So this figures to be a very late night, but I'll give NH its moment.
After all, the world only gives a shit about it for a couple weeks (and one big night) every four years. One thing is true, and not just media hype: thus far, this is a primary season unlike any other. It's enough to make someone as lame as me really excited. Here are some ideas, feel free to add your own alongside your reactions.
1. I had some serious doubts about Fred Thompson's viability, but I'm not going to pretend that I thought he'd be this bad. I'm past pointing out the obvious (he's finished) and now I'm simply marveling at the historical shittiness of his stillborn campaign. Remember when all those right-wingers were so excited about him? Good times.
2. Hillary Clinton has really dug in her heels and made a stand. Can anyone be optimistic about her odds, though? After she gets her ass handed to her in South Carolina (and probably Nevada) she will be, at best, 1-for-4 in January. Assuming she hangs on tonight, is having a narrow win over Obama in New England really an inspiring accomplishment for hat-hanging? This is a state in which she should be cruising. Instead it's 10:30 PM and she's sweating it out. Kudos to her for her victory, but I can't say it inspires confidence.
3. Giuliani is pathetic. Despite his repeated insistence that he wasn't trying to win the early races (a dubious strategy in any case) he spent more than almost any other candidate – $3 million plus. And he's duking out 4th place with Crazy Uncle Ron Paul's circus sideshow. When you're neck-and-neck with the joke candidate, things are not going well for you.
4. This story does an excellent job of illustrating how little public opinion polling is worth.
5. Mike Huckabee did better than I thought – he cracked the top 3 – but it's fairly obvious how limited his appeal is outside of Jesusland. If, as I suspect, this is McCain's high point (a la 2000), I still think that Romney is well-positioned. The commentators are speaking of him in dire terms, but the guy has a shitload of money and is the middle ground between the religious zealot and the 71 year-old war cheerleader.
6. Almost 60% of the voters in New Hampshire took Democratic ballots. That's two straight lopsided margins in favor of the Democrats. It will be very interesting to see how this shakes out in SC.
7. If Edwards is serious about refusing to exit the race prior to the convention, he's A) delusional and B) going to do significant harm to Obama.
Things feel very unclear at the moment, and I suspect that anyone who argues otherwise is lying.
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