BIRDIE

I know this is snarky and unfair, but a little birdie whom I trust dearly and desires anonymity has planted something in my ear.

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Based on data available to this person, he/she told me that Hillary Clinton is in for a very rude surprise tonight courtesy Obama and Edwards.
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Take that for what it's worth. But if she finishes 3rd, you can stick a fork in her.

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THE DOG AND PONY SHOW

On Iowa Caucus Day (for those of you who still can't f'n believe it's on January 3rd, I feel you) I encourage you to give this TalkLeft post a read. It's ostensibly about Mitt Romney, but he's pretty incidental to the point this emphasizes.

I think this Romney event summarizes just about everything that disgusts and disinterests Americans about contemporary politics. Herein we see Iowa / New Hampshire campaigning at its finest: coreographed photo ops with "normal folk" as props and background. The reporters outnumber the supporters/voters by about 10 to 1, and Romney couldn't be happier about it. After all, they're his intended audience.

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I can guarantee that if 1000 voters but zero reporters showed up to an event he'd be despondent (unless, of course, it was a fund-raiser).
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Nothing – and I mean nothing – about this event makes the setting or attendees necessary aside from branding it as "Romney visits common folk in their hovels." The candidates descend on these tiny, godforsaken towns like locusts, devouring every diner, church, and town hall in sight before moving on to the next field. After the caucus/primary, of course, you couldn't pay any of them enough to visit Keokuk or Plover or Waterville Valley again.

For someone who teaches courses about elections and the presidency, it's remarkable how little attention I can force myself to pay to the election.

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This process has turned into something nauseatingly cynical and flat-out stupid. The IA/NH dog-and-pony show is essentially a bunch of power-hungry millionaires playing at giving a shit about what us unwashed plebes have to say. They go on expensive "listening tours" and show up at town hall meetings, as though the semantic act of calling something a listening tour while patiently enduring the whining rabble means that the candidates really give a shit. There's nothing quite like the trademark Hillary Clinton rictus – pained, stretched too tight, and threateningly insincere – to make voters think "Wow, she really cares."

Tomorrow is a day of reckoning for many, but not all, of the candidates. Those who finish anyplace lower than 3rd might as well start writing concession speeches.

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Their fund raising will slow to a trickle and the campaign will quickly become a money-losing proposition. But despite their immense power, I think Iowa/NH voters feel more stunned than anything else. I can't imagine how two years of this insane media circus could leave anyone feeling more prepared to make a decision. Were I an Iowan, the hypocrisy of the East Coast elite blazing into town, momentarily pretending that they care about the ultimate flyover state, would poison my opinions of everyone involved.