Since approximately 1964 it has been exceptionally depressing to be a Democrat in this country. The "successes" interspersed among a nearly-unbroken string of awful candidates, sad excuses for leaders, and dismal failures have been Jimmy Carter (!!!) and Bill "I accomplished more of Reagan's agenda than Reagan did" Clinton. And it's just as clear looking ahead to 2008 that this is not exactly the year that will turn things around. I will not belabor the point by re-hashing all of the hand-wringing you have already heard about how once again the Democrats are trying to choose among a pool of horrid potential nominees (HRC, John "Stench of Losing" Edwards, Al Gore, Barack "I've been in the Senate for 5 minutes" Obama, and a host of no-names).
Let's cheer ourselves up by taking a few minutes to point out the equally-obvious (but much more rarely-stated): 2008 promises to be the worst GOP field since the "Who wants to donate their body to run against FDR?" 1940s. In my mind, only 1996 can even come close in terms of offering up a slate of turkeys like this. I mean, as weak as the Democratic field is, the front-runners and eventual winners are relatively easy to identify (Clinton vs. Obama, with Edwards poised to make a run when one of them falters). Who is the Republican front-runner at the moment?
*crickets*
Yeah, I thought so. In such a vacuum, it should be whoever appeals best to the party base (i.e., James Dobson) has the best odds. But we can't even say who that is at the moment. Who is the Religious Right excited about?
Since heavyweights like Dobson, Falwell, Robertson, et al are not about to lower themselves to supporting 4th-rate non-entity candidates like Sam Brownback (and assuming that no one connected to the current administration has a snowball's chance in hell as a potential candidate), who does that leave? Whose star does the massive "GOP base turnout machine" attach itself to?
Are you ready? Grab a seat.
Newt Gingrich.
Yes, the wheels have been set in motion for Gingrich (who just published a book called "Rediscovering God in America" – no word on whether he sent copies to the secretary he was fucking while his wife was getting treated for cancer) to receive the Mark of Approval from the kingmaker himself.
That Newt Gingrich could be the GOP candidate in 2008 (at least it made a shred of sense in 1996) is so far beyond idiotic that it doesn't even bear further discussion. It speaks for itself. As does the fact that among registered Republicans he's polling about 9% right now (and remember, that's with significant name recognition advantages).
So one of two things happens: Dobson, Inc. gets its way and Gingrich is nominated, in which case I can't really imagine a world in which any Democrat could fuck up enough to lose (although HRC could probably find a way). Failing that, a "moderate" like McCain or Giuliani gets nominated over the expressed objections of the leading religious right figures, after which they wash their hands of the election and millions of bible-thumpers stay home on election day or toss support behind some crackpot independent.
As hard as it is to conceive of scenarios under which Obama or Clinton could win the general election, I have to be honest – it's even harder to dream one up in which any of this god-awful Republican field stand a fighting chance.