The travel/adventure writer Robert Young Pelton is not the first person that would come to most minds when asked to name an expert on global politics and international affairs. He is an entertaining writer with a large supply of war correspondent / stringer / freelance journalist "So there I was, in the middle of the chaos" anecdotes. His books are readable and fun, occasionally informative. That said, he really deserves some credit for writing as early as the mid to late 1990s that the South China Sea was going to be a key axis of international conflict in the early 21st Century. Seriously. This guy was writing about the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, and Scarborough Shoal back when the rest of the world was still in the mindset of the Cold War or sagely explaining that India and Pakistan seem not to like one another very much. Pelton has made me sound prescient more than once for being able to cite the conflict over rock and coral clumps in the South China Sea long before the international press started bandying about terms like "Great Wall of Sand" and The Nine-Dash Line over the past year or two. Simon Winchester was also ahead of the game on this one, as were (I'm sure) many Asian experts whose writing is not widely available in this hemisphere. Searching "South China Sea" on Amazon shows a dozen nonfiction books on the topic written in 2014, 2015 or 2016. It's pretty impressive that some people were 20 years ahead of the game on it.
The Japan Times has a good Scarborough Shoal piece today, and other than to give Pelton some props I don't think I can explain the conflict any better than I could inform you by sharing some useful writing on the subject. Long story short: China and a number of others in the region – Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and others – assert historical ownership of a number of tiny, uninhabited rocks that were of no interest to anyone until modern times. They contain no resources, which one might expect, but they are outposts for establishing Exclusive Economic Zones and national-military sovereignty in an economically and strategically vital area of the world. China's approach has been one of extreme belligerence, building artificial islands (hence "Great Wall of Sand", referring to landfill) around rocks barely big enough to stand upon and staging military personnel and equipment there. Shipping lanes, fishing areas, potential undersea oil resources, and the patrol lanes of international navies (particularly the US Navy) are all affected by the outcome of this strategic land-grab.
One interesting thing I can add is that all of this has been made possible in part by a volcano. True story. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991 in the Philippines – the largest eruption of the 20th Century, incidentally, which not many non-Asians realize – the US closed Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base. Both were heavily damaged and in the post-Cold War mindset of the 90s, once evacuated the decision was made not to return to either. The US withdrawal from the region left a power vacuum that the Chinese armed forces were more than eager to fill. In March of 2016 the Philippine government cordially invited the US military to place personnel and equipment at 5 bases in the region, a result of Obama's "Asian Pivot" strategy.
Thanks for helping me sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes, RYP.
Sarah says:
Ed, leave it to you to make ne realize I know absolutely nothing. Keep being you.
Sarah says:
*Me. Christ you can't edit this shit?!
Brian M says:
fascinating.
Of course, now that the Philippines has elected a murderous analog to Trump, I am guessing bilateral relationships may be a bit strained. Until Trump is elected, of course. Then they can be co-belligerents!
Land_Planarian says:
More charmingly, Japan has been funding coral reef preservation studies for years in an attempt to keep some of the farther-flung tiny Japanese islands above water.
Beppo says:
My dad did two deployments at Clark Air Base sandwiched around a tour at Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam. He didn't live long enough to see the Pivot to Asia, which is too bad, because he would have likely noted that it's also a sex position.
Katydid says:
I lived in the PI in the 1970s as a Navy brat and again in 1990 when i was on active duty. There are several reasons the US pulled out of the PI, and not all about the Cold War. The Spanish called the PI the "Isla de Ladrones" (island of thieves) and both times I lived there, I saw that Americans were captive prey for the PI'ers to line their pockets. We had a saying–"The Olongapo Bridge is magic–if you're wearing a watch when you start on on it, it will be gone by the time you arrive at the other end". The military warned us to bring nothing there that we ever wanted to see again–televisions, toasters, small change–one of their strategies was to marry off the young women to military servicemen and then they'd invite their family members to live on the base with them and routinely break into houses/barracks. The servicemen's kids going to DoD schools were routinely bullied and robbed by the PI kids whose mothers married servicemen. Shopping at the comissary and BX was a nightmare because as soon as a shipment came in, it would be picked clean.
Additionally, it was abundantly clear how much the PI'es hated the military servicemembers. We were a source of consumer goods, money, and getting to America for them (typical strategy–serviceman brings the wife CONUS, the wife would be "lonely" and need her sisters and brothers and mamasan and papasan and granny to come live in the USA, then once everyone got their green cards, the marriage was over). As a matter of fact, the PI gov't was in the midst of trying to shake down Uncle Sam for even more rent on the bases when Uncle Sam said, "You know what? Forget it" and pulled their people and equipment out. Immediately the tone changed to "come back! We miss (your money)!"
Katydid says:
Sorry–hit *send* before I added my conclusion–the current PI President *is* much like Trump in the sense that he, too, openly says what the base is thinking. And good for President Obama for slapping him down like the thug he is.
Major Kong says:
I can recall the Spratley Islands being used a "flash point" for Asia scenarios back in the mid-to-late 1990s when I was in the military.
The "pivot to Asia" was already gearing up as far back as 2004. I did a deployment to Guam in the summer of 2004 as part of a "show of force" in the Pacific. There was a lot of money being put into Anderson AFB even back then.
gromet says:
In 2004 I was talking with a girl online. We hadn't met yet, and I wanted to — so she said, "Okay, go to the Borders on 3rd tonight and find Robert Young Pelton." I figured that was a friend of hers who worked there who was going to make sure I wasn't a serial killer before she revealed herself.
But an employee told me they had no Robert Pelton on staff. Confused, I messaged her asking if I was at the wrong store. She wrote back "He's up in Travel." I went up, milled around, waiting to be approached… only after 5 minutes did it occur to me he was a writer. I looked through his books, which all seemed amazing — and there was a note to me wedged inside one of them, initiating a goose chase.
I've never been as crazy about a girl as I ended up being about that one, and a small part of it was that she introduced me to RYP.
Robert Walker-Smith says:
The relationship between the USA and the Philippines is long and fraught. I cannot blame the Filipinos for dipping their buckets in the river of money flowing through, but not to, their country.
There's an old saying that war is how God teaches Americans geography. Maybe my grandchildren will know exactly where the South China Sea is in much the same way my grandparents knew where Havana was.*
*Full disclosure: my grandfather was Navy in the Spanish American War, one of my granduncles was Army in WWI, my father was Army in WWII, and a brother was career Air Force post-Vietnam. I know a LOT of geography.
Katydid says:
@Robert; quite a lot of American money flowed through the PI. Not only the base leases, but also all the jobs on the bases that went to the Filipino people. Then there's the American dollars spent in the local restaurants, stores, bars, etc. etc. Despite that, they made it very clear that we were there for them to rob blind. Their contempt was palpable.
schmitt trigger says:
In a former job, the plant manager was an ex-US serviceman which had married a Philipino woman.
What Katydid mentions is very true: very soon she was bringing relatives to the US and showing photos of their nieces to all unmarried men.
April says:
The list of things we can't talk about here gets longer and longer…first it was the three T's (Tiananman, Tibet and Taiwan), then they added an R (religion) and now it's the I's (islands.) A couple of years ago I had a really great class who, in spite of the brilliant teaching they were getting (joke), would occasionally lose focus. I would then say "You know, I really think those islands belong to Japan." Annnd we were then back on track.
The thing about the Chinese is that they are trained from birth to blindly accept whatever someone in authority tells them. (There are exceptions, of course. This is in general.) This goes for everything, not just government officials. I have a million examples but here's just one…my scooter kept shutting off. The repair guy my assistant took it to said I needed new batteries. I've been driving for 50 years; I know how it is when a battery is dying and that wasn't the problem. My assistant assured me that since HE was the repairman, he knew what was wrong. I found my own guy who correctly found the actual problem – the cable was disconnecting. That was two years ago and the scooter's batteries are still working fine. The point of that was, with regards to these islands, most Chinese people don't even understand (never mind consider) why the whole world doesn't just give China the whole China sea like it wants. I couldn't have a discussion about it even if I wanted to because to them there is simply nothing to discuss.
@Robert WS – On the 50th anniversary of Pearl Harbor I was talking to my dad. He told me when they heard PH had been bombed all everyone could say was "Where the fuck is Pearl Harbor?"
mago says:
Japan's the pivot.
The Dark Avenger says:
Gee brown people contemptuous about Americans! Goodness gracious!
Davis X. Machina says:
How could a US withdrawal from the Philippines be bad?
Surely each incremental reduction in the octopus reach of US imperialism is a stepping stone to a more peaceful world.
jamason says:
my question is,does china have a legimate sphere of influence? would we welcome chinese gun boats in the florida straits or the sea of cortez?
Emerson Dameron says:
@Davis:
Not sure if I missed the sarcasm light. Although I take some comfort in the decline of US imperialism, it's pretty likely to make way for other kinds of imperialism without some major cracks in the capitalist worldview.
Katydid says:
@Davis; well, the Americans leaving the PI in the 1990s plunged the economy into abject poverty, since they no longer had us to steal from or hand them over money by the wheelbarrowful.
The Dark Avenger says:
My wife is from the Philippines, so I'll ask her tonight if that's true or just more American bullshit.
And yah know, that's about how every occupier group has been treated by the people they occupied.
Katydid says:
Sure, Dark Avenger. I won't believe my own lived experiences, instead I should believe whatever story some internet stranger says. @@
While you at it, ask her about the car-crash scam; in the early 1970s, a woman travelling off-base by car could expect to have small children dart into her path from behind trees and bushes. If she hit the child, the locals would sue Uncle Sam. If she missed the child but got into a car wreck, the car would be rushed and her purse would be stolen. It was such a problem that the commander, Subic Bay insisted that women not drive by themselves, and avoid travelling off the base altogether.
I've lived in some pretty economically-distressed places; the Azores, Guam, Hawaii. None of these places was the culture of theivery so entrenched.
The Pale Scot says:
"As a matter of fact, the PI gov't was in the midst of trying to shake down Uncle Sam for even more rent on the bases when Uncle Sam said, "You know what? Forget it" and pulled their people and equipment out."
I chuckled at that. The Pl gov. was playing hardball and then the volcano erupted. The gov. wanted the USN to leave a portable dry dock. They rolled up the entire base and shipped it home.
At Subic the commander recounts watching the eruption with a group of scientists.
"All of a sudden the Hungarians packed up and left without saying a word, I knew it was time to leave.
Tsotate says:
@Katydid,
Goodness! Wanting their relatives to live in the same country they do? Those wives are clearly awful, awful people.
Katydid says:
@Tsotate; you miss the bigger point. There was a whole cottage industry of marrying off the young women as a free ticket to US citizenship for the rest of the family. See Schmitt Trigger's comment. It's actually a pretty well-known scam, and something many of the other military wives didn't seem to feel the need for; the Vietnamese-born wives, the UK-born wives, the Japanese-born wives, etc. etc. etc. Somehow these women managed to marry servicemen and *not* import their entire extended family to the USA.
The Dark Avenger says:
I believe your lived experience, hell, when I was visiting in the Philippines there were a few places my family went where my white skin meant getting out of our vehicle might've risked me getting kidnapped because of my pale white completion.
It's a tough and sometimes violent place, but nevertheless, I'm truly sorry they didn't kiss your ass for you enough while you where there.
Katydid says:
@Dark Avenger: Kiss my ass?! Are you effing serious? I would have been happy if they didn't *literally break down my door in base housing* several times a year looking for stuff to steal (and my neighbors' doors, too–it wasn't personal, they were just greedy). I would have been thrilled if they didn't throw a temper tantrum upon finding nothing worth stealing and further vandalize my house every #$%$% time they broke in. I would have been ecstatic if the parents didn't teach their children to terrorize, bully, harass and assault the military children. but gosh, please explain more to me how super-duper swell it was to be stationed in the PI!
I've been stationed in some poverty-endemic places, as noted above, but never-not-once outside of the PI did I encounter the complete culture of graft, theft, and violence like the one in the PI. It was no shocker to me when Imelda Marcos's designer shoe fetish was revealed, and further "breaking news" of utter corruption–they steal from each other, they steal from Americans, they steal from everyone. They steal.
The Dark Avenger says:
Never said it was super duper over there, moron, just that it can be a tough and violet place for anyone. Did you miss the part about me hiding because my wife was afraid I'd be kidnapped?
You got to come here back to the State and they're stuck with their lousy lives. I don't feel any pity for you. What good were you doing there, keeping the New People's Army at bay from the civilian population?
Katydid says:
@Avenger, I get it. You didn't feel safe, but you're going to 'splain to me how my experiences not being safe, and the experiences of others who have encountered the predator mindset "baked in", were wrong because waaaaah, how dare people object to being preyed upon.
BTW, the namecalling just adds to your charm and highlights the fact you don't have a leg to stand on. I'm sorry you're so bitter and defensive. Maybe it will soothe your mind to know that my and my fellow active-duty servicemembers supplied generations of PI'ers with stealable possessions, "free" commissary and BX inventory, and targets for bullying. I'm not at all sad that Uncle Sam refused to be victimized anymore and pulled out, though I did think it was hilarious that the same people who would knife you for your wallet and spit on your injured body were wailing their grief at losing their targets.
Katydid says:
Yup, another fine example of the PI "gimme gimme gimme" mentality, their viewing of Uncle Sam as a sugar-daddy, and how their openly-voiced disdain has finally bitten them world-wide. Courtesy of the Independent:
Losses in Philippine stocks are accelerating as foreigners keep pulling money from Asia’s most expensive market, amid speculation that the outbursts of President Rodrigo Duterte are hurting investor sentiment.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 1.3 per cent to 7,619.10 in its biggest decline in five weeks. The gauge has dropped 6 per cent from a 15-month high on 21 July, paring its gain this year to 9.6 per cent.
Foreign funds pulled $58m (£43m) from local equities on Wednesday, the most in almost a year, and have sold a net $333m in an 11-day run of outflows. The index is down 2.3 per cent this quarter, the only decliner among major Asian markets.
Duterte’s threat to call US President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” if he criticised an anti-drug campaign that’s left around 2,400 dead, and the subsequent cancellation of a meeting between the leaders, “didn’t sit well” with overseas investors, said Rafael Palma Gil, a portfolio manager at Rizal Commercial Banking Group in Manila.
That's right asshole.
If you insult our president there are repercussions.
Apparently Obama and Duterte did finally meet during yesterday during the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit:
According to a White House official, Mr Obama had a brief discussion with Mr Duterte before the Asean Gala Dinner in the leaders’ holding space. He said the exchange consisted of pleasantries between the two. However, the two leaders entered the dinner venue separately, were seated far apart and did not interact with each other during the meal that lasted an hour and 20 minutes.
The incident has soured relations between the two nations, at a time when their strong partnership is critical for regional stability. The Philippine government is concerned about Chinese activity in the South China Sea and, in the same week as the diplomatic row, released intelligence photos purporting to show Chinese coast guard vessels in the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Yep, that is one smart president the Philippine people have there.
Robert Walker-Smith says:
This reminds me of a cynical observation from years ago –
"The USA is sometimes criticized for acting as the global policeman, but when someone is breaking in at 3:00 p.m., are you going to call the Belgians?"
When the USA puts a huge military base in a developing country*, it represents a river of money flowing through a parched landscape. There will inevitably be locals down on the banks with buckets. Running a local business that caters to free spending servicemen, marrying them, robbing them, it's all good.
In some countries, the river of money is tourism. As far as I know, the USA is the only nation with multiple military bases on multiple continents; some countries only have bases on their own territories, if you can imagine. I sympathize with the poverty-stricken people who exploit that resource, but I can understand that being routinely exploited gets old fast.
*I include Philippines in this category.
The Dark Avenger says:
Oh the gangster looks so fright'ning
With his luger in his hand
When he gets home to his children
He's a family man
But when it comes to the nitty-gritty
He can shove in his knife
Yes he really looks quite religious
He's been an outlaw all his life
Katydid says:
@Robert Walker-Smith: Indeed. Japan in the 1960s was a very poor country. The locals got their share of the buckets of money by providing goods and services to the servicemen and their families. Since the schools were so good, many military dependents went to Japanese schools (I started school in Japan), which meant a fortune spent in the local stores on the right clothes, school supplies, etc. The kids weren't brutalized by their Japanese fellow students. We took a lot of time to visit the country because we could–even if my father was on duty, my mother felt perfectly safe taking us on the train for day excursions. My mother also took cooking lessons from a woman who would come to the house and show you how to make a meal…and not leave the house lumpier than when she showed up.
The Azores, another poverty-stricken place, was similar. While you wouldn't leave your wallet or purse just sitting out on a public bench, you knew you could go to the local shops and return unmolested. Guam was the same. That tiny little island was almost completely dependent on Uncle Sam for money and amenities, but they figured out how not to kill the goose so the golden eggs would keep coming.
My kids started school in Puerto Rico–another poverty-stricken area where being on good terms with your neighbors mind mean hiring a local family to raise some chickens for you on their property…and conveniently forgetting to collect the eggs from them. But you didn't return to your home weekly to find the door kicked down and the plastic dishes burned in the oven in a fit of pique that you didn't have better things to steal.
The Dark Avenger says:
I'll just leave you to your pity party, insect.
Sookabilly says:
I did my MA thesis (in 1984) on the politics of China's offshore oil development. It was obvious even then (if you cared to look) that the islands, shoals, reefs and sandbars of the South and East China seas would be hotly contested between China and the other littoral nations.
My thesis advisors, educated when courses like "Maoism is a Positive Model for Development" were common, refused to believe that China would be belligerent; of course, China would follow it's "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence."
The only way these two dinosaurs would accept my thesis is if I changed all my conclusions 180 degrees. Sick of the whole academic bullshit and with a ticket to Taiwan in my pocket, I plugged my nose and did what they asked.
I wasn't then nor am I now "anti-China," I'm just realistic instead of romantic about the Chinese. People surprised at China's map showing that "their" ocean continues south to almost within sight of Brunei are like my old profs, guided by the thought that China is somehow different, and better.
How different the world would be if world leaders replaced romance (what should be) with reality (what is).