Retro style generally has very little appeal to me. It's what becomes trendy whenever we are totally out of ideas as a society. Hey, let's start wearing 1980s Jazzercise outfits again! Why? Because it's time for a change and this is easier than thinking of something new! Let's watch Mad Men. Being a woman in the 1950s must have been so cool – look at those amazing dresses! What lovely kitchens!
On the other hand, I do have a strong affinity for history.
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One thing that never fails to fascinate me is the way that Americans of the past saw their future / our present.
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The 1950s were the height of the naive sense of wonder at the unlimited power of science and technology. Science would bring a future free of diseases and positively laden with bubble- or dome-shaped houses, space tourism, and flying cars to American kids of the Eisenhower era (Disney's Tomorrowland is a particularly famous example of this spirit).
Of course by 1960 the visions of the future had taken a slightly darker turn on account of the ICBM, thermonuclear bomb, and bombers with global range. The nuclear apocalypse became one of the most common themes in fiction, film, and art. Nonetheless, the positive depictions of the future didn't disappear.
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We were still going to beat the Commies, take vacations to dome cities on the moon, and have robot servants washing our astro-dishes. And of course there would still be flying cars.
Whenever I read about retro-futurism I am struck by the joylessness of our current futurism. I mean, does anyone actually think things are going to get better? Who looks forward to 2050 (or even 2030) as a time of technological wonders improving humanity's lot? We don't seem to think we have much to look forward to anymore – environmental catastrophes, mass extinctions, vanishing resources, political instability, economic collapse, critical overpopulation, and a soulless existence as cogs in a society that is little more than an enormous, filthy, and cold machine.
What optimism we have anymore is short-term; such-and-such will make things better now or in the next few years. No one even pretends anymore that things are looking up in the long term. We know that the melting icecaps, rising oceans, food shortages, wars over oil or fresh water, Great Depression III, and Grey Goo are right around the corner. It's optimistic just to think that the U.S. will still be a functioning society in 30 years let alone one kissed by the wonders of science or experiencing any kind of prosperity.
I have no doubt that my own pessimism colors the way I interpret the social consensus. Am I way off base here? Is there anyone out there writing Disney Tomorrowland versions of America 2050?
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Do any of you think that things are lookin' up? That 2030 will be a glorious time to be alive?
At least we finally have our goddamn flying cars – albeit $200,000 ones that can only operate from airports, which largely defeats the purpose, guys.
Can I at least get a jet pack? Man, this future sucks.
tinamou says:
Man, when I was a kid (in the 80's), I would have sworn that by 2010 we'd all be trading in our jet-fuel-inefficient flying cars for solar powered teleporters. We shouldn't even let future generations of kids watch The Jetsons. They'll just laugh at us and then cry themselves to sleep.
J. Dryden says:
Cell phones and related digital technology are, in fact, ridiculously awesome.
Granted, we don't have the World Of Tomorrow as represented by cool means of transportation because we're developing ways to make transportation unnecessary. (Granted, for folks like you, Ed–for whom the trip is often the point of the journey–that's not much of a selling point.)
But consider how close we are to Star Trek levels of virtual intelligence interaction: "Computer, open a hailing frequency and then translate what I'm saying into the languages of everyone who's listening–oh, and look up the etymology of 'tribble' while you're at it, and have the complete works of Dickens delivered to my IPad, along with the name of the guy who played Danno on 'Hawaii 5-0 and the molecular structure of every known form of super-coolant.'"
No flying cars, a la the Jetsons, but man, the shit we'll be able to do in terms of communication, information, and exploration of sub-atomics is gonna be awesome. If the Hadron-Collider doesn't kill us all, we're gonna learn some wicked-slick stuff. Maybe the U.S. won't be a functioning society, but then, maybe that'll be because political borders will start to lose all meaning in a world in which universal access to an online realm of total freedom will make such borders laughably irrelevant.
Is there potential for Frankensteinian overweening chaos? Sure. A Wild West 'the only rule is there are no rules' anarchy? Yep. But strangely, I find that thought exhilarating, because the ones to make their claim in this world will be techno geeks–the smart, rather than the muscled–the ambitious, rather than the privileged.
In short, if we focus less on what it's gonna look like (because it's gonna look like a gaudier version of Tokyo/Times Square) and more on what we're going to able to achieve, the future is potentially quite swell. Or at least, it's going to be a hell of a ride.
I can't believe I'm actually optimistic–or at least, pumped up–about it, but there it is.
Ecks says:
Well, y'know, they used to write plenty of dystopias too… 1984, Brave New World, THX 1138 (the Lucas film)… plenty of grim futures were written going back forever.
But I think the zeitgeist flips with the economy. In the 40's there were lots of grim futures, in the 50's there was explosive economic growth and when you wrote a story about OPTIMISM!!1 it resonated with people. But for the last decade or two we've had stagnant wages for everyone but the mega-rich, along with spiraling debt, and the main threat is no longer one simple easy-to-hate country, but is a miasma of terrorism, eco catastrophe, resource depletion, etc. People aren't feeling giddy about their futures under these circumstances, and who can blame them. So we hunker down with shows about doctors sleeping with each other, and our iphones instead.
ts46064 says:
I hate cell phones, i only own one out of necessity. No obnoxious texting during a conversation with a real person for me.
ts46064 says:
"but then, maybe that'll be because political borders will start to lose all meaning in a world in which universal access to an online realm of total freedom will make such borders laughably irrelevant.'
The only thing laughable is that statement. Things like food and water take precedent over any "online freedom".
Nunya says:
So, uh, Ed… I think you're forgetting the absolute game changing creation of the Internet. It's caused some problems (outsourcing of white people, I mean white collar jobs) but it has unleashed the knowledge only held by heads of states beforehand.
Unfortunately, you have to filter through Midget schieze porn to find it but it is, nonetheless there.
J. Dryden says:
@ ts46064 – Hate cell phones all you want, but if you 'own one out of necessity,' wouldn't that suggest that under certain circumstances–like, oh, I don't know, summoning EMTs to a location toute de suite–it might be 'necessary'? When your wife's in labor and you have to reach your on-call doctor, believe me, you'll thank the inventors of the technology. Besides, professing disdain for them is like boasting about not owning a television–it doesn't make you come across as principled, so much as a surly Luddite.
Also, I said "political borders", not "geography," genius. Natural resources will undoubtedly become more scarce–unless discovery enabled by universal communication leads to discoveries in making them renewable–but since you seem to envisioning some kind of end-of-days Road Warrior conflict over food, water, et al., remember that armed conflict is becoming increasingly performed by robotic agents of the online community, which places both military and economic power back into that community. In short, consider your facile disdain dismissed with an equally facile wanking motion.
ts46064 says:
1) I own one, which I clearly stated.
2)Political borders are shaped by access to natural resources genius. Countries(political entities with artificial borders) rise and fall based on access to resources. And wars have, are and will be fought over access to resources.
"According to Aaron Wolf, et all.[15] there were 1831 water conflicts over transboundary basins from 1950–2000." *
In many parts of the world its is 'end-of-days Road Warrior conflict over food, water, et al.' and it could happen in areas such as the American South West since water conservation is resisted so much by redundant farmers.
Free exchange of information is not going to change the fact that the Middle East has 1% of the worlds fresh water but has 5% of the world population. The country that either has the best access to water or the ability use sources from outside their borders will profit from the water. The financial and other benefits resulting from that will bring more power and influence to that political entity. Same applies to arable land, oil, minerals, access to ports, etc.
3) If the online community were to gain economic and military power through the robotic agents would not the online community turn into a political entity? Would these online communities then create political borders of their own? How does that idea not conflict with the idea of a political borderless world?
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_conflict
ZenPoseur says:
Nothing I write could surpass this, as a response:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kEL_xwdp04
Nunya says:
@ J. Dryden – Word. Seriously, in all ways besides the crumbling of our society, we are living in an absolutely awesome time. People adapt, they overcome challenges because they have to. The fact that I can access the entire library of congress on a whim is enough reason for optimism as I can imagine.
In spite of the fact that Survivor and American Idol draw record audiences, there enough people accessing the collective works of the world that I cannot but hope for the revelations that are to come. Now I don't expect Jesus to come give us a smack down, but I see a new bunch of enlightened people emerge every day.
The bad news of the day will soon (a decade is actually soon) disappear. What we become afterward might just surprise you. As much as I love to bemoan the current state of things, hard times bring about revolutions, and this one will most likely not be based on violence but on a re-renaissance of thought.
Think of the advances we've made in the last 30 years. The EPA is no longer hated and mistrusted (ask people of age in the 80's.) Sustainability is an everyday word and a return to the obvious metrics that sustained 2000 years of population is now becoming mainstream.
Things may appear to suck now bit that is the only way change happens. People simply get sick of the status quo. America may be stupid but it is still the world leader in cultural influence. Maybe we can pass some of this formerly hippy shit onto the rest of the world.
The world, while scary in 2010, has the potential to surprise us all, not in bitchin' flying cars but in a new era of more focus on life and the people we know and less on shiny baubles that we sell our lives to obtain.
beau says:
Look into sf.
Charles Stross is a good place to start.
HoosierPoli says:
On the contrary, our technofetishist consumer-goods future has never looked brighter. Cheap, capacious SSDs are just around the corner! Wall-spanning OLED displays! A marginally improved iPad refresh!
Misterben says:
I am dismayed by the number of people who apparently equate the current orgy of consumer electronics with an increase in personal freedom, or a sign of some kind of improvement to our society. I feel that to be a dangerously short-sighted and almost childish view. More toys for adults does not mean our society is improving. It just means that the corporate sector has found yet another bundle of crap to sell us new versions of every 18 months.
Even more disappointing to me are folks like the Aspen Institute, Geek Overlords Sergei Brin and Larry Page of Google, and others, who seem to have such a techno-utopian futurist outlook that they have faith in magical new technologies that will solve all our problems. Hydrogen-powered cars, solar-power-transformer stations in space, the Internet in every toaster. They seem to see America as a performer with just the one trick: turning a technological advance into a consumer good for mass consumption. That's a pretty limited and dim imagination, I think.
My dream of a utopian future America sort of depends on how Peak Oil comes out. IF the crash hits us hard enough, it could shock us into acceptance quickly. IF we pull together, WWII-style, and make sacrifices for the nation and our neighbors, we could rebuild America in a pattern that makes sense – more urban; functional small towns; mass transit, etc. IF the effects of Peak Oil are felt by Big Business first, then companies like Wal-Mart will wither away, allowing local businesses and networks to take their place.
A lot of super-gigantic firms have to die in this future, because they have no place there, and no way to be profitable: the biggest and most pointless banks, the automakers who refuse to switch to making train cars, and probably a lot of the mid-level "financial services" firms that do nothing but siphon trickles of money from the great tidal waves pushed around by the big banks. That's a lot of blue-collar jobs lost, and probably even more white-collar ones. The suburbs, and the exurbs, will suffer enormously.
But that's kind of the point: the suburbs and the exurbs need to go. And if this country is going to have any kind of a future, we need to yank ourselves away from lifetimes of pointless employment and do things that are meaningful – even, dare I say, fulfilling. And if Peak Oil's effects on this country go the way I dream they will, and not the way I fear they will, all those lost jobs will be replaced by new ones that are more meaningful and more real.
Sluggo says:
Never cared much about flying cars, I just remember futurists promising a four day work week. So much for that… it's Friday and I am here at work.
Major Kong says:
Various flying car prototypes have been built since the late 1940s.
You pretty much end up with something that's not a very good car and not a very good airplane.
Grumpygradstudent says:
I would agree with the amazing-osity of cell phones and the internet. I would add on computing power more generally as a source of awesome-ness (advances in statistical software, for instance, over the last 20 years have been pretty damn impressive).
In the immediate to medium-term future, I don't have much hope for life improving drastically for countries that are already rich, but if we can avoid complete environmental collapse or WWIII, I think the next 50 years will see further strides in global economic development in Asia and South America (just as we've seen in south and east asia over the last 30 years). Africa is the toughest nut to crack (one of the only places that has seen a net negative growth over several decades), but maybe we'll start to see improvement there too.
Just because the political system in the U.S. makes it nigh-impossible to tackle problems here doesn't mean all other countries are similarly screwed.
On the other hand, if we really run out of oil and have nothing to replace it…yeah, shit will start hitting the fan big time.
By the way, isn't Ed's sentiment here much the text book definition of post-modernism?
Elder Futhark says:
The Singularity will not be televised.
andrew says:
as grumpy writes, the decline of the grand narrative of Progress (technological and otherwise) is one of the core ideas of post-modernist social theory. in fact, stanley grenz argued that the modern era ended at 3:32 pm on july 15, 1972 with the planned implosion of the pruitt-igoe housing projects — a symbol of the modernist belief in the power of technology to advance social progress.
Bugboy says:
I watched Blade Runner (again) the other night…great movie…set in 2019. "sighs" The heck with flying cars, where is my Pris!
John says:
Well, also recall the cautionary tales of the cyberpunk sci-fi from the more recent times. Sure, in the 50s we had this bright vision of a future where incredible science and technology took us places we never thought possible…
Then in the 80s and early 90s we realized how dark those places could be.
I wouldn't say that we lost our optimism for what was possible, per se. Rather, we gained perspective on just how wrong it could all go. Sure, we've managed to hide the ominous, sprawling shells and tangled, spidering cables of the most horrifying techno-dystopia visions, but all we've really done is package them up in neat little plastic shells and cable management ties.
The idea that information becomes the sole measure of man's existence, and those with control of the information having an iron-fisted grip on society, is already true.
A common observation is that the advent of texting and facebook/twitter being the primary means of social communication has stunted the upcoming generation's social intelligence. We have people now who are more comfortable talking to people via machines than face-to-face. We have people, even those that would traditionally be considered non-nerds, with their faces buried in their phones and laptops 24/7.
I contend that the cyberpunk dystopia is largely already here, we just managed to make it look prettier than Blade Runner and Neuromancer imagined.
Brian says:
I actually met the guy who founded the company that makes the "flying car." He said that the more accurate term for his invention is a "roadable plane."
LAME
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Jet Packs: http://www.martinjetpack.com/
ladiesbane says:
Brian, I had to smile — Heinlein coined the phrase.
My "ou sont les spaceplanes d'antan" post was neatly displace by Tom the Dancing Bug. Posting this link instead of my rant is my gift to you.
http://www.gocomics.com/tomthedancingbug/2010/07/02/
Have a safe and glorious Independence Day, amigos.
David says:
Probably my favorite novel by Kurt Vonnegut (R.I.P) is his first novel "Player Piano" published in 1952.
The corporations had filled the world with labor-saving appliances (dishwashers, clothes dryers, microwave ovens…) that everyone just HAD to have, produced in factories that were completely automated (higher quality products, no labor unions to deal with…).
Of course, the result was a world in which a few highly paid engineers and managers ran everything, and the vast majority of the population were unemployed. So, the government had to impose large taxes on the corporations which had reduced their costs so much, and use this money to provide make-work jobs to everyone (like FDR's CCC) and subsidized apartments full of labor-saving appliances…
The industrial-governmental complex applies a aptitude exam to all young people — the ranking that results stays with you for life. A class-structure for sure, but based on ability so that's ok, right?
The discontent among the worker class is palpable in the novel. No one is happy with "make work" — and life becomes meaningless without a real sense of purpose or utility.
A techno-utopia for the thinkers and capitalists, but no place for humanity, really…
A very interesting novel for 1952.
And what a great title for the book. There is something "anti-art" about designing a piano that playes itself using a roll of paper…
Em says:
like george carlin said — everybody loves their gizmos. everybody wants a cell phone that will make pancakes. our society, those believers in it, and those who aspire to it, have all been led down the path to unwittingly support corporations, ideologies and governments who don't represent what we are, where we come from and where we live. so you can twitter. good for you.
we have lost touch with the earth. we feel apart from it. for us it's a foe not a mother. we live in spite of our means. its hard to be optimistic of a future where we have already spent the things that will make a future here possible. people keep thinking there is some magic thing that will happen to undo what we have let happen in our watch. good luck with that. i'm glad ill be gone by 2050 and even happier i never had kids. how sad is that?
Keifus says:
And after you re-read Player Piano, you might want to check yourself out a copy of The Space Merchants by Frederik Pohl and Cyril Kornbluth, published in the same year. Some brilliant criticism of consumerism-as-progress, anti-environmentalism, along with a whole host of other modern things, and while it's funny, a lot of its attempted satire reads more like unsettlingly accurate prophecy.
(Fred Pohl, incidentally, is still around, and has a delightful blog.)
ANy good science fiction geek will tell you that it's really a commentary on its own times, but a lot of it in the 30s through 50s was driven by a limited format too. The early stuff included a reverence of H.G. Wells and Jules Verne (that combination of writing parables and developing clever ideas), but also grew out of adventure pulps. The target market was, I think consciously, teenage boys. There were occasional dissents, but I think it took some newly prevalent world views to really break out of its rut. Even John W. Campbell, the dictatorial editor who drove so much of that godawful swashbuckling engineer storytelling style gets credit for trying to up the writing quality.
Modern sf sort of has to answer things like where the energy comes from, and do these people look like anyone people actually know. Best one I've read in a year is Steel Beach by John Varley, which manages to be both wildly optimistic and coldly unflattering in its observations of our species.
Monkey Business says:
I find it fascinating that the 2010s is, so far, the first decade without Star Trek. Born in the 70s, resurrected in the 80s, thrived and overexpanded in the 90s, and died in the 2000s.
To a certain extent though, we've surpassed Star Trek. An iPad is a cooler looking PADD. Our smartphones are equal parts tricorder and communicator. We have wall mounted screens the size of the main viewscreen on the Enterprise.
The problem with futurism today is that the directions our technology has gone and is going lead us down darker and darker paths. A future run by corporations, with nearly exhausted resources, a planet overwhelmed with people, etc. In these dark times, who wants to read about that stuff?
ZenPoseur says:
truth=freedom,
I couldn't have been more disappointed with the demo video for the Martin Jetpack. That is not a jetpack. That is an airplane that you strap to your ass.
BillCinSD says:
"What optimism we have anymore is short-term; such-and-such will make things better now or in the next few years. No one even pretends anymore that things are looking up in the long term."
I would say much of this has to do with the adoption of the corporatist mindset by much of society. Only the short term matters, whether the long term is good or bad is immaterial. Only the now maters
twiffer says:
@sluggo: the 4 day work week is still around. unfortunately it involves working 4 10 hr. days instead of 5 8 hr. ones.
chautauqua says:
I was quite fond of jazzercise clothes.
party with tina says:
I think Nunya just suggested that by perusing midget schieze porn we will find state secrets… I'm not sure I agree…
Bob Hopeless says:
My outlook is colored by my own pessimism, too, so I'm no help. I do know that I must have felt a bit more optimistic three years ago, because my wife and I had a kid. Who I now hope I can pack in a rocket someday and send her off to a better planet.
Oh, wait, that won't happen, either.
Jimcat says:
I derive my hope for the future from the knowledge that there are still people who, instead of complaining about how bad things are, are dvoting their energy to making them better.
jazzbumpa says:
But I think the zeitgeist flips with the economy.
Ecks has it exactly backwards.
I know, pure Elliott wave-ism, and the operative phrase is "social mood."
Ed hit it out of the park with the Krugman link. It's deja depression era vu thinking all over again.
FDR was pretty close to right. What we have to fear now are the austerity hawks.
But most of us are only beginning to feel it.
WASF,
JzB
Robert says:
David,
What it made me think of was "Riders of the Purple Wage". by
Philip Jose Farmer, IIRC. A near-future dystopia, in which the vast
majority of the population is on the dole, or 'purple wage', since
there is nothing for them to do.
MegaCity One (from the Judge Dredd stories) had a similar set-up, but even grimmer.
BroTranslation says:
The promise has been fulfilled. (Hope the link works…)
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2010/07/02/ricks.fotos.car.moose.cnn?hpt=C2
karen marie says:
J.Dryden says: … armed conflict is becoming increasingly performed by robotic agents of the online community
OMG. Are you trying to reassure us or scare us to fucking death?
I'm sure, given enough time, the RedState Trike Force could end up killing us all.
And I'll have you know that I do not have a TV (disconnected the cable in 2004, and threw the damn box out the door in 2009), and while I am happy to embrace the appellation Luddite, I am quite definitely not surly.
Wes says:
We do have jetpacks and there have always been people predicting the downfall of society. I'm not sure if there's a little more or a little less of that sentiment now, but I certainly know plenty of people very excited about what the future will bring (just check out H+ magazine for a particular flavor of pro-future types).
Continuing incremental improvements to life expectancy, global income equality, basic freedoms and availability of leisure time all seem like a pretty cool future to me. I guess it depends on whether you find Julian Simon or Paul Ehrlich more compelling.
Chris says:
The future is going to be stranger than we think, in my opinion. It is not just the refinements on existing technology, but the disruptive new technologies that reshape our world. This time last century, we had no idea about quantum mechanics genetic engineering or ecosystems. We are now comfortable with wonders that ruined many, saved countless others, and have reshaped the world for everyone. How many blacksmiths were there per capital in 1910? How many oceanographers? How many of us owe our lives to antibiotics?
grendelkhan says:
There's an anthology of optimistic SF called Shine; I haven't read it, but I think it's the sort of thing you're asking for. Also, David Brin has an irrepressibly positive outlook on things; he seems to be rather enamored of the Enlightenment and keen on explaining to everyone that it's a nifty idea which shouldn't be taken for granted.
Of course, there's also the Eliezer Yudkowsky/Aubrey de Grey/Ray Kurzweil contingent, but I suppose there's more derision here for that perspective than anything else.
The early 1990s called, and they want their starry-eyed optimism back. Can I interest you in a Timothy C. May essay? Perhaps an issue of Mondo 2000?
In all seriousness, while the internet does make some staggeringly important things like Wikileaks possible, it doesn't change people in the ways you want it to. I suppose we have more and better porn, but the whole total-freedom thing is bullshit. The dream of universal unfettered computing for the masses is a sick joke in a world where the world's largest supercomputer is a botnet. The iPad was just the cherry on top.
Paul W. Luscher says:
It's one of the dismaying things about being a baby boomer (you don't still hate us, do you?), living in American on the upside of the arc when I was young, and remembering what it was like when the world seemed to be our oyster, to living in America when it's on the downside of the arc (let's hope I'm wrong about that, but I don't have a good feeling….).
Back then I used to wonder why I was so lucky to be born in America, now sometimes I wonder what I did wrong to deserve being born here.
Jason says:
Apart from the fact that most people are too preoccupied with frivolous nonsense, I think part of the reason that we lack an optimistic look at the future is because it's harder to envision than it was 50-60 years ago. Technology operates on a sort of diminishing feedback loop where the new technology feeds the growth of the next generation. Each of these cycles gets shorter than the previous as the technology evolves. For example, the next 50 years will see 32 times as much technical progress as the last 50 years. Think about the evolution of cellphones. I went from having a shitty nokia phone that I had to carry in a bag, to a highly portable one in a matter of years. Now within a year there are huge leaps being made in terms of portability and functionality. That might be a bad example because I admittedly hate my phone, but I hope you get the point. It's hard for me, personally, to envision what the future has in store for us when the rate of progress is seemingly exponential. Though things like social media and phones are terrible addictions, we are approaching a point social and political institutions will not change rapidly enough to encompass whatever physiological effect this has. Regardless of we perceive the future, I believe we undoubtedly live in the most exciting epoch in history to be alive. But, perhaps people have believed that for as long as we have had civilization.
grendelkhan says:
Oh, and have A Goddamned Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, while you're at it.
Patrick says:
We don't need a better tomorrow, we just need better happy pills. At some point we need to start asking what the political consequences of widespread medicated comfort are. How Brave is our New World?
p.s. If we can make grey goo, imagination is the only limit on awesome futures. Maybe we're at a nadir and something unexpected will make things look up.
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