The over-the-top sycophancy with which ESPN covered Derek Jeter's quest for 3000 hits almost irritated baseball fans enough (check out Jeter Filter, the Chrome app that removes Derek Jeter from your internet) to obscure what a remarkable feat #2 accomplished. While in practical terms the milestone represents an arbitrary act repeated an arbitrary number of times, from a baseball perspective the 3K Hit Club is among the more difficult to join. It almost inevitably requires a player to break into the majors full-time at an early age (preferably no later than 23), play more than 18 seasons without losing any significant time to injury, and remain productive into ages (40+) at which most men injure themselves getting out of bed.
Put it this way: 200 hits is considered a remarkable season, a feat managed by only a handful of players annually. If a player played 15 seasons, say from ages 23 to 38, he would need to average 200 hits per season to total 3000. For reference, only two players (Ichiro and Pete Rose) have ever gotten 200 hits ten times in a career. So yes, we saw something rare when Jeter crossed 3000.**
The question is, when might we see it again? A brief overview of the active leaderboard suggests that we may be waiting for some time. Some players who appear close have reached the dead end of their careers, while the number of promising young players is small.
Before we take a look, I consider 2000 hits by age 35 to be a useful cutoff point. If a player has not reached that, his odds of reaching 3000 are essentially nil unless he A) can rack up an improbable 200 hits per year from 36-40 or B) plays productively to 42-45. It's not impossible, but the odds are very long.
The closest active players are Ivan Rodriguez (2842, Age 39) and Omar Vizquel (2835, 44). I-Rod has tried valiantly to be the first catcher to join the club, but he is now hitting a feeble .210 in part-time duty with the Nationals. His next stop is the glue factory. Vizquel is already well beyond a reasonable playing age and is riding the bench for the White Sox. He has 36 hits this season, so he would probably need to play four more years, i.e. to 48 or 49, at his current rate to reach 3000. Nope.
The next two players are more likely, Alex Rodriguez (2762, 35) and Johnny Damon (2678, 37). A-Rod's challenge is to stay healthy at this point. He's declining but still productive. 250 hits in 3 or 4 more seasons should be a snap, but he's also regularly missing months at a time with various ailments. Odds of success: 80%. Damon, conversely, is healthy but no longer the player he once was. He has averaged over 150 hits annually since 2006, so his challenge will be to find a team that will let him play full time for two more seasons – while hitting about .270 without power, defense, or speed. His odds are about 50/50.
Vladimir Guerrero (2526, 36) seemed like a good candidate for most of his career, but he is the kind of player who ages terribly. And he has. With his body falling apart and his swing-at-everything approach suffering at the hands of Father Time, I don't see a team offering him full-time DH duty for 3 or 4 more seasons while OPSing .720. 20% chance. Chipper Jones (2567, 39) has better odds of impregnating another Hooter's waitress.
No other active players have 2500 hits. In the 2000-2500 club, most contenders are too old and/or clearly shot. Miguel Tejada (2357, 37) is embarrassing himself at this point, OPSing .600 as a utility man. Bobby Abreu (2353, 37) and Todd Helton (2338, 37) are still decent hitters but too far away for their age. Magglio Ordonez (2127, 37) is broken down and even farther away. Jim Thome (2255, 40) is on his last legs. Edgar Renteria (2297, 34) started strong, playing full time at age 20 and reaching 2000 hits before 30, but just fell apart when he turned 30. No way. Carlos Lee, Orlando Cabrera, and Scott Rolen (all < 2100 and Age 36) are all in serious decline; only Lee is a full time player anymore. So if A-Rod and Damon fail, who will be next? The odds are in favor of the youngest members of the 2000 hit club: Albert Pujols (2005, 31) and Adrian Beltre (1996, 32). Pujols seems like a lock, but we will need to see where he is in 3-4 years to get a better idea of how his production changes as age takes hold. 80% chance. Beltre is in the Guerrero class – swings at everything, never takes a walk, and won't age well. I'd put his odds lower, around 20%. Juan Pierre (1959, 33) seemed like a good bet throughout his 20s (four 200 hit seasons!) but now is such a liability in the field and at the plate that he won't be a full time player for much longer.
Of players still in their twenties, the current hit leaders are: Carl Crawford (1559, 29), Miguel Cabrera (1521, 28), Jose Reyes (1261, 28), David Wright (1202, 28), and Robinson Cano (1201, 28). Crawford is on a good pace, but is he having a fluke bad year or is 2011 a sign of bad things to come? Of this group, who are all too far away to project, the best odds would seem to belong to Crawford and Cano, who is entering his prime and shows durability. Cabrera may make it if alcohol and weight don't do a number on his body.
The short answer, then, appears to be that if A-Rod or Damon do not make it in the next 2 or 3 seasons, we will probably be waiting a decade or more to see another player reach 3000 hits. That Jeter fellow may be overrated and overexposed (not to mention the worst defensive player in baseball) but what he has accomplished at the plate is indeed historic.
**The same could be said for Craig Biggio, but I don't recall ESPN caring much about that one.
Peter Hornby says:
Seems to me that Ichiro has a better shot than most of the guys in the 2000-2500 club. He should be over 2400 by season's end, and with three more years before he turns 40, he has a chance. I guess it depends on whether this year's downturn is a sign of age or a sign that he's finally getting pissed off with the Mariners.
The Everlasting Dave says:
Great post, except for the part where you reminded me that Juan Pierre exists. It still seems unbelievable to me that Pudge isn't going to make it to 3,000. He makes the HOF regardless, but if he'd been DHing instead of wrecking his knees for the past 5 years it's scary to think of the counting stats he could have put together.
Peter- There aren't a lot of players in history with Ichiro's skill set, so it's tough to guess how he'll age. I think if it matters to him, he'll stick around long enough to get there.
negative 1 says:
Yeah, but Craig Biggio only had a .768 score in "intangibles" and a 3.4 "grit" score. Plus, Jeter's nickname is "the captain". See? That's why Jeter is better. It's totally not because ESPN fluffs the Yankees.
c u n d gulag says:
Ah, I see that Lawyers Guns & Money isn't the only site with a "He Man Jeter Hater's Club." :-)
As a Yankee fan, I'll be eternally grateful that the Astro's didn't draft him. Like him or hate him, you've got to admit that he has been an excellent and consistent player – you don't get to 3,000 withoug being both. But the real story behind the lastest Yankee Dynasty is Mariano Rivera. The wouldn't have won 5 World Series in the last 15 years without "The Hammer of God."
As for who might make the 3,000 hit club?
I think A-Rod will make it. He still has something like 6 more seaons on his contract. And at the money they're paying him, unless the Yankees can find a way to void it, he'll come to bat with a walker and "run" the bases in a Hoveround if he has to to take every penny. Unless, that is, he does something remarkably stupid – which is entirely possible. He ain't that bright.
I don't think Damian will make it – for the reasons you sighted.
Ichiro's got a shot. You don't know with him, though. He's been a remarkable player. Ten consecutive seasons with 200 hits! WOW!!!
But his hitting game is pretty much his legs – he's a single hitter who doesn't walk much, or hit HR's (not too many doubles either, or triples, for someone with his kind of speed). On defense, with his speed and arm, he's been an amazing RFer. But if his speed declines, and he'll be 38 nest season, there'll be little reason to keep him around long enough to get the last 600 plus hits he'll need after this season. Take a look at this season. He's had quite a drop off. He's hitting .268 with a .310 OBP. Jeter's got a higher BA, his OBP is 30 points higher, he's got more HR's, his OPS is almost 90 points higher – and he's played in 23 less games.
Having said that, I wouldn't bet against Ichiro.
After this group, I'm also at a loss. Most of the other are too old, too injury prone, or
unlikely to generate much interest as they age. After all, the era of the great and still improving 36 year-old died when players were forced to tinkle into cups – other than the one covering their family jewels, I mean.
Reyes game is all legs. And Cano, great as he is, underachieves – if he played the game like Jeter, he might get to 3,000 and be a 1st ballot HOFer. He still might be a HOFer, but he'll really have to keep his focus. It's hard to see either one of them making them making another 1700+ hits before Father Time catches up with them.
I wish I could think of some young player who might make it, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. If I do, I'll pop in later.
And thanks, Ed, for this conversation. All politica, all of the time, leads to a straight jacket.
Ok, everyone can now reconvene "The He Man Jeter Hater's Club."
Fossella says:
Your rating for Pujols only holds up if he's really 31. There's a lot of speculation that he's more like 36.
c u n d gulag says:
Ok, look at the numbers again, and tell me how Biggio, who was an excellent player, is that much better than Jeter? He's a very worthy HOFer, but how is he a lot better all around?
I'll give you defense. But even Bill James will tell you that his defensive superiority won't make up for what Jeter brings offensively – especially as a SS. Plus, Biggio was a CFer for a good chunk of his career.
I'll grant you that playing in the Astrodome for a good chunk of his career hurt him offensively. But being a right handed hitter in Yankee Stadium isn't exactly and offensive booster either. Just ask DiMaggio, Winfield, and other great Yankee rightie hitters.
If you look at the numbers, they are comparable players – at least I think they are, looking at BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and WAR – and Jeter may be better. Then look at the post-season numbers. Biggio had 40 games, which is a fair sample. Jeter's been in 100 more. All played in the greatest pressure cooker in baseball. And you see you really can't compare the two in that category.
Sorry, and I'll admit I'm prejudiced, but I'd take Jeter over Biggio. I'll take a career SS like Jeter over a combination Catcher, 2nd baseman, and Outfielder.
I await the responses.
robo says:
"Chipper Jones (2567, 39) has better odds of impregnating another Hooter's waitress."
Oh, I am slain!
c u n d gulag says:
robo,
He'd better hurry and get them while he can. When his career's over, he may end up trolling Waffle Houses for waitresses – it's the only 'restaurant' in America where a single fork has more tines than all of the waitresses combined have teeth.
I'm kidding – he'll be rich enough to get who or whatever he wants.
Vinny says:
Love Biggio. He's hands down better than Jeter in the HBP category. That's gotta count for something. I once saw him get hit by a pitch on the forearm, and he had no visible reaction. He just jogged to first, and the camera zoomed in on the forearm, and you could see the knot on his arm growing by the second. Jeter would have been crying.
johnsmith1882 says:
http://www.hijackedsignal.com/?p=584
Not a fan of Jeter. 3000 hits is an accomplishment, for sure, but he still is a dickhead. Wrote about his treatment of the fan that caught the ball, tying it to everything that is wrong in America, on my blog. Check it out, if you please, it's the last few paragraphs of the post if you want to skip the rest.
bensbias says:
@Vinny: Jeter wouldn't be crying, he'd be pretending he got hit on the elbow when he wasn't hit at all
Arod is very likely going to do it – he cares about milestones and although he's been dinged up the last few years, he takes good care of himself and has 16 years left and $490 Million coming his way, give or take a few $$.
Damon hasn't been a good fielder for a few years now, and teams are starting to realize it. It will be hard for him to find enough ABs as a light hitting LF/DH. However, I hope he does it, if for nothing else than creating a(nother) interesting Murray Chass v. Sabermetrics HoF debate.
With 3,000 hits and 300 wins, it really comes down to how people age in their late 30s, not necessarily who is on pace for x number of hits at age 27. Nobody can project to realistically get 150 hits from age 37-40, but someone inevitably will. As for 300 wins, a guy like Roy Halladay is way behind the pace, but he also seems like someone who can be this good, or 75% of himself until he's 43 years old, and that's how you generally obtain these milestones
Vinny says:
@bensbias
Yessssss, how could I forget about Jeter's Oscar moment. Good call.
BillCinSD says:
c u n d you should have looked at some of those numbers more closely. Biggio only played 255 games in center in his career, it was his main position one year. Biggio had more years as a starting catcher (3) than in the outfield (2).
If you go by seasonal WAR or OPS+, of the 10 best season between them Biggio has 6, but Jeter has more years of positive WAR and a better career OPS+, so there really isn't a huge difference between them, except in media fluffery
BillCinSD says:
Also Bill James' favorite toy is usefu for estimates of this sort
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames
I get ARod with a 97% chance, basically if he doesn't have a career ending injury in the next year or so he's in
Ichiro comes out at 36%, he's 37 and needs 3 years at his established hit level
Miguel Cabrera come out at 38% chance, he needs another 10 good years, though
Roy Halladay comes in at 16%. He needs 6 years at 20 wins a year to get there and he is 34
Pujols comes in at 53%, he needs 5.5 years at his current rate, he needs about 7 years at 150 hits per year. Given his power that seems pretty doable barring major injury
Damon comes in at 74%. He needs 2 more years at his current pace
c u n d gulag says:
BillCinSD,
Thanks for clarifying that.
I saw the defensive stats and thought Biggio played more games in than that in the Of – but I guess he just might have been there at the tail end of games.
BobS says:
Damon never was that good of a fielder. He has one of the worst throwing arms I've ever seen on a major league outfielder. While he was a good leadoff hitter on some championship caliber teams, a mediocre player like him joining the 3000 hit club diminishes the accomplishment.
Yes, Jeter was a career shortstop, but he hurt the Yankees by staying at the position as long as he has. A-Rod was a much better shortstop, and if Jeter had been a better leader and teammate, he would have moved over to third- the Yankees would have been a better team for it. For the past few seasons, he's essentially a pylon at the position.
It not exactly a slam on Biggio that he caught for 3 seasons (a tougher position than shortstop), and played most of the rest of his career at second base, probably the hardest position to play after catcher and shortstop.
lfv says:
Johnny Damon has clearly not been a mediocre player, just as he is not a HOF player.
Comrade PhysioProf says:
A-Rod has a much better than 80% chance of making it.
buckyblue says:
Damon played left when the Rays came to Miller Park during inter-league. I thought Soreano was bad, Brewers ran on his arm non-stop. Rays still beat them two outta three; no small feat this year. I'm wondering how much the drug testing now plays into this. As someone said, it depends on how you perform between 35-40. Drugs used to make that much less of a drop-off; not any more.
BobS says:
lvf, I thought about that after I wrote it and was away from the computer. Damon is one of the best lead-off hitters of the last couple decades and clearly not mediocre relative to all the players who pass through MLB (although as an outfielder he is below average).
When I wrote mediocre I meant (at least to myself) in the context of 3000 hits being a ticket to the Hall of Fame, where he does not belong in the company of the greats of the game.
lfv says:
Bob, Joe Posnanski recently wrote about this VERY topic briefly (wrt Palmeiro) in an article about the HOF more generally: http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/07/23/the-future-of-the-hall-of-fame/#more-7782
David says:
The comments above aren't mistaken, exactly, but three things seem really obvious to me:
1) Johnny Damon has been really, really good at remaining healthy (140+ games) and effective (OPS+ above 100 twice as often as below) the last fifteen seasons of his career, averaging 183 hits per 162 games;
2) If Damon stays healthy and effective through the end of this year and two more, when he will be 39, he's exceedingly likely to collect the 320 more hits he needs to notch 3,000; and
3) If Damon collects his 3,000th hit, the debate over his Hall case will be academic. He will be a first-balloter unless seven other certifiable cases hit the ballot his first year.
The connection between (1) and (2) is pretty tenuous. A lot of guys fall off from their career levels, and age 37 is a good time to do it. But the connection between (2) and (3)—don't kid yourself. Anyone who hits 3,000, the voters will carry in on their own shoulders.
David says:
Sorry, to clarify my last, somewhat obscure comment: The commenters above aren't mistaken _about Damon_, exactly, but don't kid yourself: He's going to get 3,000 hits (probably), and he's going to get into the Hall of Fame.
A-Rod, too. He's too close to the 3,000 mark, he's still got five and a half years on his contract, and not even the Yankees pay someone $30 million not to be in the starting lineup. He'll miss some time to injuries, sure, but there's no way he misses enough not to make it to 3,000.
bensbias says:
@David
I don't see Damon as a slam dunk Hall of Famer with 3,000 hits, in the voters minds. While the voters love arbitrary milestones, I think their trump card is always "does he feel like a hall of famer" and Damon won't win them over there.
Ed says:
After letting in Tony Perez, Jim Rice, and Andre Dawson (basically for no reason other than Joe Morgan/Red Sox Nation/Cubs Fans whining them into Cooperstown) I hardly see how they can throw down the "Doesn't feel like HOF material" argument on Damon.
Seriously, look at Tony Perez's career numbers. Look at them. Hell, if that's where the bar is set then Tino Martinez should be in.
lfv says:
Can we all at least agree that if Damon had not played for the sawx or yanks this wouldnt even be a discussion?
David says:
Joe Posnanski sometime last year noted that Damon stands a pretty good chance of notching the following career line: 3,000 hits, 500 doubles, 100 triples, 250 homers, 400 steals. (He's there in 2B and 3B already, needs 315 hits, 25 homers, 4 steals for the rest. Which is to say: Johnny Damon just needs some team to play him every day for two years, and he'll get there. And presumably there exists a team) While Bill James memorably catalogued all the stupid possible sentences of the form, "With the exception of Player X, every player who did A, B, and C is in the Hall of Fame," it's perhaps of interest to note that Damon would be alone in that club. (It goes without saying that James's Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? is the greatest single thing ever written on any topic, and I recommend it highly.)
I'm certainly not saying that Damon deserves the Hall of Fame. But I don't think there's a realistic scenario that after years of lazy, slow-news-day baseball columns pointing out the counting stats he's compiled, the voters don't finally relent. (Sorry for the double- or triple-negative there.) The standard for automatic entry isn't even as high as 3,000 hits, nowadays; pretty much everyone with 2,750 hits is in the Hall, and the exceptions are ineligible (Rose, Jeter etc.) or from the 19th century. Same with 1,500 runs scored or driven in, although the lower limit is being tested by Kent, McGriff, Lofton. (For some reason doubles and triples don't observe round numbers the same way, but one sees a similar cutoff at 140 triples and 540 doubles. Home runs used to behave at 450 but that's going to be seriously rethought in the post-steroid era.) And some stat people will note that his 50+ WAR is more than an awful lot of HOFers. I more than agree that you can quibble about whether it should get someone into the Hall, but you can't really argue that 2,800 hits and 1,600 runs won't get someone in.
As to what would have happened had he stayed in the AL Central his whole career… wow, I don't know. His real skill has been at being durable and consistent for a long time, his real case is in the counting stats he's compiled, and hits and steals aren't support-dependent like runs and RBIs, so we might be having the same conversation about long-time Royal and White Sox fan favorite Johnny Damon. Except with a few more people scratching their heads and saying, "Who?"