There's only one thing a blogger can do in response to a post that bores the living shit out of everyone who lays eyes on it – do a follow-up a few months later.
So now that the primaries are over, let's take another look at them there Senate races. I'll take a look at my predictions from May, make fun of them where appropriate, and talk about where we stand for November 8. Please note that I'm getting poll numbers from a number of excellent sources of aggregated public opinion research, including this one, Rasmussen, and Real Clear.
Overview
Discussing how things don't look to rosy for the GOP at this point is fruitless, breeds over-confidence, and promotes eventual disappointment. Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity. Don't forget that about 35% of this country will vote Republican no matter what. Dennis Hastert could go on C-SPAN and snort lines of coke off a 14 year-old page's ass and he'd still get a few hundred thousand pro-life votes.
So don't get cocky.
That said, Republicans in every close Senate race are losing. But polls are a cruel mistress. Let's see where the individual races stand.
Utterly Pointless Races
Indiana – Dick Lugar. (R) Unopposed.
Hawaii – Daniel Akaka. (D) Weakly opposed after crushing a primary challenger.
California – Dianne Feinstein (D). Yep.
New York – Hilary Clinton. Every year the GOP puts up a fuss about some great challenger for NY's Senate seats, and it never happens.
Massachusetts – Ted Kennedy. Lifetime appointment.
Delaware – Tom Carper (D), former Governor, a lock for re-election.
Wyoming – Craig Thomas (R) is a lock.
Utah – Orrin Hatch (R) is essentially unopposed.
Wisconsin – Herb Kohl (D) has more money than God and is nearly as popular.
Arizona – John Kyl (R) has a decent opponent but will not blow it.
Mississippi – Trent Lott (R) is the only person who can sink Trent Lott.
Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Try to guess which party she's in.
Connecticut – Joe Lieberman. Wow. Looks like I blew this one. In my defense, let me point out that in the last 50 years of American politics, not one previously-elected (that is, not appointed) incumbent Senator has lost to a primary challenger in his own party. Not one. So as much as Lieberman blows, it was realistic to expect that he would hang on. Well, I guess he just blows that much and more. We'll talk about this race below with the toss-ups.
Safe, but not 100%
These races feature incumbents that are somewhat safe but have either strong challengers or could be in trouble if the GOP suffers too much at the national level.
Washington – Maria Cantwell (D) is widely known to be a very weak incumbent, but in a Democratic-leaning year and in a liberal state she should be able to hang on. Challenger Mike McGavick is a multi-millionaire and is throwing everything he can into this race, but most polls have him 10 points back.
Nevada – John Ensign (R) is pretty safe, but the demographics of the state are changing so radically (and rapidly) that no incumbent can take things for granted. Jimmy Carter's son (!!!) Jack is the challenger, and he's actually pulling close to the MOE in recent polls. Looks like Ensign holds on, though.
New Mexico – The state isn't terribly liberal, but Jeff Bingaman (D) scared off the strong GOP challenger (Heather Wilson, Congresswoman) and is running against a punching bag Allen McCullough. Bingaman walks.
Nebraska – Ben Nelson (D) is about as liberal as Tucker Carlson, but Bush's utter stupidity – naming popular Nebraska Governor Mike Johanns to his cabinet – took care of Nelson's only real competition.
Michigan – The Democratic iron grip on the state is fading, but Debbie Stabenow (D) scared off potential opponents by winning a brutal race back in 2000. Mike Bouchard has done his damnest but still trails by about 8 points – and that was before Congressman Boy Ass came up.
N. Dakota – Kent Conrad (D) walks. I can't believe the GOP can't win in this state. What the fuck.
West Virginia – Robert Byrd (D) is 89 and still a lock. Thirty point lead.
Florida – Bill Nelson (D) was shitting himself in fear until he realized that his likely opponent (thanks to a couple million she inherited from her daddy) is the hideous Katherine Harris. She is this year's Alan Keyes. Nelson by about 30 points.
Virginia – George "I hate the negroes" Allen (R) was doing alright until the whole "macaca" thing. Smart thinking, Georgie. You're a real rocket scientist. The question now is whether the DNC and DSCC can close the deal. If I were Chuck Schumer, I'd be pissing money into this race. The national party has had a lot of words of support for Webb (a quality candidate who was polling about 40% even before the incident) but what he really needs is for them to send him Ryder trucks full of money. Latest polls are dead-even. Remember that scene in Return of the King where the big war elephant is stumbling around while King Theoden keeps yelling "BRING HIM DOWN! BRING HIM DOWN!"? That's what I picture when I see this race. If the DSCC is relentless, they can bring Allen down.
Maine – Olympia Snowe (R). This race didn't become competitive like I suspected.
Incumbents in Trouble
This election features an uncharacteristically high number of incumbents in serious trouble. A few are actually underdogs in their respective races, and the rest are burning through their state's supply of Tums and Early Times whiskey.
Montana – Conrad Burns (R) is fucked. He trails Jon Tester – and you heard it here first, he's a future Presidential candidate – by 7 points. More importantly, he's lost ground steadily over a period of about 10 weeks. Burns is one of the most heavily involved Senators in the Jack Abramoff lobbying mess. The Governor and Burns' fellow Senator (Max Baucus) are Democrats. Tester had the quote of Election 2006 when Burns started needling him as "soft on terror" – "Let me be clear in that I don't intend to soften the Patriot Act. I intend to repeal it." The Republicans are losing the mountain west.
Ohio – Mike DeWine (R) is the wrong man in the wrong place. GOP Governor Bobby Taft has been indicted, GOP Congressman Bob Ney has been indicted and disgraced, and now the GOP Page scandal. It's just going to be too much for him. He's already trailing popular black Congressman Sherrod Brown (but within the MOE) and recent days' events will only make things worse. The national Democratic party should take notes on how Brown has successfully tied DeWine to President Bush as the latter sinks like a stone. He's like Tester – another guy who responds to the "soft on national security" accusations with a big Fuck You. If Brown turns out black urban voters, this could be ugly for DeWine.
Pennsylvania – Rick Santorum (R) has never really been in this race, which is very odd for an incumbent. Not only is he "in trouble" but he's actually the significant underdog. Polling indicates a consistent 12-15% advantage for his opponent, popular state political mainstay Bob Casey. Santorum's re-election would actually be an upset at this point.
Missouri – Jim Talent (R) is now officially in a toss-up race. His problem is that he is virtually anonymous, even in his own state. His challenger (Claire McCaskill) is mediocre, but 3rd-party candidate Frank Gilmore is hurting Talent among suburban Republicans. This is another race in which the DNC needs to pour money. It's basically two bad candidates and it will come down to who turns out more of the base. My money is on McCaskill unless Gilmore drops out, which looks unlikely. He loathes Talent and won't do much to help him.
Rhode Island – Lincoln Chaffee's (R) luck may finally run out. He nearly lost to a far-right challenger in the primary and now he trails popular Democratic AG Sheldon Whitehouse in a very liberal state. Chaffee has always lived on a razor's edge, convincing RI voters to ignore the national GOP and pay attention to his moderate positions. Whitehouse, however, is getting a lot of mileage out of the "a vote for Chaffee helps Bush and Frist" tactic. Chaffee has less than stellar backing from the national GOP.
Open Seats
The following races feature no incumbent. For the most part they are middle-of-the-road states, which guarantees that almost all of the open seat races will be barn-burners.
Tennessee – Bill Frist (R) is retiring to begin sucking James Dobson's wang in preparation for 2008, and surprisingly the GOP doesn't seem to have given much thought to grooming his replacement. Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, the default GOP nominee, and Harold Ford, Jr. have been in a statistical dead-heat for some time. Ford is not only a rising star in the national Democratic party but he's also one of the state's most popular and magnetic politicians. This is really just too close to call. National celebrities (Cheney, Gore, etc) are starting to make their appearances. Ford has Memphis and most of the western half of the state. That may be enough.
Minnesota – Mark Dayton (D) has become a punchline in the state and is therefore retiring. State's Attorney Amy Klouchbar is the nominee against ultra-conservative Congressman Mark Kennedy. Talk about two shitty candidates vying to replace a shitty Senator. Klouchbar is a nobody, but this is a historically liberal state that voted for Kerry (hell, they voted for Mondale) and I can't see Kennedy carrying the Twin Cities. Recent polls, which are no doubt exaggerated, show Klouchbar ahead by 18 points despite having no recognizable or noteworthy characteristics.
Vermont – Local political god Jim Jeffords (I) is retiring, but House independent and liberal Bernie Sanders (I) is a virtual lock to step up to the Senate and take his place. His only serious challenger is a Democrat.
Maryland – Paul Sarbanes (D) retired. I called NAACP head Kwesi Mfume a lock to win the nomination to replace him. He lost. Mfume's hanky-panky scandals finally sank him. Ben Cardin is a weaker replacement, and the GOP is trotting out one of its strongest challengers, black Lt.
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Governor Mike Steele. Steele has tremendous popularity on a personal level, but the question is whether he can overcome A) being in a very liberal state and B) the albatross of Bush and the national GOP. This is a real ugly race. The RNC ran a patently offensive radio ad (calling the KKK a Democratic organization and claiming MLK was a Republican) that infuriated Steele and other black voters, but a Cardin aide also was found to make some George Allen-like racist comments online. Whoops. This has become a nasty, nasty race. Cardin looks like the winner but I would not count Steele out.
New Jersey – Jon Corzine (D) is now Governor, emerging victorious from the most brutal, ugly, and distasteful race in American political history two years ago. His appointed Senate fill-in Bob Menendez is technically an incumbent in this race, but he has never stood for statewide election before. Menendez should be walking in this liberal state, but there are two problems. First, his opponent is Tom Kean Jr., son of extraordinarily popular former governor Tom Kean. Second, Menendez is a piece of shit. He's a dirty, corrupt little thug who has run an amateurish campaign. Corzine didn't put much thought into appointing a replacement. Kean wins unless the burdens of the national GOP become too great – and they might.
Connecticut – Joe Lieberman (D) lost but won't quit. The lost fact in this fiasco is that Lieberman said he will not switch parties if he wins. So either way the Democrats retain this seat (at least for the purposes of their majority, since Joe votes like a Republican). The media coverage makes the odd assumption that legions of Republicans are going to tip the balance to Lieberman, but it's fuckin' Connecticut. It's like 80% Democratic. There aren't an awful lot of Republicans in play, and a consistent 10% of them are still polling for GOP Al Schlesinger. Do not be surprised if Lamont wins in another upset, but don't bet money on it.
Final Thoughts
Pointless races – 6 GOP, 6 Democratic
Safe, but not 100% – Time for some predictions. OK. Let's assume Ensign holds in NV and George Allen somehow hangs on to VA.
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That gives us 3 GOP, 7 Democratic.
Incumbents in trouble – Brown, Tester, Casey, and Whitehouse defeat DeWine, Burns, Santorum, and Chaffee. I'm being real generous and giving MO to Talent even though he trails at the moment. 1 GOP, 4 Democratic.
Open seats – Let's give TN to Corker; it's a conservative state and Ford's lead is slim. I think Kean will continue to out-campaign Menendez as well. Dayton, Sanders, and either CT Democrat look like winners. Cardin has MD and should be able to hold it. Ford (TN), Menendez (NJ) and Steele (MD) are all still in it. But for now, let's call this 2 GOP, 4 Democratic.
That results in totals of 12 GOP, 21 Democratic. The GOP gains NJ, while the Democrats pick up PA, OH, RI, and MT.
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Which would give you a Senate of 52 GOP, 48 Democrats (including Sanders-VT and Lieberman-CT with the Democrats).
However.
Please note that it is only with great hesitation and in fear of being excessively partisan that I gave MO to Talent. McCaskill has the lead right now, as does Menendez in NJ. Harold Ford also leads Corker in TN. By calling those races Republican at the moment, I'm trying to balance out recent anecdotal examples of polling that is overly favorable to the Democratic Party. But if the polls are accurate, then it's 51 Democrats and 49 GOP. And let's not forget "Macaca" Allen, who isn't exactly on solid ground….52-48?
Then the real fun begins. The GOP will go absolutely ape-shit putting a full-court press on Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Lieberman (I-CT) to switch parties. Nelson was previously offered a cabinet post in the Bush administration, and we know Lieberman is the White House's pal. If the Senate is either tied or weakly held by the Democrats (a 51-49 scenario) party switching is going to be a real hot topic for a few weeks. If only I could get my article on it published (shameless self promotion).
Comment!
Cathy says:
I can only comment on TN's races. Frist is a big-pharma, big brother politician. He needs to go away. Corker has his mommy in all his campaign ads. Creepy. Ford's family is Memphis mafia. They'll get him the office.
Rick says:
Olympia Snow (R-ME) is iconic in Maine politics. Voting her out would be like renouncing clam chowder or the Boston Red Sox, and one of those has already been done. Maine voters know no other person than her – if a strong candidate were to step to the plate, she is the de facto vote. This is almost good, coming from a Dem, because Maine breeds good any-candidates almost as good as it breeds mosquitos. They may bite, but no one likes them. A refined Maine politician is hard to come by, no matter what the party line.
Rick says:
Snowe, I should say. Damn those silent vowels and Maine education…
Ray says:
One small correction, Amy Klobuchar (not Klouchbar) is the Hennepin County Attorney (Minneapolis) – not the State Attorney. But you're right in that she's not particularly noteworthy. Her biggest asset is that her opponent, Mark Kennedy, is a freakest neocon scumbag.
Ed says:
In Illinois, we call county/district attorneys the State's Attorney. It's just a regional thing. I wasn't 100% sure of the title of that position in Minnesota – prosecutor, DA, etc.
County Attorney it is. Thanks for the correction.
Samantha says:
Wow, that took some work, Ed. Thanks for the summary!
peggy says:
your poll work has always been excellent, Ed, and as usual, I have enjoyed watching things unfold with your commentary.
Heidi says:
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