On Sunday's edition of This Week on ABC, the panelists engaged in a discussion about the overall mood of the electorate in which Cokie Roberts characterized it as "slightly Democratic." Many commentators, for example the folks at Crooks & Liars (where I continue to get good plugs every time Mike, who apparently hates me, goes on vacation and leaves the Round-Up to guest moderators), have mocked Roberts for her biased or flat-out incorrect assessment of the current political landscape. They cite both polls and commentary by well-respected political scientist John Judis as support for the idea of a strongly Democratic swing in the electorate. I will now put myself in the awkward position of defending the likes of George Will and Cokie Roberts.
The C&L author comments, "Um, hello? See that forest, Cokie? It's made of trees." Oh, Cokie sees the trees alright. And she knows quite well how they behave. A year prior to the election they will all voice appropriately loud discontent with the Republicans. They'll talk about how they're tired of the war in Iraq (they are either legitimately sick of it or afraid of looking like a moron for voicing their support for it). They will voice outright hatred for George W. Bush. And they will claim, in the most extreme cases, that they are done with the GOP altogether.
Twelve months from now the election will require action, not just complaining. Complaining is easy and cost-free. People can say whatever the hell they want right now because it doesn't matter. Making a decision will have consequences. It is easy to offer sweeping criticism of the Republicans in 2007, but Cokie understands that when shove comes back to push the Republican Issue of Last Resort – taxes – will sway oh-so-many of these newly discontented suburban Republicans. They have 12 long months to rationalize why voting for Giuliani or whoever is "different" than supporting the incumbent administration. The right-wing media will give them dozens of excuses for why Rudy ain't so bad (or, more likely, why Hillary is Too Horrible to Imagine Let Alone Support).
In those 12 months they'll slowly – and so terribly predictably – decide that they're really against the war in Iraq, but……golly, ducking the Alternative Minimum Tax sure would be sweet. They'll reassure their friends that they really think the GOP is corrupt and incompetent, but…..boy could they use that Capital Gains Tax cut. They value human life, but the sad truth is that they value paying 31% in federal income taxes instead of 33% just a little more.
No, Cokie Roberts is not intelligent. On this point, however, she is either correct by accident or showing a deeper understanding of the selfish, solipsistic trees than her critics realize.
(PS: Apologies to a favorite regular commenter for the political flavor of Friday's NPF)