It was not until I started this little exercise in logical fallacies that I realized just how easy it would be to knock them down, one by one, simply by reading neoconservative opinion columnists regularly. Analogies about fish and barrels come to mind. Thank god it's so easy, because reading this shit is just painful. Analogies about hot pokers and eyes come to mind.
Bill Kristol is a logical fallacy with pants. There are so many things that make me laugh about this column that I can hardly focus on its formal flaws. But let's start with his textbook use of cum hoc ergo propter hoc – the "correlation equals causation" fallacy. In his latest I-can't-fucking-believe-the-Post-pays-for-this-and-prints-it column, Kristol goes far enough to make even his staunchest allies wonder if he's in the ether. Let's look at his stunning logic at work:
Let's step back from the unnecessary mistakes and the self-inflicted wounds that have characterized the Bush administration. Let's look at the broad forest rather than the often unlovely trees. What do we see? First, no second terrorist attack on U.S. soil — not something we could have taken for granted. Second, a strong economy — also something that wasn't inevitable. And third, and most important, a war in Iraq that has been very difficult, but where…we now seem to be on course to a successful outcome.
And then, just when I think I have choked through the worst of it, Kristol drops the bomb:
What about terrorism? Apart from Iraq, there has been less of it, here and abroad, than many experts predicted on Sept. 12, 2001. So Bush and Vice President Cheney probably are doing some important things right.
There have been no more incidents, so Bush and Cheney "probably are doing some important things right." Ladies and gentlement, the Washington Post printed this. This man is a multi-millionaire, he gets to spew his bullshit on TV every day, and he has a direct phone line to the White House. Ignore (for just a moment) that points two and three range from complete fabrication (the economy is strong!) to mere delusion and willful misinterpretation of facts ("we now seem to be on course to a successful outcome.")
I'd rather focus on the first part: no domestic terror attacks since 9/11. Why? In KristolWorld, we've avoided this fate thanks to George Bush, the War on Terror, invading Iraq, and so on. No terrorist attacks + George Bush is president = George Bush's actions have prevented terrorism. Let's run with Bill's "logic" here. Since 9/11, the White Sox have won the World Series. The price of gas has exploded. Neil Patrick Harris came out of the closet. Pluto ceased to be a planet. Mickey Spillane died. George Bush is responsible for all of these things.
I'll leave this rather simple, self-explanatory fallacy alone now. But I'm not done having fun with Bill yet. You might want to take a glance at the comments on that Post website. There are more than twenty-five hundred comments. As far as I can tell (and I admit I didn't read all 2580 of them) the thematic range of the comments starts at "This makes no sense" and tapers down to "Bill Kristol is out of his goddamn mind."
He then stretches his legs to do a little fellatio on Gen. Petraeus – a common neocon talking point these days. Why are they laying it on so thick? Well, they have two months until the September deadline for evaluating if the "surge" is working. And they're going to use that two months verbally turning the guy into Jesus Christ and Patton roled into one….so that when he says the surge is working, well by golly we'd better believe him! Finally, and this is when he really gets into the cough syrup, the GOP has the Democratic Party right where they want it. The odds of a Republican sweep in 2008 simply couldn't be better!
What it comes down to is this: If Petraeus succeeds in Iraq, and a Republican wins in 2008, Bush will be viewed as a successful president. I like the odds.
Well the right-wing talking heads have already pre-ordained the "Petraeus will succeed" part – just talk about the guy like he's an infallible genius, and then all he has to do to succeed is say "I have succeeded." Combined with the great odds that our next president is going to be Fred Thompson, Bush is going to be positive fawned over in the history books.
Given that Bill Kristol has been wrong about every single goddamn thing in the last four years (the talk of sectarian strife in Iraq was overblown "pop sociology") it's really amazing that he continues to make these kinds of predictions in print. I guess it's easy when no one in the media ever calls him out on his abject stupidity…and they keep writing him checks to squeeze out more brown, sludgy lumps of brilliant prognostication.
Matthew says:
"Cum hoc" sounds kind of dirty.
Like what someone might do if they don't swallow.
Thank you and goodnight!
Peggy says:
Matthew: nice try at being more disgusting than the fact that Kristol remains in print. Close, but no cigar (THE CIGAR IS JUST A CIGAR! STOP BEING DISGUSTING!).