violate district court rulings with those indictments hanging over him? Do you really think that the TLAs that he's disrespected up to and including calling them Nazis and throwing himself a party at their memorial wall are going to let him use a terrorist attack as a distraction from this? Fuck no.
The GOP Congress can only protect him so much and ignore this for so long, and once the writing is on the indictments, they'll fall in line like good boys and girls. If nothing else, they know that the NSA has been or at least could be watching them as well and will gladly start leaking evidence of their own illegality to decrepit and destroy them and force compliance.
This dumb motherfucker has started a three front war against the IC, military, and media. He's toast. The GOP congress will hang on as long as they can to try to jam their fever dream bills through while this circus provides cover. But even they will have to relent in the face of what is to come, and it is likely, especially if the GOP pushes their luck too far, that it will be so widely damaging that it takes Pence and maybe even Ryan or other GOP leaders down as well. Just imagine if Priebus has shit on his hands in all of this. His dumb ass likely smeared it all over all of them with his coordination and communication as RNC chair.
Bill says:
*decrepit=discredit
Leon says:
If impeachment comes to pass, you can surely expect a spike in white "Christian" male terrorism. His most ardent supporters are the most batshit, well-armed, irrational, unregulated militia this country could've possibly created. The culture war is upon us. And Putin, popcorn in hand, is loving every minute of it.
Kovpakistan says:
I don't know- I wouldn't underestimate the depths to which the GOP can plunge when it comes to being unprincipled. Just look at how gleeful Ryan is as he imagines knocking millions of Americans off their healthcare insurance while giving the super-rich another huge tax cut.
Many conservatives rationalize "getting along with Russia," which actually means doing whatever Putin wants for nothing in return, for the following reasons:
1. "They're not Communists anymore!" Many conservatives forget this from time to time, but if pressed they can bring that up. The modern Russian state is ostensibly reactionary and conservative, with the church intervening in all kinds of affairs. Of course what those American conservative Russia-lovers don't know is that Russian women have far more access to abortion and birth control than American women, and thus far the church has failed at curtailing this.
2. "They're killin' them Mooslims!" Russia got a lot of admiration from the right because of its struggle with Caucasian Muslim insurgents, some of whom were certifiably terrorists. Of course in two of the most famous terrorist incidents, most of the hostages were killed by the Russian side, but the important thing to these people is that Muslims died. Of course they don't know that Moscow is in fact full of Muslim immigrants, and the de facto leader of Russia is the Chechen Muslim warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.
3. "Putin is a strong leader!" Ever the gullible type, many an American conservative has fallen hook, line, and sinker for Vladimir Putin's endless photo-ops with guns, on motorcycles (he actually has to ride a three-wheeler), and so on. In reality, Putin is a very short, awkward man with a rather soft voice. His wife left him and may have married someone 20 years younger than him. Only one of his daughters lives in Russia at the moment, and she was no doubt coaxed by the multi-million dollar project she's been allowed to work on.
Lit3Bolt says:
I know some people are being Droopy Dawgs about this news, but this is incredibly damning, and you know it's not even the full investigative case.
They've undermined their credibility, they've undermined every potential ally, the entire Village of Washington hates them, and when the healthcare bill fails and the Gorsuch nomination stalls (I can wish still), Trump will be declared the Worst President with 100 days in.
And with all of their hypocritical posturing, fresh from the election, about "A President under FBI investigation is a Constitutional Crisis" or "Most Honest People I know aren't under multiple FBI investigations" over Clinton e-mails is about to provide some extremely damaging optics.
McMasters and Mattis will turn on team Trump, if they haven't already. They have leakers everywhere they still haven't found. Foreign intelligence agencies and journalists are turning over reams of data to help any and all US investigations. Every eyeball in the world is on them.
Try to ratfuck your way out of this one. Indictments coming soon.
Talisker says:
Trump's last line of defense is the threat of primaries. If a hard core of 20% of the population still love him, that's more than enough to defenestrate GOP members of Congress who vote to remove him from office. The GOP will stick by Trump, until the government is so dysfunctional and/or the general election polling so bad, they feel they have nothing to lose. We might get there eventually, but it will take more than it did in Nixon's day, when the primaries weren't such a threat.
http://blog.iainroberts.com/2017/02/the-protective-bubble.html
@Periscope: If the GOP have even the slightest hint of self-preservation, I suspect they would remove Trump using the 25th Amendment. That way he is gone immediately, instead of undergoing a drawn-out impeachment process, during which he can try to start a war for shits and giggles.
NickT says:
"The GOP Congress can only protect him so much and ignore this for so long"
What makes you think that they can't scurry off and shriek "But her emails! Fake news! Democrats want to kill you!" indefinitely? They've been lying, obstructing and selling out America for half a century now. Protecting a Russian-owned fascist cabal of traitors is going to be second nature to them.
Ask yourselves this: if the GOP decline, for whatever weaselly reasons, to do anything about the Trumpite Treason, whatcha gonna do about it, buddy? They control all three branches, their supporters will swallow glass mixed with pigshit if they think it spites liberals. What do you do if the GOP simply refuse to do anything, relying on the gerrymander plus intimidation by obese white weekend warriors at the polling booth?
geoff says:
JFC I am getting really tired of this Russian hysteria.
"Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told ABC News he did not see anything to suggest that Russia successfully infiltrated Donald Trump's presidential campaign or recruited any of Trump’s advisers — at least as of Jan. 20, when Clapper left office.
"There was no evidence whatsoever, at the time, of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians," Clapper, a retired three-star general and career intelligence officer, told ABC News' Brian Ross in an interview Monday for "World News Tonight."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/top-spy-chief-evidence-trump-campaign-aides-recruited/story?id=46013305
Now I know Clapper's a LIAR (he's the guy who said "we don't spy on Americans" right before the Snowden revelations) but I DON'T doubt that he'd burn Trump if he could. I think if there was ANY kind of "smoking gun" we'd have seen it by now.
Standard disclaimer: I personally think that Mr. Trump should have been prosecuted for (at the very least) violations of gaming law in NJ a long time ago. He's mobbed-up (or at the least has been in the past) and a Giant Evil Baby.
disgusted says:
I have been praying for an impeachment since this "disaster" was elected and I hope it will come to pass soon. However if the Liar-in-chief is impeached Pence should also go. Does anyone think that if the Russia connection is proven that he did not know also and colluded in the cover up?
Keep in mind however should both be put in jail, which I firmly believe should happen, the next in line is Paul Ryan and then Rex Tillerson. Good God we are doomed regardless of what happens with this crapfest.
democommie says:
I saw the title of the OP and thought:
"Tide goes in, tide goes out; you can't explain that."
As Billyous O'really famously said.
I, otoh, think that a rising tide lifts all shits, and when it falls, it stains the walls.
Trumpligula is safe until Mr. Penis and the rest decide he's too much of a liability. Watch Bannon and Miller. If they look like their sphincters (the ones in their buttholes, not the butthole they trot out for the daily newsbullshitting) all of a sudden wouldn't pass a turd the size of a toothpick, then His Oranngness might wanna start packin'.
Stephen Johnson says:
mago Says:
March 23rd, 2017 at 12:01 am
Russia. How long's that trope been trotted out?
Well since 1853 at least. That's the Crimean War, where the UK and France go to war with Russia to protect…Turkey (!) – maybe even back to the Great Northern War in the early 18th. Century
The US just inherited Russia as a bogeyman with real staying power.
The current Russia fracas is, I think, far more about needing an external bad guy to blame, rather than coming to grips with just how broken a lot of the power structures are here in the west (not the Russians aren't quite unpleasant in their own unique ways)
Ellis Weiner says:
Great thread and good piece.
No one is suggesting the GOP have anything remotely resembling principles, apart from self-preservation and serving their masters. If–as seems likely–Rexxon can't hack it as Sec. of State, they'd vote (albeit with "some reservations") to approve Trump's nomination of his horse to replace him.
But it's what Bill says above: once the little fish start being indicted, they'll turn on the bigger fish. Even if no one explicitly names Trump, it wouldn't surprise me if Pence/Ryan/whoever go to him and say, "They've got the goods on you. Either resign now, for 'health' reasons, or face an actual criminal trial."
And he'd concede. Who needs the aggravation? He never thought he'd win anyway, and has lived a life–of crime, cheating, etc.–under the assumption that the only people he'd have to actually be accountable to are the IRS.
So then the q. is the timeline. How long will this take? I think at least a year. Then the mid-terms will loom like a black hole everyone will scramble not to get sucked in by. (Great sentence.) So that will accelerate things.
Prairie Bear says:
@disgusted You skipped over Orrin Hatch (Senate President pro tem). Then, it's Tillerson, followed by the rest of the Trump-appointed cabinet in order of the creation of their departments. So yeah, your last sentence. It's frightening that I have to think Hatch might actually be the least bad of that whole lot. Not good at all, just slightly less bad. Maybe.
Which is one reason I wonder if all this talk of impeachment or 25th-amendment remedies might be a case of be careful what you wish for. I think Trump is vile and I voted for HRC, so I didn't want him in there, etc. etc. all the standard disclaimers. But what happens if we get all wound up into this dramatic constitutional crisis and he finally gets forced from office? Our politics for the almost the last two years has been "Trump Trump Trump," either from the love-him or hate-him sides. If we end up with Pence or Ryan, there will be this sense of relief and even triumph. The Villagers, Third-Way, etc. types will declare that "the system works!" and rejoice that we now have a "respectable" President. They would be saying that we have to heal now and be bipartisan and so on and the Dems would of course fall in line. OK, so that all sounds very bleak but it's one way that it could unfold.
Ellis Weiner says:
@Prairie Bear–
Agree–with Pence we'll get all the reactionary policies and none of the rollicking fun and daily laffs of Trump. Still, if there is hope it lies in the proles. If the Dems can take the House next year, it might be semi-tolerable.
Jestbill says:
…But Nixon was not impeached. His approval rating was 24% and 53% thought he should be impeached.
I had a bet back then about whether he would be impeached. We agreed beforehand that he would never resign. He resigned.
Lessee… Kerry was against the war in Vietnam: lost his election for President.
Hillary Rodham was a lawyer working to impeach Nixon: lost her election for President.
All the indicted co-conspirators served their time and did well writing books and appearing on talk shows. At least none of them ran for President.
Payback is hell.
Why do I think America is corrupt?
Periscope says:
@Bill,
Excellent points. I wish that justice would prevail like a Law and Order episode too. I wish that justice would have prevailed by sending Wall Street kleptos to jail after the melt down in 2008, but DOJ couldn't prove beyond a reasonable doubt that there was intention to defraud. At this point all of the prosecutors of Trump's associate's connection with Russian operatives are partisan, and the investigators (theoretically impartial) are political appointees. Even with hard evidence I think that there is high likelihood that such evidence will be plausibly deniable or will not reflect intention to commit treason. If I were a betting person I'd put my money on a repeat of the OJ Simpson trial where everyone knows he did it but the justice system fails prove it. Faith in the justice system is the ultimate victim.
To my point (with abundant evidence) I don't think Trump the psychopath can ever back down; he will never apologize; he will never admit his campaign promises are infeasible. He is more likely to double-down. His GOP enablers will more likely fall silent to save their own necks than get behind the weight of evidence disclosed by the DOJ or any special prosecutor.
Dave says:
The GOP is in utter chaos. Their recently-elected President is under investigation by the FBI and can't find anyone credible or intelligent in the party to join his administration. Their House Majority leader is disliked by all factions and will lose his job if his signature legislative accomplishment AHCA fails, which is likely to happen today. The Senate GOP contains too many moderates and neocons to let anything like AHCA or the President's budget pass. And the party's primary voters are composed of people so deluded they're happy to let a foreign power run roughshod over basic democratic norms if it means making "liberals" upset.
That's not a political party, its the end of Reservoir Dogs. The modern-day GOP is a mini-series written by Tarantino and directed by Robert Rodriguez. Lots of people are going to get hurt and there will be some low-production-value explosions, but they're ripping themselves to shreds.
I don't know how anyone survives that process. That doesn't mean the Democrats are tactical geniuses or Pelosi ends up on top again in 2018. Or that Pence, Ryan, Tillerson, Hatch and who knows who's next might not end up in the Oval Office, as we make our way down the line of succession until we find someone untainted and fit for office.
But there's a lot of people on the left who think this is a coup or a hidden battle between neocons who want war with Russia and oligarchs who want to prevent that, and people on the right who suddenly have a problem with the Deep State. I think this is a straightforward case of corruption, that took advantage of the aforementioned Tarantino/Rodriguez movie to place a figurehead in charge of a kleptocracy. There's no purpose to this madness but personal gain all around.
jon says:
The follow-up question is what do the Democrats in the Senate get out of the deal to get rid of Trump? If the Republicans try to impeach Trump and the Democratic Senators decide to say "Fuck you, GOP. You're stuck with him and we're now his bestest friends ever" then what happens?
It's going to cost at least three Supreme Court appointees, minimum. And Obamacare gets to continue. AND an immigration reform bill. And a status quo budget with some extras for defense, because of course why the fuck not?
It would be the most maddening, self-serving thing the Democrats in the Senate could do. And I don't see why they'd do their usual rolling over as usual.
Michael says:
Conservatives don't think "Russia" is the enemy. Republicans think American liberals are the enemy. "Russia" was just the rallying cry.
democommie says:
If Trump goes, Bannon, probably Miller, DeVos and some other extremely bad apples may go to. I tossed DeVos in because if it came to Mike Penis in the Oval Office he might not want one of those fucking heretics, not when are still plenty of Jesuits and a few of Tommu Tourq'ems order still around.
Aurora S says:
@Periscope–
"To my point (with abundant evidence) I don't think Trump the psychopath can ever back down; he will never apologize; he will never admit his campaign promises are infeasible. He is more likely to double-down."
Bingo.
I know this game. He will never, ever, ever admit fault for anything. It amounts to "looking weak", which is the worst possible thing in the world to him. He'll concoct conspiracy theories, blame others, accuse people of disloyalty (a cardinal sin!) for not blindly backing him on every little thing he says, and willingly spend ridiculous amounts of money "proving" he's right. Someone mentioned OJ-level stuff, which sounds about right. No matter how blatantly obvious, absurd, and egregious the action, no matter how damning the evidence, he'll turn it around on his accusers and try to destroy them politically for it.
There will be a small core of his fans that will remain loyal no matter the evidence and take it out on his accusers. I think this amounts less to the GOP keeping their wagon hitched to a lunatic in the name of naked self-interest and more that they're afraid of him and somewhat stunned. They may or may not have the balls to toss him out on his ass. Boy are they in a pickle–they've basically burned bridges with anyone outside the party, and someone's going to have to fall on the grenade. Maybe they'll draw straws to see who's ready to retire.
Aurora S says:
@Michael—
That, too.
c u n d gulag says:
t-RUMPLE-Thin-Skin will sign whatever stupid, chaotic, societally and economically damaging bullshit bills the GOP turds in Congress squirt-out and then smear on paper.
THAT'S a reason to keep him!
But, so will Mike "The Dense" Pence.
So, they really don't need Dumb-'n'old.
Ah, but t-RUMPLE-Thin-Skin still has the deep love of his deporables – aka: bigots, misogynists, xenophobes, the religiously intolerant uber-"Christian" assholes, super-conservatives, homophobes, rubes, dupes, marks, nit/half/dim/fuck-wits, stooges, dopes, morons, gullible goobers, etc…
They'll back him to right to Hell's gates – maybe even inside.
And THAT'S who the Republicans in Congress are deathly afraid of pissing-off!!!
And that's why they'll keep t-RUMPLE-Thin-Skin.
But, let his base start to crack, say "Hello!" to POTUS Pence – after a brief impeachment period.
I don't know what will make them stop their love…
Perhaps a dead boy in t-RUMPLE-Thin-Skin's White House bed.
No, a dead one can tell to tales.
Make that a live one.
One who's willing to talk.
This Guy Again says:
If you've read Hunter S. Thompson's reporting on Watergate, you see this kind of situation play out. Thompson was predicting that there was no way the Republicans would turn on Nixon because the Supreme Court wasn't going to order Nixon's tapes to be released, and the Republicans could just plug their ears and shout until the Democrats got tired. Then, the Supreme Court ordered that Nixon release the tapes and the whole Republican party turned on him almost overnight.
Skepticalist says:
Putin, the sociopath, has been called the richest man in the world and Donny can stand it so he has to make nice. The only thing Trump can do is take it out on us. Trump tweets are the perfect venue. Not even spineless Republicans can pry him away from his tablet. Perhaps with a loss today he'll step in something not even his "base" can stand. It's not easy though.Too bad he doesn't drink
Mike says:
If this is linked to the overall campaign and many of the major contributors (not money) then I think Mike Pence might get caught up in the wave. Can he effectively claim ignorance of something so pervasive? Even if he isn't swept away his clothes will be soaked through and he will stink of Trump until mid-terms when he will be a lame duck just waiting to go home.
seniorscrub says:
@c u n d gulag
"Ah, but t-RUMPLE-Thin-Skin still has the deep love of his deporables – aka: bigots, misogynists, xenophobes, the religiously intolerant uber-"Christian" assholes, super-conservatives, homophobes, rubes, dupes, marks, nit/half/dim/fuck-wits, stooges, dopes, morons, gullible goobers, etc…
They'll back him to right to Hell's gates – maybe even inside."
Reminds me of Hedley Lamarr:
"I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists. "
Ed B says:
Any day now Mango the Merciless' secret plan to end isis will come to fruition and everyone will rally behind him. Like when McConnell killed Bin Laden.
disgusted says:
Sorry my research must have been flawed. Either way the succession is awful unless (and we could only hope) that the whole pack of them would have to go and we could have another election, similar to other countries (within six weeks).
At least with one of the other equally abhorrent Losers we might get someone capable of giving a coherent speech, comment, response and can speak in more than a few characters so that the rest of the world might not laugh at us so much.
A year and a half ago I took a trip to England and was embarrassed, even back then, by the questions I was asked about why people would want to vote for such an idiot.
Anonymous Prof says:
You know…
If Trump is impeached, and is too stubborn to resign before the hammer comes down, who can say what he might do? I find the argument that he would start a war to be pretty compelling. I can also imagine him deciding, why the fuck not, I'll launch a few nukes and assure my place in history. Just nuke Iran, because in the long term they'll thank me for lancing the boil. I can also imagine him trying (and, IMO, failing, big league) to have his political opponents assassinated. I think that's the best-case scenario, actually. Trump tries to have key leaders of the GOP resistance assassinated by the CIA, or the Mafia, or whatever, and his would-be assassins just roll their eyes and go to the press.
Nick says:
Pence would not be a good president, or an okay president, or a not-totally-shitty president. However, he probably would not start fights with Australia. He probably would back off the dumbassed border wall bullshit and maybe the travel ban. He wouldn't embarrass the country every time he opens his mouth. He wouldn't spend weeks obsessing about how big his crowd was. He would at least feign respect for democratic norms and freedoms (see, e.g., Pence's response to the Hamilton crew–"That's democracy" or something of that nature–versus Trump's response–demanding a safe space because someone was mean to his friend).
Pence would be a shitty president. But he would at least not be a narcissistic sociopath who divides his time between a small child's understanding of politics and policy and a small child's understanding of decorum. At this point, I'll take it.
Skepticalist says:
Any impeachment proceeding would be rigged.
jharp says:
"5. The GOP realizes that an impeached Trump would be replaced with another Republican from whom they can get anything Trump can give them"
And there is the problem.
I think we are better off keeping the clueless clown in office. At least until after the 2018 midterms.
Justicia says:
The wheels are coming off the clown car and they know it. How many fiascos before the worms turn?
Self preservation is the only value today's GOP holds and already they're sensing that if they stick with Trump they're going over a cliff in 2018. They'd much rather have Pres. Pence in the WH when they face the voters. Sure they may loose a few congress critters in districts where Trump diehards can tip a close election, but they'll lose a lot more races in districts where Trump voters realize they've been had.
But the last thing the Repugnants want is a full on investigation with all the juicy bits leaking to the press for months. So, a few more crazy tweets from Trump and we'll be hearing talk about the 25th Amendment.
democommie says:
When the emperor's new clothes are nothing by Huggees, wtf ya gonna do?
schmitt trigger says:
" I can also imagine him deciding, why the fuck not, I'll launch a few nukes and assure my place in history."
Götterdämmerung all over again.
schmitt trigger says:
"I guess, I can’t be doing so badly, because I’m president, and you’re not."
Of course, Trump's latest phrase is totally frightening, because, you know, he is indeed the POTUS, and vastly better individuals are not.
sophronia says:
Even with Trump himself out of the picture, we're still left with a very big problem: a country full of voters who are willing to immolate themselves just to make sure snooty college kids can't have safe spaces or gender-neutral bathrooms. Now that Trump has proved that all you need to do to get elected is to constantly spout off like an InfoWars comments section, what's to stop the next guy who's willing and able to do that? And how long until the deplorables decide that talk isn't enough anymore and start voting in monsters with body counts like Duterte?
This problem is a lot bigger than getting Trump out of the White House. We've got to figure out how to bring back shame.
Safety Man! says:
If Republican congressmen impeach Trump it will just confirm his constituents feeling of the government being hopelessly corrupt and actively being against them. It would be suicide, perhaps literally, on their part. Trump is not going anywhere, all of this conjecture that no, today's revelation will finally be the one to break the camel's back is escapism, imo. I think we're better served concentrating on the next wave of state elections.
That being said, my personal escapist fantasy is that we take the reddest state in the union and allow it to opt out of Social Security, Medicaid, EPA, whatever, and then eventually close off its borders as it devolves into a Mad Max-esque hellscape.
democommie says:
"ven with Trump himself out of the picture, we're still left with a very big problem: a country full of voters who are willing to immolate themselves.."
I think that this sort of thinking is unconstructive and demoralizing.
I make a lot of badly thought out comments, here and elsewhere; nature of mebeast.
However. It is quite important to distinguish, imo, between the recent election's vote counts. and "a country full of voters who are willing to immolate themselves.". It appears that about 30% of the 200M (according to a couple of things I looked at quickly) voted for trump v 31% who voted for Hilary. That left about 39% of registered voters who did not exercise the franchise. So, the country is not FULL of batshit KKKrazzee morons who are willing to sacrifice on the altar of hatred and vicarious capitalism.
I think it's a fairly safe bet that a much larger %age of Trumpbaggerz and hard core Reichwingerz voted for him than sane people voted for Hilz. Assuming that even 5% of the 90M+/- who did not vote had voted in crucial states, for sanity–this conversation would not be happening. We would, instead, be harping about Hilary's inability/reluctance/stupidity/moral cowardice/corporatist fealty or whatever our pet peeve is about her style of governance–which is, of course, not wonderful.
The numbers are almost certainly there, to reverse or, at least, stop the slide into a fiscal and moral abyss. The trick is getting people to the polls, after educating them a little bit. I'm not a genius (at least not in any practical way) and I don't know what the mechanics of that tactic might be. I do know that Trumpligula's support is not enough IF the other 65%+ of the electorate show up at the polls.
Here's just one thought on "teaching" people. I don't have any eldery relatives who voted for the Ahole-in-Chief, but a lot of us do. If I knew that my parents were handing the knife to the people that are cutting our throats, I would have a conversation with them. It might run something like this:
"If you still think that Trump is your white knight, that's your business. You need to know that he's fucking US, not just me and people who you don't like or people you fear. When he's done fucking them, the "success" having gone to his head (and there's no room in there for anything BUT "success" and the giant ego it feeds) he'll be coming for you. If he can get away with gutting the programs for the poorest, weakest and least protected among us–why stop there? When his "plan" is at fruition and you lose YOUR benefits like Medicare and Social Security where will you turn? You won't be able to move in with us, because we will be living under a fucking bridge!"
The above is merely a suggestion but, fuck it, tough love isn't just for recalcitrant teens, anymore.
Mo says:
"…their supporters will swallow glass mixed with pigshit if they think it spites liberals."
"…a country full of voters who are willing to immolate themselves just to make sure snooty college kids can't have safe spaces or gender-neutral bathrooms."
When every instinct inside you says, "Slap those jackasses silly" at best, and "Cleanse their domiciles with a rain of fire" at worst, would democommie's suggestion make a dent, do ya think? Worth a try, as a hope-for-the-best-expect-the-worst strategy?
When his "plan" is at fruition and you lose YOUR benefits like Medicare and Social Security where will you turn? You won't be able to move in with us, because we will be living under a fucking bridge!"
Mo says:
p.s. SeniorScrub, that was great.
democommie says:
@ Mo:
At this point I don't think it can hurt with the people who actually voted for the asshole. I also don't think it hurts with people who are unclear on the concept of a nation being an organism–when you hurt anyone it hurts everyone (sometimes it's "butterfly effect", sometimes it's a Forcefucking5 Tornado). "Painting the pain" is a well proven tool of negotiation. Even the mobster's, "Nice little store ya got here; be a shame somethin' should happen to it!" is, at bottom, "painting the pain". In the case of the mobster it is also a threat.
I'm not sure that people who are STILL pissed off enough at Hilz and DNC for not handing the keys to BernJillGar are reachable.
BTW, I just saw about 30 seconds of the "Healthcare Showdown on Capitol Hill" on the news. Assuming the footage is current (it is, afaict) it looks like most of the Congrifters have already made up their minds and are attending to other business or flying home to lie to their constituents.
My Congrifter, John Katko (Reactionary, NY) who has said he won't vote for the bill, also manages to still not hold public town meetings, despite flying back here to do sound bytes and photo ops as needed. Douchebags will be douchebags–and he's not anywhere near the asshole that some of his fellow reptilican congrifters are.
mothra says:
Well, of course Ed wrote this post before Dumbass Nunes pulled his shit with his prize piece of information that Trump + his associates were "tapped" (yes, I know that is completely inaccurate) in the transition. Thus allowing Donnie and the GOP to crow that he was RIGHT when he tweeted that Obama tapped him. As we all know, the truth doesn't matter–what matters is that counter story is now out there. However, Nunes's little trick has backfired where it counts and we will likely get special investigation now because he has shown that he is biased.
But really, for all of you who think there will be indictments—why do you think there will be indictments? WHO, exactly, will indict Trump? A Jeff Sessions-run DOJ?
geoff says:
@Mothra– exactly. I don't hold out much hope for ANY kind of serious "investigation" of the GEB or his cronies. He's the boss now. The DCI, Pompeo, is Trump's guy. AG Sessions ditto. Comey's kind of a wildcard, but given the way he knifed Mrs. Clinton, I don't see a lot of hope there either.
sophronia says:
democommie —
Oh, I understand that the mathematical majority of the country is not riding the Trump train straight into the side of the mountain. But the guy has an 80% approval rating among Republicans. There is a large number of people who are pleased as punch by what he's doing. And as we are seeing right now, there are ways that this group of people can take power despite being outnumbered, and there's not much that the rational can do to stop them once they do.
Sure, it's possible that the Trump scandal becomes so toxic that he gets impeached or is forced to resign. And what happens then? His rabid fans would see it as a betrayal, and they would only become more rabid, and their delusions would still be fed by the right wing daily rage media machine. And we would still have a party in power that has to answer to these psychos every election. All those MAGA people are still going to be there and still convinced that voting to make gay people's lives harder is more important than making sure their grandkids don't die from lack of medical care. Remember, the good guys took down Nixon 40 years ago — and look where we are now. Second verse, even worse than the first.
Democrats have to find a way to break the fever, so that this kind of "burn-it-all-down" thinking crawls back into the swamp from which it emerged. How to do that is the big, huge, intractable question. Even the liberals and progressives I know are vulnerable to it.
democommie says:
"Breaking the fever" as you say is a hard job, it's not a complex one, at least to me.
Calling motherfucking liars, "motherfucking liars" or saying something just as biting using "civil" language is a start. When somebody tells me that Trump is "doing things diffruntly", I ask them, "How?". They never, ever have an answer that makes any sense. So, the two paths that are available to me are, "Okay, so, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, then." or "You're a fucking idiot. You accept lies from people because they make you feel better about yourself. You're willing to suffer to see other people suffer more.". Granted, that can get you face punched but praying and hoping ain't gonna do shit.
Get out the vote. Get out the people who DON'T like what's going on but are either too lazy or too stupid to vote. Therein lies salvation*.
* Not THAT kind of salvation.
Mo says:
democommie –
My reaction to anyone who tries that "Let's just agree to disagree" oil is that they richly and righteously deserve to be turned into a grease spot.
Went to a local legislative hearing yesterday, and one of our reps trotted that one out. I was in the front row audience and trying to behave myself because my bro in law was testifying and I didn't want to embarrass him, so I didn't leap out of my chair and yell, "Fuck that smarmy feel-good shit, you ignorant twit!" but instead just inflated like a bullfrog and glared. She no doubt thought I was having a seizure.
democommie says:
Yeah, I know that feeling. It usually happens when I'm trying not to shit in the punchbowl (AKA, telling the truth) at some family gathering.
Katydid says:
Had a long and frustrating conversation with someone recently who's over-the-moon about Trump. He grew up in Idaho near the Navy base; it's possible our paths crossed when my father was stationed there in the mid-1970s. My memories of Idaho are druggies, drug-runners, paranoid gun nuts, 12-year-old Mormon child-brides, and polygamous families with all 700 kids on welfare and food stamps. He remembers being homeschooled by his grandparents and "going to town" with food stamps every month to stock up the larder.
He's so thrilled that Trump, "the successful businessman" (his definition of "success" is apparently "failing at everything he touches"), who's going to "kick the freeloaders off welfare and Obamacare".
I pointed out that he, himself, benefitted from welfare but HIS case was different because his family "deserved" it because his parents (both drug addicts) "were ill".
I pointed out Trump's actual track record regarding his businesses, and he called me a "hater"…and then went off about Hillary Clinton's emails.
You really can't have a conversation with these people. They're not based in reality.
democommie says:
"You really can't have a conversation with these people. They're not based in reality."
Nor are they familiar with the notion of compassion, empathy or irony.
When Barack Obama mentioned these people clinging to their gunz and religion he should have tacked on racism, xenophobia,self-hatred, narcissism and a few other societally dysfunctional traits.
What they get from Trumpligula and other demogogues is like verbal oxycrack dripping into their brains via their ears.
disgusted says:
I have given up talking to Trump voters. They always have an answer that makes no sense. If I hear Bengazi and email one more time I think I will puke. If you ask them about Bengazi they have no idea about what it was all about it is just a Buzz word to them. When you counter with the debacle in Yehem…SILENCE. If you had a blindfold on when speaking to them you would believe it was coming out of the Liar-in-chief's mouth. Their excuse for P…..y grabbing is OH he was just bragging He really didn't do it. When you ask about the women who came forward…well all they really wanted was money. they are all liars. When you ask about mimicking a handicapped man. Oh he said that was not what he was doing. He wouldn't do that. The thing I hear the most is they voted for him because he is a Business man. When you point out his many bankruptcies, the people he put out of business though his scams and the employees he screwed…it is …. OH all business people go bankrupt and nothing on the employees that lost everything. And like manchild they change the subject to berating Bill Clinton and what a pig he was/is (about that I actually agree). It isn't worth my time any more to even talk to them they are living in alternate realities and they will only see what is going on when he screws them big time. Then they will blame the EVIL Democrats. Hindsight is better than foresight!
Bill says:
All of you who are saying that the Russian ties are nothing and Trump isn't going anywhere are as wrong as you were a year ago when you were saying Trump wasn't going to get the nomination and certainly wouldn't win the election.
It was clear as day that the election was his to lose as early as fall 2015. For that last month even I thought he might've tanked it with that pussygrabbing shit. But it was always his to lose. And still, despite him being the GOP front runner for months most people ignored that reality and pretended that he couldn't possibly be the nominee.
Now, Trump is burning bridges faster than anybody could imagine, aligning the GOP and the MIC and the media against him, and generally acting like a idiot who is completely over his head. His allies like Manafort and Stone and Page are all either flailing or strangely silent. Hell, even the Russian media have begun largely ignoring him rather than celebrating him.
And again, you're saying, "Ain't gonna happen. Nope. Nothing's gonna change. All of you who are saying otherwise aren't sober thinkers like me!"
Stop being defeatists who suck at identifying the reality right in front your noses. This is how Democrats suck and why we lose.
Mo says:
President Ryan?
Although it has elicited almost no comment anywhere in the press, there is really only one struggle that means a thing to Washington Republicans today, and it is a struggle to the death almost literally. There are a dozen grounds to legitimately impeach Donald Trump at this point, but there is only one person on earth who has his finger on that button, and that is the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. The morally dead Ryan, however, has nothing to gain personally from that, unless he can be certain that he will bring Mike Pence down with Trump, therefore making himself President, which has been his intent all along. No issue of misuse of the Presidency, of corruption, of treason, is going to get Ryan to push that button until he is certain of achieving his goal.
Trump is really a rather stupid man, but he is a cunning one, with a massive instinct for self preservation. I strongly believe that he is very happy with the failure of this bill. Yes, it delivered a blow to him, but it delivered a far greater one to Ryan, and right now, given that there is not one single Republican on earth who will collaborate in removing Trump for his actual criminality and betrayal, Ryan's self-serving is the main threat to Trump, so any damage he can do to Ryan is worth the price.
Stu says:
A Point By Point Rebuttal Just to Be A Contrarian (Because I Have a Grant Due And I'm Procrastinating)
**1. "The GOP will never turn on him in Congress." Look, I know it doesn't feel like it – it feels more like an eternity – but Trump has only been President for sixty-one days. Nobody could realistically expect they would impeach him at the first hint of a scandal. They've stood behind him thus far, but "thus far" hasn't been very much time in this case. So…***
But the GOP in congress has already had a number of reasons to turn on him. Emoluments clause, radically changing the makeup of the NSC, including white nationalists in his inner circle, allegations of sexual assault, fraud, etc. It hasn't been the first whiff of scandal, but rather a series of scandals that would have fell any other political figure. The Russia allegations are definitely the most serious, but what's to stop a Republican congress from sweeping these under the rug, with the help of news outlets like Fox and Breitbart?
***2. Two months of constant damage control might be OK with the Congressional Republicans. After six months? Eight? Remember, members of Congress do not like wasting their time on things that provide them with no benefit, and that midterm election will be here before you know it. What they feel willing to put up with today may not be what they're willing to tolerate in six months. Remember Watergate; Republicans stood firmly behind Nixon, right up to the point where they didn't. If the tide turns, it will turn with dramatic speed.
I'm not sure that the incentives are the same for most of the Republicans in congress, especially for those in safe districts…and there are a lot more of those now than there were in '74. And it doesn't help that dems have traditionally been somewhere between dogshit and horseshit when it comes to voter mobilization for midterms. However, I do agree with you that there will be no slow death here…if it happens, it will happen quickly.
***3. Trump has surrounded himself with a group of people (excepting family) who seem almost comically self-interested and ready to turn on each other in a heartbeat. There's no Ollie North ready to take a bullet for the old man. Some of his hangers-on look like they would squeal on their own mother under the slightest pressure.***
If it came to that point, yes. However, if it looks like everyone has a reasonable chance of getting away with this, maybe not.
***4. It's Russia. Russia. Americans agree on few things, but almost everybody hates the Russians ("Alt-Right" dead-enders who recently discovered a deep love for Russia excepted). The Russians are The Bad Guys. Sure, your core group of 20% of the population will defend Trump to the bitter end. Your McCain-style Republicans will end up deciding between a GOP president they never wanted in the first place and America's long-time rival and enemy.***
I'm not so sure about this. I don't think a majority of Republican voters care too much about Russia, and a decent proportion admire Putin specifically because he is a strong man. It looks as though the right in the U.S. is looking more and more like the far right in Europe (Western Europe in particular, as the far right in certain parts of Eastern Europe don't have the luxury of not being existentially threatened by Putin) insofar as they are rabidly nationalist, protectionist, and anti-immigrant. I think you're right about the alt-right, but they like Putin for a different reason: namely, his defense of The West against Islam, and his brand of Russian Nationalism that they think could be exported to the U.S. But I'd imagine (and I don't have data on this, so it is admittedly speculation) that a lot of Republican voters like him because he seems to "get the job done." Plus, to a lot of them, the ends (beating Hillary Clinton) justified the means. So I'm not sure…
***5. The GOP realizes that an impeached Trump would be replaced with another Republican from whom they can get anything Trump can give them…except for constant headaches and bad press.***
True, but the one thing that drives the contemporary Republican party is not looking weak and feckless, or at least not admitting they look weak and feckless…hence the wholesale rejection of the strategy behind the 2012 autopsy. Because that is the facade, right? They have no real positive answer for healthcare, or job creation, or anything like that, so they have to look the part, and have the confidence, and fuck all to everyone else…They are the functional equivalent to an 18 year old reinventing himself in college by faking it till he makes it…
***6. The most important point is that, as I've repeated to the point of absurdity, the Russia story gets worse almost by the day. Like clockwork, a new piece of Even Worse News for Trump comes out like clockwork every two or three days. There is no indication this is going to stop.***
Until he whips his dick out in public or something, and CNN and MSNBC and HuffPo and every other single news outlet get distracted about DickGate and they have talking heads debating the propriety of where and when he whipped his dick out, and by the way Kelly Anne Conway was sitting weird, and what the best name for the scandal is…should we dub him the Cockservative, or Tricky Dick, but wait we already used that second one so we can't and then CNN will have a stupid title at the bottom of the screen that says "Members Only?" because it will have already been normalized to a point to which the ambit of the debate is whether it was proper for the camera man to have zoomed in on it or whether it was an affront to the Office of the President to not have included his face in frame whilst he was flashing everyone….
But in all, I really really really hope you've got it right, and I'm admittedly in a cynical place (politically) right now, so, cards on the table…
mago says:
@Katydid. Was just relaying to a friend today the Idaho scene you describe, of which I possess personal experience.
Spot on, only the child brides usually hit puberty before betrothal, (yeah I know it comes earlier these days) and now it's heroin in them thar sagebrush hills among the lava rock, along with all the rest.
This, of course, has nothing to do with Ed's topic. It's just that when you talk Idaho it hits a resonant/dissonant chord, so had to say something.
Skepticalist says:
My friend who gets nearly $75,000 dollars from various government pensions likes to say that food stamps recipients should be taken out and shot…..every time I talk to him.
Make America America Again.
Mike Furlan says:
Just saw this:
"I never lie because I don't fear anyone. You only lie when you're afraid."
John Gotti
Makes me wonder, Trump is afraid of everyone?
democommie says:
Skepticalist:
I like some people that I have serious disagreements with. I'm pretty sure that if I knew somebody who was sucking up that sorta gummint gelt and they were down on me and my EBT, I would tell them to go educate themselves or just to go fuck themselves if the library was closed. It's hard to have to feel like that but I've had to it more than once.
This may belong on an earlier thread–hell, it may not belong here at all.
The arguments about trying to "reason" with Trumpliguturds will go on, I suppose, until both sides are convinced (if that ever happens) that they're wasting their time. I saw a story on the news crawler around 8:00PM about a KY lawyer, "Mr. Social Security", pleading guilty in a s massive SSDI fraud scam. I did some googling and put the following comment on another blog:
____________
"This is OT, in one sense, but it all sorta ties back into the whole, "For me, but not for thee; Hate Obummercare, love me some ACA; damn dirty furriners and darkies stealin' allathem welfare $.".
A lawyer from Pikeville, KY just entered a guilty plea in a $600M dollar SSDI fraud case. He was on trial with a judge and a psychiatrist who were apparently up to their necks in the fraud.
Pikeville, KY. which was, in 1967, overwhelmingly democrat went for Trumpligula 19,747 to Hilary 4,280.
The party of personal responsibility, my fucking ass.
The following excerpt is from a story in Lexington's Herald Leader newspaper:
"The agency ultimately identified about 1,500 beneficiaries, most of them in Eastern Kentucky, for re-determination hearings, said Prestonsburg attorney Ned Pillersdorf, who led an effort to find attorneys for the people.
Most of the hearings are over, and a little less than half the people won decisions to keep their benefits, meaning about 800 people lost money they depended on, Pillersdorf said.
“It’s a humanitarian crisis,” Pillersdorf said.
People who lost benefits can appeal.
Pillersdorf is representing former Conn clients in a class-action lawsuit that seeks damages from him. His guilty plea is good news in that effort to get people money, Pillersdorf said".
This situation is a humanitarian crisis? What is the "situation" where those oxyraddled, coked-up, shine-cookin', work-shirkin', good ol boys were cheatin' the gummint out of $600M? WTF is that, Good citizenship?
I don't know if that Pillersdorf is a decent guy or just another ambulance chaser but that last sentence is comedy gold. Those people will never see a fucking dime."
____________—-
I don't think "reason" is an operative word for that process.
Katydid says:
@mago; yeah. People talk about the beauty of Idaho and that's certainly true, but you can't get out and enjoy it because there's a very good chance you'll get shot for accidentally trespassing on someone's meth lab or pot patch (even if you stick to public land), or, hell, get shot just going to WalMart because apparently those 'independent brave souls' are terrified to go anywhere without being fully loaded, and frequently the guns discharge accidentally, or when some Rill Murkkkun's 2-year-old gets ahold od them. The gun problem wasn't quite as bad in the 1970s, but it was bad enough that my mother didn't want us outside wandering around, and would only allow us to see friends in our house, not theirs (guns & drugs and lecherous relatives).
And Idaho is where the Mormons stash people they don't want the gummint to find–quite often child-brides, or unwilling child-brides, or entire polygamous clans. The Mormons are not just Donny and Marie–hell, the Osmonds weren't the clean-cut family they were portrayed to be. The clan has 2 older sons who were deaf and hidden from public view, the family got their public start because the parents had no other way to make money besides putting their sons on television and hoping for fame, Marie was sexually abused for years by either a family member or family friend, and she was excommunicated at one point (not sure if she still is) for having a child who was openly gay.
Anyway, the point is, these folks certainly do have their hands out for gummint money while simultaneously cursing the gummint. The Trump supporter I spoke with adores Trump because he's not government and that's exactly what the government needs. I asked him if he needed to have his appendix out, would he go to a surgeon or pick the guy in the street with the crooked three-card-monty game, because why would you want someone with experience doing the job handling something important?!?
democommie says:
And now, it appears that Trumpligula's short term NSA was having a chat with some Turks (discussing, "hypothetically", how to kidnap and rendite a muslim cleric whom the the Turkish government considers "dangerous*". He was, apparently a lobbyist for the Turkish government while being on TeamTrumpligula, one who was not registered with U.S. authorities–a felony, if Flynn were to be indicted.
More shit comes out on thes assclowns every day.
I used the term over at Dispatches, earlier today, which should be definitive of the process used to form the members of Trumpligula's cabinet and other appointments, "Ratvetting".
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-cia-director-mike-flynn-and-turkish-officials-discussed-removal-of-erdogan-foe-from-u-s-1490380426
* It's likely true but he's just ONE of many.
Katydid says:
On the news now; Trump still blaming the Democrats for his healthcare bill not passing.
April says:
@katy – I just love how he's saying that we own Obamacare now. Like that's a bad thing.
I'm happy to take ownership.
mago says:
@Katy. Check out Jon Krakauer"s "Under the Banner of Heaven" if you haven't already done so.
Not following current Trump drunken dumb show (you don't even have to drink!) but thanks.
Brian M says:
April: Except Trump will be sure to cut funding and make policy decisions that make an already teetering, incoherent mess (ACA) fail completely. While blaming the Democrats for the failure 100%.
democommie says:
@ Brian M:
I share your pessimism (it's realistic) but I also see that their public dissing of him AND Ryan is a signal that they're not all so hellbent on destroying their constituents.