GAME THEORIES

Posted on | by Ed

I have some bad news. There are about a half-dozen ways the Roy Moore situation can play out, and most of them are wins for the GOP. As unbelievable as that is – that nominating a pedophile could end up benefiting the party – don't act like you're entirely shocked. This is 2017 after all.

Here are some outcomes.

1. Moore stays on the ballot and loses to Doug Jones. Democrats get a brief win out of this, since Jones would run and presumably lose in 2020.

2. Moore wins, the GOP and its slim majority expel him from the Senate, and Alabama's Republican governor appoints a replacement. This is the most likely outcome, I believe, and is a huge GOP win. This enables them to present themselves as heroes and do lots of phony moralizing about how they just cannot condone this man, and then he gets replaced by some totally generic Republican who doesn't cause anyone any trouble. Democrats would have to go along with the vote to expel him – how could they not?

3. Moore withdraws and is replaced by another Republican who wins.
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Same as #2 but without the added "We gallantly saved you from this man" talking points.
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4. Moore withdraws and is replaced by someone who doesn't end up appearing on the ballot, leading Moore and Other Republican to split votes and hand Jones a victory. See #1.

5. Someone like Jeff Sessions is pushed as a write-in or Independent candidate at the last minute. This would be a power play by the GOP leadership in the Senate to sink Moore's chances of winning. A write-in most likely would not do well enough to win, but would certainly tip the balance in a close Jones-Moore contest.
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6. Moore wins and then a couple of GOPers in the Senate balk on expelling him for whatever nonsensical reason they whip up on the spot. The party holds the seat but exposes itself to an endless barrage of "They welcomed a child molester into their club; worse, they lied about it" attacks.

7. America disbands after realizing that the mere fact that we're having a conversation about a pedophile who has a 50-50 shot to be elected to the Senate means that we're entering the decadent Late Roman Empire stage of our decline and at this point we're just killing time until the Goths sack DC.

I think plenty of Alabamians have time to talk themselves into believing that a bland Democrat is actually worse than a kid-diddler, but I also think the Senate GOP is sincere about expelling him. So, I'd bet on #2 if forced to choose. #7 sounds pretty good too, honestly.
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63 thoughts on “GAME THEORIES”

  • js says:

    I'm not convinced that the Senate could expel Moore even if they tried. The only Senators who've ever been expelled have been so for treason. And while Moore loves the CSA, he's not an *actual* Confederate. But also: the Constitution gives the Senate the power to expel people for disorderly behavior. Could they do that for things that he didn't do as a Senator and that never led to criminal charges the or convictions? (What he did was criminal, but a formal expulsion for without charges or conviction is tough.)

    At the very least, Moore would have enough of a case to press this up to the Supreme Court, IMO. I suspect the SC would uphold Moore's victory. But who knows how much time that would take and what it would do to the Senate.

  • J. Dryden says:

    I dunno if I'd call #2 a huge win. Granted, the GOP keeps the seat, but shit, man, it's Ala-fuckin'-bama (thank you, Vincent Gambino); it was gonna be red no matter what. The fact that Moore is a nightmarish shitshow of "it's not technically pedophilia"-casuistry-inducing horrors DOES, admittedly, nudge the (D) candidate a LITTLE closer to the finish line, but come on. Alabama. It was going to stay in the GOP.

    So Moore wins, and the Senate votes to expel him–great, except Moore has tied himself pretty firmly to the Trumpian masses, the Bannonites who regard McConnell as their true enemy. (Well, I mean, after Hillary. Because, come on. Obviously.) Won't a vote to expel Moore split the party off from this frothing mass of primary voters–who won't be cowed, but will double down on nominating fucking lunatics, and NEXT time it'll be in a state a little closer to purple, leading the Democratic candidates to a likelier victory?

    I know, I know: it's 2017, and tribalism conquers all. But…I dunno. If Alabama elects Moore, and the GOP rejects him, that'll play well with some voters. But those voters WON'T be Republicans. THEY will be PISSED.

  • Emerson Dameron says:

    #3 with Sessions as the replacement. Gets Sessions out of the White House and the news cycle. Gives Bannon and AL Republicans someone they at least sort of like.

  • NickT says:

    I am going to be somewhat optimistic and say #1 wins out this time, if only because the GOP and Moore are so massively in the wrong place every which way over this unfolding disaster.

  • Jo says:

    Who gives a damn whether Jones loses in 2020!? A win now is a win now. Can you let a little smidge of light in to your doom and gloom FFS?

  • Ungrateful Negro says:

    I agree with J. Dryden. #2 ignores the fact that Alabama will have voted for Moore. If you think the left is pissed at its popular vote for Clinton being (effectively) invalidated by the Electoral College, what will the screaming hordes that comprise the Alabama GOP/Bannon/Moore think if McConnell, the face of the GOP Establishment, joins with the hated Democrats to expel the guy they voted for?
    God it would be delicious! I hope that Democrats would abstain, or allow just enough yes votes to get to 2/3 if and only if all GOP Senators vote to expel him. Make them own it.

  • Lars Macomb says:

    I'm with Jo.

    Perhaps Alabama experiences a couple of years of Jones and discovers the sky hasn't caved in. Maybe another Democrat can win. Then maybe a few more break in at the state level, as they have in Oklahoma. True, there are a lot of hard core evangelicals and less-literate folks in AL, but there are an increasing number of educated professionals. The norther half of the state is largely comprised of aerospace. There are more decent universities in AL than there are in, say West Virginia. African Americans are an important part of the Resistance. And they make up a chunk of the electorate. They just have not had a reason to vote in a while.

  • Talisker says:

    we're entering the decadent Late Roman Empire stage of our decline and at this point we're just killing time until the Goths sack DC

    I dunno, man, have you seen the modern Goths? The tribe has changed and they don't seem much interested in sacking cities, it would smudge their makeup. I'm not sure where the Huns have got to. The Canadians can have another try, but might be out of practice since it's been over 200 years since the last time they burned DC.

  • Dave Dell says:

    I'm with Jo and Lars. Having a Dem Senator for a few years in AL can only be a good thing. Maybe the horse will learn to sing.

  • democommie says:

    Take wins where they can be taken without resorting to being the same ratfuckingscumbagzfromhell that 99%* of the GOP's pols are today.

    * With a margin of error of -0%/+1%.

  • Safety Man! says:

    I took the time to look up a local Alabama editorial, and the author basically said, come on, the guy autographs bibles, it’s not like we’re surprised here. I don’t know if that’s true, but the yearbook sure as hell is.

    My money is on #7, after all, that’s what the litorial combat ships and Joint Struke Fighter are for.

  • Jono says:

    If Moore wins Alabama becomes a sanctuary state for pedophiles and they all move there. Alabama becomes well known for a different set of "family values".

  • Jestbill says:

    The evangelicals *are* the Goths/Huns and the only reason they haven't taken over is that plagues are now passe.

    Take the win, vaccinate your kids, register your neighbors to vote.

  • RosiesDad says:

    I read a book a couple of years ago entitled "Better Off Without 'Em: A Northerners Guide to Southern Secession." It is something we should seriously consider.

  • Scout says:

    #1 is a good outcome. Even if it only lasts until 2020.

    This whole shitshow proves why this flavor of "Christian" deserves the persecution they believe they suffer.

  • Coises says:

    6a. Moore wins; within two weeks, nobody cares. Outrage fatigue over sexual impropriety is building fast. As for, “The party holds the seat but exposes itself to an endless barrage”… they nominated and elected Donald fucking Trump. The GOP has already proven itself immune to both moral and intellectual challenge. No one who votes Republican cares.

  • old white person says:

    #7 is my favorite, with the states choosing allies to form their own countries. The West Coast Blue Wall is my pick, though we may have to eliminate eastern Oregon and eastern Washington from Cascadia.

  • Amy says:

    I hope that the Republic of New Califoregton doesn't close it's borders. I'll need a place to go when I'm expelled from the Kingdom of Hawaii in the Era of Little Presidents that is sure to follow the collapse.

  • mago says:

    Oh Huey Huey Huey, you poor dupe. . .
    Anyway, I'm with MK and the rest–I like the Cascadian tilt as well.
    But what I wanted to respond to was Ed's remark, "This is 2017 after all." I'm constantly trotting out that response to every new (and old) outrage and fuckery that comes along.

  • Karl Kolchak says:

    So, how is the Al Franken situation going to play out?

    Wait, did I let the cat out of the bag that they are all sociopathic scumbags regardless of party? So sorry.

  • Brian M says:

    Huey (and Mago);

    We don't need Russians to serve as Gothy sacking Barbarians. The barbarians who really sacked Washington are native English speakers.

  • Tim H. says:

    What I expect from the Al Franken thing is a new poster at evilgopbastards.com "Sexual Harassment, Only a Crime If You're a Democrat".

  • Emerson Dameron says:

    @Coises:

    The durability of Mark Sanford, David Vitter, and many others make me wonder if you're right.

    Moore may be praying that no one finds out about the boys.

  • quixote says:

    I would have gone out there and marched and done border sentry duty for Caloregton / Cascadia, but then I heard Putin is funding some of the California separatists.

    If he's for it, I'm against it. He doesn't wish anyone well. Not even the Russians.

    So now I'm not so sure. … But it would be sooo nice to cut off Jesusland and stop subsidizing their greedy paranoias.

  • Aurora S says:

    I’m willing to throw down some Ameros on this bowl of claim chowder:

    The GOP and its media enablers are going to Both Sides the shit out of the situation with Franken and Moore—thereby allowing Moore to skate on by without any sort of accountability. The Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver and Ol’ Turtleneck can breathe a sigh of relief that they don’t have to pretend to have a conscience about Moore, they can just deflect deflect deflect.

    The horde of craven miscreants in Alabama can vote for Moore in peace because Both Sides Do It, and Moore will win the seat.

    You heard it here first, ladies and gentlemen.

    (I suspect the Republicans in Congress won’t go for the jugular on Franken because they’re on thin ice, but Faux News will, which will metastasize and spread to the rest of the cable news media. Where it goes from there is TBD. Chaos is a ladder, my friends.)

  • Aurora S says:

    @Mark—

    If rules applied evenly to all parties, they’d have to then impeach Trump if they tried to remove Franken. Remember, though, that Moore is a child molester who serially preyed on teenage girls and got banned from a shopping mall for being a known creeper. Franken grabbed and kissed a grown woman during a rehearsal for a skit to which she did not consent, and took a juvenile picture of himself apparently grabbing her breasts while she was sleeping. These are definitely Not Good, but they’re not the same things.

  • NickT says:

    We should also remember that although Franken behaved poorly, he didn't actually attempt to rape anyone, nor did he threaten his victims with consequences because of the office he held if they spoke up.

    Worth bearing in mind that the parties are in different places on the sexual misconduct issue to some degree because the GOP are more of a white, male party, while the Democrats are more of a diverse, female party.

  • Katydid says:

    @Aurora S and NickT; I'm with you guys; Franken acted like a jerk *in front of an audience* to a fully-adult co-worker and didn't repeat it–so says the right-wing accuser herself. He was a former tv comedian at the time with no power over anyone. He wasn't in politics. And he actually gave a lucid apology, not just "sorry if you're so thin-skinned and can't take a joke that you took offense".

    On the other side, there's a long history of kiddy-molesters, and just recently, yet another "Family Valuezzzz" nut who was having gay sex in his office.

    But of course this is being pun as "both sides do it!" and all kinds of caterwauling about "How will we explain this to the children?!?!"

  • democommie says:

    @ Katydid:

    My comment between your two comments was meant for you.

    I took "is being pun as…" as all of us who put on our bad Russian speaking english diction! {;>)

  • Katydid says:

    LOL, Demo! You give me far too much credit. Hanging around the car repair shop and typing on my phone.

    Anyone catch the Twitler ranting about "Frankenstien"(sic)?!?

  • Ten Bears says:

    The grasslands and high deserts of Eastern Oregon and Washington are as integral a part of the Cascadian biosphere as the temperate rain forests if the coasts. So too the highlands of Northern Idaho and Western Montana. By definition – all rivers flow to the Pacific through Norte America's only temperate rainforest – Cascadia reaches to the Rocky Mountain, the continental, divide. Doesn't just stop at the Canadian "border" either, includes all of British Colombia and Southern and Coastal Alaska, as well as (arguably) parts of Alberta and the Yukon.

    There are maps up at my house.

  • MS says:

    Moore wins, takes his seat, and the GOP simply never brings up the subject again. It's a news story for about 15 minutes before Trump tweets about North Korea. Senator Moore dies in office 22 years from now. The End.

  • S.M. McBean says:

    Have to agree with MS. He'll win and be co-opted. Mitch will use investigation threats long as necessary, and Americans' memories are 5 min. long. Still gonna get fishnets just for fun.

  • Tim H. says:

    Given how understanding the "Fundagelicals" have become about the foibles of their favorite politicians, what's next? Foldouts in the Sunday school quarterlies? Slot machines? Perhaps something difficult to distinguish from Heinlein's fictitious Fosterite temple from "Stranger in a Strange Land?

  • mojrim says:

    A friend in alabama got a spam text from the Moore campaign to today.

    "Vote Moore on 12/12. You decide. Grass-root vs Swamp. They push Moore to drop out on false accusations but won't ask Al Franken resign on real sexual assaults."

    He's going to win. The Turtle will refer him to the ethics committee, which will find him despicable but the event outside their jurisdiction.

  • Katydid says:

    @mojrim; as always, the GOP is the party of projection. Remember when they tried to paint Moore as God himself for assaulting young teenage girls? I suppose Moore was banned from the mall and the YMCA in the 1970s and 1980s because Democrats. Thanks, Obama!

    BTW, more pictures have come out from that USO trip, including one showing Tweedum touching the butt of one of the male musicians, among other things.

  • Mark says:

    @ Aurora S – Someone alledged that he was banned form a mall, there is no real proof. Thos interviewed say that they believe that he was banned but they do not know. I am certainly not defending him, but these are allegations, but there is probably some truth to them. The Al Franken thing consists of a picture and his own admission and apology.

  • Katydid says:

    @Demo; NINE victims and counting, and he was banned from the local mall *and* the YMCA. When you're too creepy in ALABAMA to be allowed around children, that's saying something.

  • democommie says:

    @ Katydid

    Can't tell the players without a bunch of investigative reportage.

    So, NINE? SFJEEZUS, and those are only the ones that are still alive and not too fearful to speak up.

    Yeah, the mall banning is the rotting olive in the toxiKKK KKKristian KKKocKKKtail of hypocisy that the Moore'sthepity supporters have been swilling.

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