Perhaps everyone simply thought that Mike and I would sit on our laurels and wait for the results of today’s election. That was definitely a faulty opinion. We have actively been trading in this free market of election results hoping to maximize our final 2006 midterm election profits.
I am going to give a quick update on what we have done.
- Late last night we had made some money on our gamble that the Democrats would win the senate. So, naturally, we sold them out hard. Took our profits and strengthened our position that Democrats would take at least 20 seats in the house.
- We also noticed some severe pricing irregularities in Rhode Island. The Wall Street Journal was telling us that Chaffee (R) had the momentum in the race. He was also strongly undervalued. As a result, we sold Whitehouse (D) and took a position in favor of Chaffee, it was simply an economic no brainer.
Come on Chaffee! You're now our guy!
- Changing position on the Rhode Island race freed up some money for another decent investment. We are now in favor of the Democrats taking the house while the Republicans retain the senate. Mathematically it makes sense; the Democrats will almost surely take the house (even fox news agrees). However, to take the senate they would essentially have to win three coin flip elections. Statistically this is a 12.5% chance, whereas the position was valued at 41%.
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We also used this money to strengthen our position that the Democrats would take at least 25 seats in the house.
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- We thought we had found a good value, so we purchased Democrat Ben Cardin (on Ed's advice) in Maryland.
- Earlier today market fluctuations left us with a wonderful opportunity to back out of or hedge in the House of 30 seats. We moved this back to 35 seats at no cost to us. We are at slightly more risk if the Democrats don't win at least 20 seats, but we do much better if they beat 30.
- Everything else that isn't mentioned is unchanged.
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Honestly how could we possibly go against Ed's gut in TN?
Capitalism at Work!
Ed says:
I think the WSJ is guilty of some wishful thinking.
Rick says:
Ed might be right here. 44% of precincts report that Whitehouse leads 52/48 (10pm). A slim margin, depending on which precincts are left…
erik says:
Yes, he was. Its a shame we went to the Tenacious D movie and didn't notice until now. You do have to admit, Chaffee is an attractive man.
Rick says:
Yes, a portrait worthy of the dollar.
He almost looks like he has a cleft lip.