Among other failings I happen to be a huge hockey fan. The aughts were a rough decade for Lord Stanley's game, especially when labor disputes (fueled largely by an uncapped, wildly inflated salary system that nearly bankrupted a handful of teams) canceled the 2004-2005 season. The game came back strong after the lockout thanks to a group of young superstars worthy of the Gretzky era. A Pittsburgh team that was nearly folded by the league has won the Cup and Chicago has risen from the Bill Wirtz-era dead. But the league is still in trouble, paying dearly for bad business decisions made in the 1990s.
Unlike the other three "major" sports in North America, hockey has no TV revenue to speak of. The economics of the game are attendance-driven. But in 1990 the league had a national TV contract, albeit not a huge one, and throughout the decade that fact drove expansion and relocation. In short, the league and its existing owners felt that it was in their interest to put teams in large, rapidly-growing American TV markets without hockey. Bigger TV markets meant more revenue from the national contracts. And of course just about all of those cities were in the south. You know, big hockey towns.
Thus the Minnesota North Stars were split in two, half of the team founding the San Jose Sharks and the other half moving to Dallas. Expansion happened in Tampa, Anaheim, Denver, Miami, Nashville, Atlanta, and Columbus. The Winnipeg Jets became the Phoenix Coyotes. Hartford became Carolina. Quebec moved to Denver. While the league made some decent expansion decisions – putting a team back in Minneapolis and a new one in Ottawa – overall this has not been a rousing success.
The TV contract disappeared with the lockout (it was never worth much to begin with) and suddenly the league found itself with a bunch of teams in places with no hockey history playing to 1/3 capacity. Look at the bottom 10 teams in attendance in a 30-team league. Note that these figures represent tickets sold and not actual butts in seats, which for all of these teams is far less.
Notice anything? And these teams aren't even bad. Phoenix, a zombie franchise basically being run by the league after its baffling refusal to allow a Canadian billionaire to move it to Hamilton, is going to make the playoffs. Tampa, Colorado, Anaheim, and Carolina have all won Stanley Cups in the last 10 years. Atlanta, last seen auctioning off Ilya Kovalchuk (the latest superstar to get sick of playing in front of 1800 people, a la Marian Hossa and Marc Savard in Hotlanta and Jay Bouwmeester in Miami), is one win out of a playoff spot. Nashville and Columbus made the playoffs last year. The explanation here is pretty simple. The economy is terrible and the teams don't have deep enough roots in these cities to weather the downtimes.
The league's strategy for drawing fans in these places centered on A) retirees and B) a fast-growing young population. They assumed the retirees in Phoenix and Florida would come out a few times per year to see their Boston Bruins or Detroit Red Wings visit and they thought the hip, young dot-com generation would adopt the home team. Unfortunately the retirees didn't follow through and the young people have no money. Hence a bunch of moribund franchises regularly playing in front of nobody. If the league is going to be financially viable as a whole these teams badly need to be returned to "hockey markets." At least the small, no-TV-revenue Canadian teams managed to fill the stadiums before they were boxed up and shipped to the Sun Belt.
So here's what we're going to do.
First, let's not overreact. Tampa led the league in attendance for the first half of the decade. Colorado has a strong fan base. Carolina's draw is decent but they're terrible this year. Anaheim is strong but they'll miss the playoffs and we know how messed up things are in Southern Cal. These teams are probably viable in the long run.
This brings us to the zombie franchises. Let's start with Phoenix. I hope the league is happy with its pig-headed decision to protect the old-money Toronto Maple Leafs block the move to Hamilton, Ontario. After the team filed bankruptcy last summer, the NHL found to its great embarrassment that it had no bidders willing to accept the condition of keeping the team in Phoenix. So the NHL bid on its own team. Now it's holding it until a Phoenix-friendly buyer is found. Good luck with that. The league is having the Coyotes play five "home games" in Saskatoon next year. Problem solved. Sell those games out, find a Canadian owner, and move this sinking ship to Regina/Saskatoon.
Atlanta is done in Atlanta. Now that Kovalchuk has been auctioned off to the New Jersey Devils whatever minimal interest in the team exists in ATL will disappear. The team has actually been in Federal court for five years trying to determine who actually owns the damn thing. That has to be a first. Meanwhile, the criminally inept Don Waddell has been running the team in aimless circles in front of "crowds" that could fit in my car. Let's right a historical wrong and bring back the Winnipeg Whiteout. It's a small market but at least they'll give a crap about the team.
The Florida Panthers haven't drawn flies in South Florida since making it to the Cup finals in 1996 despite spending on stars like Pavel Bure. Nobody cares about the team and the players can't wait to leave. Meanwhile, Quebec City is still missing its Nordiques. They're a stadium away from getting another team. Make it happen.
That leaves us with Columbus and Nashville but no viable Canadian cities left. Kansas City has been trying hard to land a team for years but I can't imagine that would turn out much differently than a place like Atlanta – the KC Scouts didn't last two years there. New England is already saturated and a return to Hartford seems like a poor idea. Baltimore is Washington Capitals country. Milwaukee is too close to Chicago. Ditto Seattle and Vancouver. In Canada, the only other option is Halifax – which simply lacks the facilities. So what happens with these teams?
Gary Bettman is stubborn and hasn't quite learned his lesson about shoehorning teams into markets that do not give the slightest shit about hockey, so Columbus will end up in Las Vegas. It'll last for about five years and we'll end up right back where we started. We have to think outside of the box for a market for Nashville. Here's an idea: Anchorage. The metro area has a mere 350,000 people but Alaskans like hockey and they'd be the only game in town. Maybe play a few home games per year in Fairbanks. Could it be any worse than the crowds in the south?
To recap: Florida becomes Quebec City. Atlanta becomes Winnipeg. Phoenix becomes Saskatchewan. Columbus ends up in Vegas. Nashville either sticks it out in Tennessee (they're the least awful of the zombie teams) or moves to Anchorage. Fewer teams play in empty arenas and the solvent teams have to direct less revenue-sharing money toward their southern cousins. More teams play in cities in which someone cares. More players get to trade warm weather and indifference for hard winters with hardcore hockey fans.
I will not even charge the NHL a consulting fee for having saved it. Canada, on the other hand, owes me big time. You're welcome.
Peter Johnson says:
Sense of interesting!
Comrade PhysioProf says:
Hockey!? Dude, lay off the fucking crack pipe.
Stonecutter says:
I know it's not much further from Chicago than Milwaukee, but hockey is HUGE in Madison thanks to UW. If you stuck the Preds in Madison they'd draw.
They'd even get a nice Chicago effect like the Brewers do with the Cubs. Hawks, tickets, once a dime a dozen, are now a hot item. Granted, the Hawks would come in a maximum of 4 times a year, but that's probably 4 more sellouts than Nashville normally gets per year.
SamInMpls says:
Yes!
The NHL really should contract and eliminate 6-10 teams. Better yet would be to adopt a premiership system of promotion and relegation. A premiership system would most likely skew towards northern US and Canadian teams with enough support to sustain relegation. This wouldn't actually cost the NHL a ton of TV revenue because currently they only get peanuts and it would improve the quality of play. Casual fans in markets that do support teams tend to show up for the playoffs simply because PLAYOFF HOCKEY IS AWESOME. Raising the talent level makes all the difference in the world.
Disclaimer: As a college hockey fan, I'm hopelessly biased. I'd like to see players stay in school for at least 2-3 years instead of going pro after a semester and a half. The same holds true for the NBA. If they have the legal right to enforce an age limit, it should be at least 2 years after high school, if not 3.
Daniel says:
I think Seattle could handle an NHL team. Since the Sonics got ripped out of there, there seems to be a gaping hole in Seattle pro-sports. It's pretty wild to think that the last Canadian team to win the Cup was the 93 Canadiens.
I don't see Anchorage working as an NHL destination. The fans there would eat it up, but the league and other teams would bitch about the longer flights and the lack of facilities. I say give Cleveland another go at it. The Barons didn't work out and the B.J.s are nearby, but it's a big Great Lakes city.
Comhradh says:
Bettman has got to be the worst thing to happen to hockey… ever. The lockout, the ridiculous expansion, allowing the national TV contract to lapse, it's just indefensible. I gag whenever I see him, especially when he's doing his used-car-salesman routine while standing next to the best trophy in all sports history.
I'm all for moving teams back to Canada. The salary cap has made that more feasible now, considering Canadian teams still need to pay their players in US Dollars. They still need a better television contract, though, regardless. 1-2 games a week on NBC and whatever scraps on Versus (a channel that was basically revamped just for hockey) is not enough. And it's not just broadcasting games I'm talking about – there need to be hockey programs, specifically on ESPN. The NHL network is all well and good, but you're only watching it if you like hockey. I'm talking about NHL2Night. Back when I still got Versus (before Comcast got really deep into their game of Monopoly and forced DirecTV out of offering hockey to anyone in Philadelphia), I was shocked by the speed at which a hockey game – even a playoff game – would end, and BULL RIDING would start. In an overtime game, this was less than a minute. Goal scored, great game, good night, YEEE-HAW! Even five minutes of analysis and notes from the league is better than that.
Anyway, Bettman needs to go. He's needed to go since… well, since he got there.
Aslan Maskhadov says:
This is way off topic but you should know that вареники are nothing like tacos. They are more like tiny dumplings filled usually with something akin to cottage cheese, potatos, or cherries. Tacos is really hard to translate in the plural- so you're better off going with the phonetic такос. Hope this was helpful.
ladiesbane says:
I grew up rooting for the Oilers (even when they were playing the Leafs) but now I live in the Bay Area and have to put up with Sharks fans everywhere. San Jose at least has converted.
And Aslan, are you talking about vareniki? If it's in reference to the blog title, I think "Gin and Pierogies" might have a better ring (unless it's the egg-filled, which I dislike) but "tacos" is winnah and still champeen.
Baltimore says:
"Baltimore is Washington Capitals country." Not really, Baltimore is just not a hockey town. In terms of second-tier sports, Balitmore is a lax town. As for the Capitals, it has a fan base in DC because transplants want to see hockey. This is Baltimore hon, our transplants (all 10 of them) want crabcakes and lacrosse.
Steve from Canada says:
Thanks, Ed! Those sound like good solutions, but the NHL isn't going to take you up on your free advice. Bettman is evil — has anyone else noticed that he looks like the Count from Sesame Street?
Counting! Teams! 27, 28, 29, 30! So many teams! So little interest!
But he's about as ready to admit he made a mistake as, say, Cheney. Phoenix will arise from the ashes, mark his words …
Devilham says:
Love all the ideas, except, BRING BACK THE WHALE!!!! HARTFORD IN '11!!!!
Boski says:
I can roll with that, but if it had to be, this Orange County Kings fan and former Disney employee would have no problem seeing the Water Fowl be sent away.
JohnR says:
Well, I'll be buggered! THis is about the first time anyone's actually taken the words right out of my mouth, but Baltimore did it – about 3 1/2 out of 4 sentences are close enough to raise questions of plagiarism! Guess it's true; we Baltimoreans think alike.
Matt L says:
Sam is right, the NHL totally needs a relegation system. And Ed, your ideas for moving hockey back to Canada sound great. Except I think teams in Milwaukee and Seattle would do well. Vancouver really is not close enough for a quick drive to see some hockey.
Eric says:
I've got an idea.
Hockey in Nebraska.
It's crazy right? Nebraska is college football country, yanno? I think it's only football country because there is NOTHING else in Nebraska. So put a hockey team there, it'll flourish simply because it'll give Nebraska something to do besides watch college football.
Ike says:
The trouble with all this, hockey is, like soccer, a player's sport. It just isn't that interesting to the casual observer. Any one kick, block, shot, etc. is inconsequential to the overall game… except for when a point is scored. Mostly it's players running/skating around getting tired. Compare this to American football where blink and you miss the most important play of this decade. Basketball avoids this situation because of all the cool camera angles that are possible and the athleticism of people who fly. Baseball is slow and intellectual which is why it is perfectly suited to radio. Of course, if everyone found out how much fun a hockey game is live… just the sound of skates shredding the ice can be intoxicating, and then YOU ARE SO DARN CLOSE TO THE GAME… but most Americans have never been and never will be to a game. So they live their lives in blissful ignorance.
Overlady says:
I would just like to jump in and mention that here in AUSTIN TEXAS, we have our own, HOME-GROWN local Hockey team, THE ICE BATS. So it is ENTIRELY possible to have a hometown hockey team in the brutally hot sunny Southwest when it never, ever snows and nothing ever freezes.
I don't think they are a member of the NHL, but give it time!
long time caps fan says:
we were discussing something like this yesterday. the basic elimination of the southeast conference would push the washington capitals back into the mid-atlantic/northeast market.
this has some advantages and disadvantages. the caps have completely reinvented themselves as an offensive juggernaut. they've eliminated the role of the traditional goon and run a deceptively simple strategy: we're going to score 4-5 points each night and if you can't catch us, we'll win. A lot of their success, admittedly, comes from playing hapless southeast division teams. it's an interesting question of whether the caps could stay injury free with a schedule that had a lot of appointments with the flyers, devils and rangers.
also of interest is the general direction of hockey. i think, in a sense, it's beginning a slow shift back towards something that more resembles college hockey.
smelter rat says:
I can't argue with anything you've said. The NHL will never move forward with Bettman at the helm. Most of the owners could care less, as long as the $$ keep rolling in from the royalties from paraphernalia etc. Go Jets!
jazzbumpa says:
I'll tell you what kind of a hockey fan I am. The other night I watched the American Jr women kick Finland's frozen arctic ass.
But I will not watch a fucking shoot out. When my beloved Red Wings blow a 2 or 3 goal lead (as the did today, losing 4-3 in regulation, for Christ's sake) and go to O/T, they change the fucking rules. Now it's 4 on 4. Then, if no-one scores scores, they have a god-damned shoot out. That's when I turn off the TV and go back to Wii bowling. Which is actually kinda fun.
Bettman is not only the worst thing to happen to hockey. He's in a dead heat with Matt Millen as the worst thing to even happen to any sport, any time, any where.
Ed – Your ideas sound good to me.
Cheers!
JzB
Steve from Canada says:
Jazzbumpa, I'm with you. The "extra circus time" of the shootout has nothing to do with hockey. For example, my team, the Vancouver Canucks, won in a shootout today, but I didn't watch. Shootouts suck. Ties are better. This is what comes of trying to sell hockey to people who will never like hockey.
Shell Goddamnit says:
So sorry, the Ice Bats are gone from Austin. "The Ice Bats have suspended operations until further notice" anyway. Now we have the Texas Stars, sucking all the coolth out of the whole concept and rendering my Ice Bat rearview mirror dangler obsolete.
Rick says:
Only the general well-meaningness of some comments prevents me from getting too snarky… People, PLEASE, we do NOT score *points* in hockey. They're called GOALS.
To clarify: when the puck goes into the net, it's a goal; *assists* are given to the one or two players who passed the puck to the GOAL-scorer; in the scoring race, goals+assists=points; team standings are also decided by points.
Please accept my apologies if I seem rude. For what it's worth I also nag at Brits for saying stuff like "he SCORED a home run" or the Japanese for calling "runs" *points*.
jjack says:
I'm not so sure the fans in Anchorage would support an NHL team any better than Nashville would. Anchorage fans don't love hockey so much as they love a winner. We already have two hockey teams of significance — the AA minor pro Aces of the ECHL, affiliated with the St. Louis Blues, and the UAA Seawolves of NCAA DI. Neither one is drawing a big crowd.
Despite the Seawolves being in the premier conference of college hockey and turning out a number of pro players, including several NHL players, in recent years, they haven't put together a winning streak and they have trouble filling the relatively small arena halfway full. The Aces were, at their high point, nightly sell-outs. But that's when they were the top dog in the league and were perennial playoff fixtures, including one year when they brought home the league championship. Before that, the team was pretty much a joke, sinking to the low of being sold on eBay. Since the glory days have come and gone, the rink is pretty much deserted as well.
So I guess my point is, since the team would have to pull in about 5% of the total metro population to be successful, maybe moreso when you consider inflated travel costs and all that jazz, they would have to start winning before the bloom was off the "new thing in town" and continue to kick ass nearly every year in order to win over the fairweather fans of this fickle town. I hate to rally against my hometown getting something new and cool because I love Anchorage, it's my favorite city on earth, but the hockey fans here suck and I have to offer an honest assessment.
Seattle might not be a bad choice; even though it's Vancouver territory, I have to wonder how many people in the Seattle area really want to cross the border into Canada — an act that is a bit of an inconvenience and now requires getting a passport, a feat which many Americans believe is too much of a hassle to bother with — more than a couple times a year. Fans there might be quick to change their allegiance. On the other hand, Seattle really doesn't get hockey in my opinion. Now that they have the Sounders, I bet the folks who are interested in a sport outside of baseball and football will find soccer more up their alley.
So, my suggestion: Portland, Oregon. With a metro area of 2 mil it's about half the market that Seattle is. But on the other hand, they seem to be more of a hockey town. They've had more success supporting junior hockey teams than Seattle has. They have a major-junior team in the Portland Winterhawks that does well, while metro-area Fort Vancouver supported the fantastic disaster that was the Pioneers of the scandalous Junior-B NORPAC than some of the cities with more-legitimate teams in that league, Seattle included. NHL history proves that the best hockey market is not necessarily the biggest one; hell, the Stanley Cup was once contested in Dawson City, Yukon. I'd say move the Predators to Portland.